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EUR/CHF

  • #12,441
  • Oct 6, 2014 2:28am Oct 6, 2014 2:28am
what is the high expected for today
Trading by EA
  • #12,442
  • Oct 6, 2014 5:40am Oct 6, 2014 5:40am
Quoting Paz
{quote} "Psychological mark" ? A currency peg is anything but that. I don't even believe it can trade lower than 1.2050.
It's good to be right sometime. Nice movement today and very interesting discussion. Of course, there are always contrarians.
  • #12,443
  • Oct 6, 2014 6:27am Oct 6, 2014 6:27am
I just had a preliminary reading about the Swiss poll, of which I learned today exactly.

In my opinion it doesn't have much chances to go above 25% yes votes.

The reason is that when it comes to people that votes by sentiment, they look at their wallet and find to have a a strong currency already when it comes to buy their imported goods. That is, the small ultra-conservative party that introduced the poll, cannot count on a perceived currency devaluation to base.

And about people that votes with their brains, they will easily understand that the drop in currency gold backing is simple due to gold loosing value and becoming less attractive. Plus they will be subject to a campaign for "no" going across all parties and industries.

So I think there other, more important factors that will influence SNB's actions about the floor in the future, and CHF trading in general.
  • #12,444
  • Oct 6, 2014 8:42am Oct 6, 2014 8:42am
What's driving the massive spike?!
  • #12,445
  • Oct 6, 2014 10:35am Oct 6, 2014 10:35am
Hi Paz, let me correct you. The "small ultra-conservative party" (SVP) is the strongest single party in the National Council, having 54 seats out of 200. Their caracteristic leader, who is a wealthy industrial boss (Blocher) has played a major role in the scandal, which led to the assignment of the previous SNB boss. (Hildebrandt). I think, the referendum should be taken very seriously, should be part of everyone's strategy. I cannot see anything else what could force the SNB to drop the floor, except for this. Remember, there is no more DeutschMark, but the CHF floor against the DM was never droped.
I think you are right - it will be a "No". I live in Switzerland in the last 20 years, and my experience shows, the swiss reject everything what might put their jobs in danger. There will be a very strong campaign for "No".
By the way, for us ECh bulls a "Yes" would not mean an immediate catastrophe. The SNB would loose flexibility big time.
  • #12,446
  • Oct 6, 2014 10:41am Oct 6, 2014 10:41am
Sorry, Hildebrand has not assigned but resigned...
  • #12,447
  • Oct 6, 2014 11:03am Oct 6, 2014 11:03am
Thank you Devabala for the clarification. I made my statement based on this piece of news:

Quote
Members of the Swiss parliament’s lower house voted 129 to 20 with 25 abstentions today against the plan,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-snb-gold.html

Seems like that if SVP can't even put together their own 54 votes, they will have much more trouble in convincing the rest of the population.
  • #12,448
  • Oct 6, 2014 11:59pm Oct 6, 2014 11:59pm
Just another reason to confuse EC bulls. Gold Reserve Oil Reserve Damn reserve not the generator of EC movement. Can you understand that PEOPLE

Anyone remembers Scotland Independence Referendum??

When many were living in illusions of 1.75- 1.80 or 1.40-1.50!!!, at that time I said there will not be a disaster for GBP during or after that date. If the Yes campaign wins GU will weaken a little(like it's now), if the NO Campaign wins it will strengthen some little then correct its trend movement according to new developing conditions. That's what happened!

The same for EC, understand that big players know how to regulate pairs
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #12,449
  • Oct 7, 2014 12:35am Oct 7, 2014 12:35am
Quoting J.Clinton
Just another reason to confuse EC bulls. Gold Reserve Oil Reserve Damn reserve not the generator of EC movement. Can you understand that PEOPLE Anyone remembers Scotland Independence Referendum?? When many were living in illusions of 1.75- 1.80 or 1.40-1.50!!!, at that time I said there will not be a disaster for GBP during or after that date. If the Yes campaign wins GU will weaken a little(like it's now),...
I think this is mainly a technical move (nice double bottom @1.2055). Maybe supported by the fact that Ukraine crisis gets more and more out of focus.
  • #12,450
  • Oct 7, 2014 4:14am Oct 7, 2014 4:14am
Nice correction, I need this as I have some sell orders.
  • #12,451
  • Oct 7, 2014 4:55am Oct 7, 2014 4:55am
Feels like volatility is slowly coming back to this pair
  • #12,452
  • Oct 8, 2014 2:13am Oct 8, 2014 2:13am
Quoting JamesCaan
Feels like volatility is slowly coming back to this pair

Again the pair volatility low
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  • #12,453
  • Oct 8, 2014 2:47am Oct 8, 2014 2:47am
Seems to be in a tight range again.
  • #12,454
  • Oct 8, 2014 5:18am Oct 8, 2014 5:18am
Need to see if 1.2130 is a strong resistance as it seems, and if can be related with EU resistance of 1.2670.
I have no problems shorting now.
  • #12,455
  • Oct 8, 2014 7:11am Oct 8, 2014 7:11am
Quoting Paz
Need to see if 1.2130 is a strong resistance as it seems, and if can be related with EU resistance of 1.2670. I have no problems shorting now.

for Now it seem on meter to me EUR AND USD have both strong enough and CHF is weaker so that time if EURUSD remain rangebound the EURchf will try to break new high
Trading by EA
  • #12,456
  • Oct 9, 2014 5:35am Oct 9, 2014 5:35am
Quoting JamesCaan
Interesting comments from Danthine today. He suggested fair value is 1.28 - 1.30 and negative rates are a possibility. He reiterated that the SNB could raise the cap in the next few days to 1.25 to take it more in line with fair value. Things could get interesting!
Link?
  • #12,457
  • Oct 9, 2014 6:07am Oct 9, 2014 6:07am
Bloomberg.
  • #12,458
  • Oct 9, 2014 7:33am Oct 9, 2014 7:33am
Quoting JamesCaan
He reiterated that the SNB could raise the cap in the next few days to 1.25
Don't see the above comments anywhere?
  • #12,459
  • Oct 9, 2014 7:40am Oct 9, 2014 7:40am
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Don't see the above comments anywhere?
No, the guy keeps on telling BS like this since a while... We should almost complain to a regulator about such behaviour.
  • #12,460
  • Oct 9, 2014 8:55am Oct 9, 2014 8:55am
Again nice intraday trend to generate more opportunity to buy when it finds support, it has to be seen where.
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