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  • #6,621
  • Oct 12, 2014 12:58pm Oct 12, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} okay.. let's stop getting into a bitch fight and let me apologize to TRD if they are not backtesting results. To me, they seem to be backtesting just reading this in his post... Test Time: 2 years (2005-2006) Peace out !
Fair nuff
  • #6,622
  • Oct 12, 2014 3:35pm Oct 12, 2014 3:35pm
"...With that said, it is obviously most challenging for US based traders who are forced to FIFO and no hedging limitations requiring some major tweaks to this approach to position building. Perhaps one of the main reasons fewer traders from US are still around in this thread and on FF in general. I had a blast when I was allowed to trade from FXCM UK in 2010/11 with several 1000+ legs posted during my journey. I now have my own version based on the foundational principles of the 3 key elements of participation / low risk / growth..."

There is a US registered and regulated broker that still allows hedging and skirting FIFO rules completely legally by manipulating the accounting between the front end of MT4 (trader's) and the active end (broker's). If you would like to know who they are just PM me and I'll pass along the info.

GREEN pips to all.
  • #6,623
  • Oct 12, 2014 3:50pm Oct 12, 2014 3:50pm
I realize now that i did a mistake posting this excel document. My intention was to show that with simple entry method and long term growth approach you can get exponential profits keeping your drawdown relatively constant. I basically backed up my history chart with values for evidence. I advised people to not concetrate on the entries from this document as they are not important. VEEFX and Graeme said that many times too. Looks like most of the traders here didn't get it.

Most of the discussions here are driven by personal believes. Many people here are living in their boxes and cannot accept something new coming from outside. They measure it on their own scale and if it doesn't fit, they just reject it or ignore it.
Is he real trader? Is he profitable? Does his method work? Entry, Entry, Entry? Are his results genuine?

And even if some people tried to point into the right direction, in no time the discussion will reverse and start running in circles again. I guess this is envitable fact and it will never change.

Why can't anybody just think logically, pick some ideas, try to implement them in their methodologies and find the benefit of it?

Here i would disagree with VEEFX that backtesting is not important. There are people who cannot trade on the 5min as Graeme suggested to improve their entries. If you have a simulator with 14 years of historical tick data, you can learn and ton from just trading on it the last 14 years (especially for newbies). You can practice diversification and position building. It is good starting point.
Market is never the same, but it repeats itself over the years. So you can discover similar patterns over and over again. One problem would the trader's expectation vs. time. It is not realistic using a simulator.

VEEFX, i really appreciate that you are sharing your experience with the community. Unfortunatelly no matter how many times you repeat yourself, most forum users will not get even 10% of what you are talking about. I admire your will to help and hope you stay here longer.

TRD
  • #6,624
  • Oct 12, 2014 6:04pm Oct 12, 2014 6:04pm
Simple comments:
I prefer to deal with the market in " reactive manner rather than predictive speculative manner".
Hence , Entries have no value by which method what you should consider is full participation.
Backtest is important then move to trading demo with same amount you can risk, then jump to live and manage your risk.
Grame , VEEFX, TRD all are not selling any thing here , so kindly all focus on trading than hesitation, and distracting the real people who are focused on getting real money from the real market...
  • #6,625
  • Oct 12, 2014 10:43pm Oct 12, 2014 10:43pm
Quoting danjuma
{quote} Refresh yourself again with this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post3864418
So True,

Joel Rensink or Peter Crowns also pointed out a similar outcome based on Inside Bar and getting a trade that never returned. By their experience it was stated 1 such trade that had an initial cost base of $550 (think it was 5.5 lots on a 10 pip IB) ran to a point where that $550 materialised into something over $220,000 and that the significance of that 1 result on any trading account base is significant for just 1 trade. Now multiply that by others that would have the same success.

This thread, much like the basis for DIBS in which you take 1/2 off at 1:1 to have a "free trade" works well in theory, but managing the emotions of long tails is one of the more difficult barriers to overcome.

I have started reading back on some of the older threads, this one included as i think we tend to over complicate things too much.

If I can find the exact post to which I am referring I will post it later.

RT
  • #6,626
  • Oct 12, 2014 11:16pm Oct 12, 2014 11:16pm
Quoting Razor_trader
{quote} So True, Joel Rensink or Peter Crowns also pointed out a similar outcome based on Inside Bar and getting a trade that never returned. By their experience it was stated 1 such trade that had an initial cost base of $550 (think it was 5.5 lots on a 10 pip IB) ran to a point where that $550 materialised into something over $220,000 and that the significance of that 1 result on any trading account base is significant for just 1 trade. Now multiply that by others that would have the same success. This thread, much like the basis for DIBS in which...
Your probably referring to this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post2108541

There is a bigger problem for the majority of smaller capitalized retail traders even though Joels Rensink's utility theory and the power of long tails holds true.

I don't think anyone here is willing trade 0.05~0.1 lots and hold it for 23 months for a return of around 2.5k~5k

Even if they trade 0.5~1.0 lots for a potential return of 25k~50k after 23 months, the problem of "effort vs time" still comes into play.
  • #6,627
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:08am Oct 13, 2014 12:08am
Quoting yonseo
{quote} Your probably referring to this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post2108541 There is a bigger problem for the majority of smaller capitalized retail traders even though Joels Rensink's utility theory and the power of long tails holds true. I don't think anyone here is willing trade 0.05~0.1 lots and hold it for 23 months for a return of around 2.5k~5k Even if they trade 0.5~1.0 lots for a potential return of 25k~50k after 23 months, the problem of "effort vs time" still comes into play.
Fundamentally this is the biggest barrier and I have mentioned it a number of times, the return for time and our belief of getting an immediate fix because of our inherit "working" mind frame.

When we go to work, we get a weekly, fortnightly or monthly pay for the hours we do. We tackle trading in more or less the same way and it is one of the reasons why so many of us are trying to optimise our trading to 'remove' as many losing possibilities. Hell I would never go to work and expect to pay the boss for my hours, so why would I want to look a chart for 2 days only to give money back. This is taken further with respect to holding losing trades longer, hoping they will become winners so that we can 'profit for our time'.

The trouble with under-capitalization is that the returns are pathetic and the losses mean nothing. What is lost on people, is that trading small accounts should be more about both overcoming the psychological barriers and perfecting your trading so that one day you can trade a larger capital base. Is it little wonder that the vast majority (and I am inclusive in this) of people who do take accounts to many multiples of their starting balance, end up giving it back just as quickly, if not quicker. Yet if most of us took a step back and looked at the entire journey we are on, how many months, years or for some decades have been dedicated to trading AND what has the reward been so far. For myself, I have been going since 2005 and have had many long breaks along the way as I just cannot overcome the barriers. I am getting better at it, but still have not taken full stock of what I have learnt along the way. I can pick entries extremely well, but usually lack the time (due to work and family) to execute those trades, or I hesitate due to having lost the last 4-5 trades and this cannot be another loser. Its usually then that the winner occurs.

Long tails require immense amounts of patience, scalping requires more time then I care to look at a screen and swing trading requires a delicate balance of both screen time and patience. If you lack the ability or desire of either, then it is very difficult IMO to find long term success.

Thanks for finding the post. I still like to go back to them every now and then as a shot of confidence. Sometimes all it takes is a good attitude and suddenly charts can appear clearer.

RT
  • #6,628
  • Edited 9:12am Oct 13, 2014 8:48am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting Razor_trader
{quote} Fundamentally this is the biggest barrier and I have mentioned it a number of times, the return for time and our belief of getting an immediate fix because of our inherit "working" mind frame. When we go to work, we get a weekly, fortnightly or monthly pay for the hours we do. We tackle trading in more or less the same way and it is one of the reasons why so many of us are trying to optimise our trading to 'remove' as many losing possibilities. Hell I would never go to work and expect to pay the boss for my hours, so why would I want to...
Thanks RT for articulating your journey and challenges so well.

Edit: I just lost about 2 pages worth of typing in this post...the joy of typing from a smartphone
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,629
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:29am Oct 13, 2014 9:29am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I just lost about 2 pages worth of typing in this post...the joy of typing from a smartphone
Ouch.

Apple and Samsung have made a fortune whilst taking what Nokia and other more analogue phones used to allow the majority of people to do and that was type a message on your phone without actually looking at it.

I would pay a fortune to be able to have an apple or samsung phone that still had the old school pad on it, or an add on option. Touch phones have created a massive amount of frustration, especially from those with slightly larger fingers. I used to be able to type a message without looking, retaining a conversation where as today, that same message now takes 5 minutes, im totally distracted and miss the conversation leading to more frustration. Never before have I had to hit the delete button so often when sending a simple text.

I feel your pain.

RT
  • #6,630
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:19pm Oct 13, 2014 2:19pm
1. Participation
2. Low Risk Entry
3. Growth

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: test.png Size: 88 KB


@VEEFX: i used Forex Tester
  • #6,631
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:45pm Oct 13, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting TheRealDeal
1. Participation 2. Low Risk Entry 3. Growth {image} @VEEFX: i used Forex Tester
What were the parameters of your entry? What TF did you use for entry? Thank you
  • #6,632
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:34pm Oct 13, 2014 5:34pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
{quote} What were the parameters of your entry? What TF did you use for entry? Thank you

Forex Tester is a software that simulates trading in the Forex market, so you can learn how to trade profitably
  • #6,633
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:39pm Oct 13, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting TheRealDeal
1. Participation 2. Low Risk Entry 3. Growth {image} @VEEFX: i used Forex Tester
And not one diversification trade??
  • #6,634
  • Oct 13, 2014 6:50pm Oct 13, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} And not one diversification trade??
You guys are again missing the point TRD is trying to convey.
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,635
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:53pm Oct 13, 2014 8:53pm
Quoting TheRealDeal
1. Participation 2. Low Risk Entry 3. Growth {image} @VEEFX: i used Forex Tester
Dear TRD,

Based on your latest attachment showing your weekly EU orders, I find that there's an average of 1 order per few weeks. Example, during the ranging phase of your EU chart, you have a gap of about 13 weeks between orders. If using your H4 entry, why is there so few orders? I have about 2-3 orders since yesterday based on engulfing H4 bars. Am I doing something wrong here?

Kindly advice and thank you for sharing.
  • #6,636
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:46pm Oct 13, 2014 10:46pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
{quote} What were the parameters of your entry? What TF did you use for entry? Thank you
Posts like this is going to make TRD leave.
  • #6,637
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:12pm Oct 13, 2014 11:12pm
As you can figure out, i didn't enter on every engulf. Look where the surviving positions are. Best place to survive right? Look how smoother the first part of the profit chart is compared to the last test i did. Why?

There is plenty of information on this chart. If you don't bother create your own, you should spend hours to analyze mine.

And you will learn:

How i entered?
Where i entered?
How i took profit?
How i diversified?
Why my equity curve looks like this?


I won't reveal the answer to these questions, because you will never get it. Everybody has to go through his/her own journey in order to succeed.

I hope that helped


TRD
  • #6,638
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:20pm Oct 13, 2014 11:20pm
guys
excuse me but I dont see anything special on this chart.
this is most easy & stable way tp trade. I have bunch of codes for EURUSD for 20 past years tested such entry exits.
I call those retirement algorithms. tooks 3-5 years for each cycle. at the end there is gain.
if you traders are patient you can built your own way with basic
RSI chart + 2-5 years of patience + Broker or Bank that will not disaaper in the time being

trade well

Quoting TheRealDeal
1. Participation 2. Low Risk Entry 3. Growth {image} @VEEFX: i used Forex Tester
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #6,639
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:45pm Oct 13, 2014 11:45pm
Quoting TheRealDeal
1. Participation 2. Low Risk Entry 3. Growth {image} @VEEFX: i used Forex Tester
Its amazing how this chart and graph can illustrate long tails. Of course along the way there would be losers, BE and small winners as evident in your balance line, but the equity growth of maintaining trades open replicates again I think the premise of what people like Graeme, Peter Crowns and Joel Rensink have said with the advantages of multiple winning trades and long term growth.

The only downside to the graph is that it is over 2 years and we all know that there will be great periods (particularly in the EUR/USD that went from this sub .90 to 1.50-1.60's) Today we face some bigger challenges but without know the future, if you're going to trade this way you need to be prepared for some bumpy periods.

I am looking at charts now trying to work out which direction is going to be the best for building some initial legs and starting the process but seeing the unwinding that is occuring the in the markets due to the QE easing/ending, its difficult to work out which options I have to trade will be best effected by the news and outcomes.

Thanks again
  • #6,640
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:55pm Oct 13, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting Pipotron
{quote} Dear TRD, Based on your latest attachment showing your weekly EU orders, I find that there's an average of 1 order per few weeks. Example, during the ranging phase of your EU chart, you have a gap of about 13 weeks between orders. If using your H4 entry, why is there so few orders? I have about 2-3 orders since yesterday based on engulfing H4 bars. Am I doing something wrong here? Kindly advice and thank you for sharing.
You need to realize that not all engulfings are the same. Noobs who learn chart patterns from books or some price action based websites end up trading blindly every engulf pattern they see. What they don't realize until much later is that the engulf patterns that do seem to workout in books and websites are based on charts that are cherry picked.

A classic example of noob engulfing trading can be seen here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=345838

If you want to trade engulfing patterns to extract long tails you need to find those that other traders are most likely unwilling to take. Usually such engulfing setups go against the short term trend (Daily or lower) and usually in line with the long term trend (Weekly or higher).
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