U/J keeps on keeping on.
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DislikedI will say that this thread has been insightful for me. I already take on a simple/obvious trading methodology based on engulfing bars. However, the type of bars I've been looking at have been those where the open and close of the "signal bar" engulfs the open and close of the previous bar. But if you, gspajon, have taken nearly a decade to personally verify the validity of the "range engulfing bar" (calling it this for a lack of better term) then I will definitely incorporate those into my trading plan. Thanks again for this awesome thread.Ignored
I just made that as an arbitrary rule then started gathering stats on whether or not that signal produced results...
Again its hit rate (to the first target) is 80% or better IN THE PRESENCE OF A TREND. Not against the trend but WITH the trend. I always take these signals as the rejoin a trend after a retrace to a "logical" support or resistance area. How you define "logical" is up to you...how you define trend is up to you.
I would not dare to presume that my definition is better or worse than those definitions found in text references or what you know from experience to be true. But this has worked best for me. As an example, you can clearly see that in Gold on the weekly chart a Bullish engulfing bar failed...but it was against the underlying trend...
DislikedKiwiOz and nbfx; your charts show the dichotomy of multiple time frames and how many people (including myself) become confused. KiwiOz is pointing out a long (at least I think he is) and highlighting a bullish flag. But has not accounted for what appears to be to be a lower low on the daily chart. This is a difficult call to make as the previous low wasn't really a retrace as much as it was a pause and range before continuing. This kind of thing makes chart analaysis confusing and difficult to understand at times...which is why I try to look for...Ignored
Disliked...As for your 2nd target dilemma, I guess first you must have a system of detecting targets & then you must have faith in that system. It also depends on your time frame at the time & whether you 2nd target is a wave 3 or 5. Hope this helps.Ignored
DislikedIf it's any help. I've long since traded two 'lots'. One to take quickly at 1xR and one to run until it get's killed trailing the stop behind the previous H/L. when I'm doing this I don't move my stop until the next following H/L is in place and then move to behind that. Keep adding on the dips/rallies in the same way and quickly build sizable positions that are 'payed for' by this feeding in process. I don't have to be right very often in order to make money... What I lack is your precision.....Ignored
Disliked{quote} lol...You're probably right about another decade. I know you're taking this yen movement tough. As am I. I feel I've left money on the table & I have. It's tough to look at. Moves like that don't come along all the time. Our rules of engagement might have cut our profits a 'bit' short & left some cheddar on the table. Rules also keep hard earned money in our accounts when trades work against us & sometimes at the end of the day those types of decisions will keep us in the black. Shake it off & keep doing what you're doing.Ignored
DislikedWe like simple, uncomplicated, & obvious. You'll struggle to find a more obvious direction of price than the three Yen crosses below. {image}{image}{image} The fundamental drivers are in place for continuation on all 3 of these. If you missed getting in on this move just sit tight & wait for the retrace. It will happen. & You have a very good opportunity for continuation to the upside. Or if you're like me or GS & took the trade but left money on the table & wanna take another bite at this one you'll have the chance. Well placed trades at corresponding...Ignored