Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
Building an equity millipede
- #6,568
- Edited 3:46pm Oct 9, 2014 3:30pm | Edited 3:46pm
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: lonely | 2,261 Posts
Hello Traders!
I am sorry to interrupt your hot discussion about who i am, but i decided to backup what i said in my last posts with some backtesting. In no way i am trying to prove myself, however i will try to prove my point.
Unfortunatelly i cannot provide you backtest data of thousands of trades, because i am relatively busy.
420 Trades overall: 90 Wins, 156 BE, 174 loses.
Test Time: 2 years (2005-2006)
Method: On H4 TF wait until engulf or outside bar forms (bullish or bearish - we enter both sell and buy regardless of the trend)
Entry: On retrace: Set pending order between 30% and 50% of the engulf candle in the direction of the candle (30% only for strong trend)
Stops: Behind low/high of the engulf or wait until H4 closed behind engulf (second SL technic is not recommended, produced huge losses occasionally)
Set to BE: 1-2 bars after in profit
Trade Management: If in buy trade and oposite setup develops (bearish engulf), set it to BE or exit buy trade immediately and set pending on the bearish engulf.
Diversify: At Weekly/Daily major swing points i close majority of the positions and leave 2-5 running for infinite yield.
After 2 years close all open postion.
Account Deposit: 100000$
Lot size: 1 standard lot=100k - constant. This is very important.
Average loss to establish all positions: 235 dollars/trade = 0.2% loss per trade on the initial deposit (this is equivalent to 23.5 pips per trade on H4 TF)
Account Balance after 2 years: 415095.20$ (i will change my lot size per position to 2 standart lots now)
Please notice i diversified actively until Okt 2005. After that i did very few. The purpose was to show, that with constant drawdown you can achieve exponential profits.
These were the open positions i closed at the end of 2006, because our test finished. I will never close all at once in my life account
i hope that helped
TRD
I am sorry to interrupt your hot discussion about who i am, but i decided to backup what i said in my last posts with some backtesting. In no way i am trying to prove myself, however i will try to prove my point.
Unfortunatelly i cannot provide you backtest data of thousands of trades, because i am relatively busy.
420 Trades overall: 90 Wins, 156 BE, 174 loses.
Test Time: 2 years (2005-2006)
Method: On H4 TF wait until engulf or outside bar forms (bullish or bearish - we enter both sell and buy regardless of the trend)
Entry: On retrace: Set pending order between 30% and 50% of the engulf candle in the direction of the candle (30% only for strong trend)
Stops: Behind low/high of the engulf or wait until H4 closed behind engulf (second SL technic is not recommended, produced huge losses occasionally)
Set to BE: 1-2 bars after in profit
Trade Management: If in buy trade and oposite setup develops (bearish engulf), set it to BE or exit buy trade immediately and set pending on the bearish engulf.
Diversify: At Weekly/Daily major swing points i close majority of the positions and leave 2-5 running for infinite yield.
After 2 years close all open postion.
Account Deposit: 100000$
Lot size: 1 standard lot=100k - constant. This is very important.
Average loss to establish all positions: 235 dollars/trade = 0.2% loss per trade on the initial deposit (this is equivalent to 23.5 pips per trade on H4 TF)
Account Balance after 2 years: 415095.20$ (i will change my lot size per position to 2 standart lots now)
Please notice i diversified actively until Okt 2005. After that i did very few. The purpose was to show, that with constant drawdown you can achieve exponential profits.
These were the open positions i closed at the end of 2006, because our test finished. I will never close all at once in my life account
i hope that helped
TRD
- #6,571
- Oct 9, 2014 10:34pm Oct 9, 2014 10:34pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts
{quote} Here you go good sir. Many GREEN pips to you. {file}
- #6,575
- Oct 10, 2014 12:35am Oct 10, 2014 12:35am
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: lonely | 2,261 Posts
@stewrigh: i see you deleted your post, but i managed to read it anyway 
Look at the monthly chart on EURUSD. Is it trending for the last 10 years? Hmm, not really. Can we make money on it? Oh, yeah! The yearly range was between 1160 and 3700 pips. You have plenty of time to diversify. Why do you think i use the extremes? Works best in ranging markets.
@pa_pips: It would work best for the "candle immediately following". If market starts to slow down, produce narrow bars we will lose the momentum. And that is what we are trading! The momentum coming from the H4 engulf candle!
Do some backtesting to backup your observation. You should ask yourself: How should the candle after the engulf candle look like for the position to survive as long as posible? It should be momentum candle too!
TRD
Look at the monthly chart on EURUSD. Is it trending for the last 10 years? Hmm, not really. Can we make money on it? Oh, yeah! The yearly range was between 1160 and 3700 pips. You have plenty of time to diversify. Why do you think i use the extremes? Works best in ranging markets.@pa_pips: It would work best for the "candle immediately following". If market starts to slow down, produce narrow bars we will lose the momentum. And that is what we are trading! The momentum coming from the H4 engulf candle!
Do some backtesting to backup your observation. You should ask yourself: How should the candle after the engulf candle look like for the position to survive as long as posible? It should be momentum candle too!
TRD
- #6,576
- Oct 10, 2014 12:47am Oct 10, 2014 12:47am
- | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Live the dream.... | 1,153 Posts
- #6,577
- Oct 10, 2014 12:51am Oct 10, 2014 12:51am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts
@stewrigh: i see you deleted your post, but i managed to read it anyway
Now I'm going through the ss you posted and first thing I notice is that the DD is never as big as I thought it would be.
- #6,579
- Oct 10, 2014 2:44am Oct 10, 2014 2:44am
TRD, thanks once again for sharing.
I am trying to understand how you manage your trades, I'm having a bit of a tough time.
Here is a screenshot of your first 7 trades and diversification. Numbers refer to rows on xls.
I can understand 3 and 4 are BE because of bullish engulf after 4.
5 is a buy, but after bearish engulf closed out.
6 is sell after new bearish engulf.
7 and 8 reached diversification. Am I guessing correct that stop was same as for 6?
9 was taken as a 50% of a bigger move (starting from 6) - not a 4H engulf. How come bias was not changed to look long after 8? (there was a bullish engulf)
this is just the beginning, I can find other places I cant understand.
for example, trades 416 and 417 reached final destination.
Both are buys, 417 is 6 days after 416 at a lower price. Shouldn't 416 have been stopped out or BE'd?
Of course I don't expect you to remember what went on, just my observations.
thanks again,
aristides.
I am trying to understand how you manage your trades, I'm having a bit of a tough time.
Here is a screenshot of your first 7 trades and diversification. Numbers refer to rows on xls.
I can understand 3 and 4 are BE because of bullish engulf after 4.
5 is a buy, but after bearish engulf closed out.
6 is sell after new bearish engulf.
7 and 8 reached diversification. Am I guessing correct that stop was same as for 6?
9 was taken as a 50% of a bigger move (starting from 6) - not a 4H engulf. How come bias was not changed to look long after 8? (there was a bullish engulf)
this is just the beginning, I can find other places I cant understand.
for example, trades 416 and 417 reached final destination.
Both are buys, 417 is 6 days after 416 at a lower price. Shouldn't 416 have been stopped out or BE'd?
Of course I don't expect you to remember what went on, just my observations.
thanks again,
aristides.