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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #401,821
  • Oct 4, 2014 7:41am Oct 4, 2014 7:41am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hi Billly, My MA's don't really tell me much(both are flat) but still some way to go to the 61 fib. Must admit I was bullish cable til it broke a few of my lines last week {image}
if your a fib trader you might see this
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  • #401,822
  • Oct 4, 2014 7:46am Oct 4, 2014 7:46am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} yes i thought you where Stew i hope you did not lose much, i have to laugh when you look at the chart now it looks so simple ,and yet we look for things that we might want to happen and not see what is happening this is always the case though as if your in a long trade and its going short ones own mind hates to admit were wrong and pig headedness keeps us in a losing trade until it is to later and one losers more than one should of , but thats life buddy we are all guilty of it in any thing that we do..Best regards E
Nope not too bad - thank god for stop losses lol.

Yep everyone spends loadsa time trying to predict what's gonna happen instead of just following the price when it happens
  • #401,823
  • Oct 4, 2014 7:47am Oct 4, 2014 7:47am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} well done it looks like you had a good week ,,sorry the currency broker bit was joking ,,in the healthcare business , hence the inspection last week,,flat no trades still thinking about work and sutch,, need to see what happens sunday/monday could go to the month tl 5220 area ,,could go 61%then back up,,pass the 61% then look at the numbers on the right of the chart {image}{image}{image}{image} gl...
I see a possible bull divergence at your D1 chart at RSI indicator but problem is monthly is very bear. Then i wonder if is possible near pullback before other big fall...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #401,824
  • Oct 4, 2014 7:52am Oct 4, 2014 7:52am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} if your a fib trader you might see this {image}
Not really - I just like to be aware of them if I'm in a trade - might tighten the stop at key fib levels for instance.
  • #401,825
  • Oct 4, 2014 7:58am Oct 4, 2014 7:58am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} I see a possible bull divergence at your D1 chart at RSI indicator but problem is monthly is very bear. Then i wonder if is possible near pullback before other big fall...
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yes , close up on the day the indi was great you can see the crossover emas then down,if we put fib ext on the chart from 2 different ranges the 2nd 100% comes out at the 61%fib on the month chart .thats if i have put them on right . not shaw ??
  • #401,826
  • Oct 4, 2014 7:59am Oct 4, 2014 7:59am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Not really - I just like to be aware of them if I'm in a trade - might tighten the stop at key fib levels for instance.
well guys we will soon see ,,thanks for your input thats me now until sunday ,,gl E
  • #401,827
  • Oct 4, 2014 8:22am Oct 4, 2014 8:22am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} {image} yes , close up on the day the indi was great you can see the crossover emas then down,if we put fib ext on the chart from 2 different ranges the 2nd 100% comes out at the 61%fib on the month chart .thats if i have put them on right . not shaw ??
I think next pullback at 58xxx gap. Enough space for brake Friday big bear candle inertia. Really i don't use fibs. I prefer see high TF PA for try know where price can stop... Always have a similar pattern after big breakout. But not enough experience for perfect reading.
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #401,828
  • Oct 4, 2014 8:32am Oct 4, 2014 8:32am
Quoting Bones
eur nzd and gbp nzd are interesting on w1 {image}
Hi Bones,

Yes she is. Pretty sure posted weekly while back.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #401,829
  • Oct 4, 2014 10:27am Oct 4, 2014 10:27am
Quoting Bones
I really don't think its going that low at all , {quote} {image}

i know this is a barrier tony but somehow i think it will break it this time..anyways the fact that u think it wont go this low is good i need to get out trouble and start trading properly..with a friggin stop..lol

U and GM give me hope
  • #401,830
  • Oct 4, 2014 10:28am Oct 4, 2014 10:28am
Quoting Makavell
{quote} Keep your pants back on bro. I was actually talking bout someone else
strange... i dont think the post was quoting you though...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #401,831
  • Oct 4, 2014 10:28am Oct 4, 2014 10:28am
Quoting pips29
{quote} here you are {file}

thank u
  • #401,832
  • Oct 4, 2014 11:25am Oct 4, 2014 11:25am
Looking at the next level to watch at 1.59150. What's your thoughts guys?
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  • #401,833
  • Oct 4, 2014 11:32pm Oct 4, 2014 11:32pm
Hi guys, got a question since I don't use fibs am not sure what the answer is.... but see diagram above... we retrace too 61.8 then move too the extension of 61.8... is that the 161.8 extension the golden ratio in the diagram or is 161.8 a further 100 pips away??? cheers

R
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  • #401,834
  • Oct 4, 2014 11:38pm Oct 4, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting HDA
Good Morning Forex Factory Members and Guests The GBP/USD options expiry for Thursday, October 2, 2014 are as follows: 1.6285 -pay out US$181 million 1.6265/70 -pay out US$319 million 1.6240 -pay out US$270 million 1.6215 -Market Price at 10:55am Eastern, Wednesday, October 01, 2014 1.6200 -pay out US$308 million 1.6100 -pay out US$1.64 Billion -Do Not Ignore AND The USD/CAD options expiry for Thursday, October 2, 2014 are as follows: 1.1670 - BULLS TARGET 1.1185 - Market Price at 10:55am Eastern, Wednesday, October 1, 2014 1.1150 - pay out US$150...
HDA which option subscription service do you subscribe too??? Also do you get the option expiry dates days weeks in advance of price touching or on the same day??? cheers R
  • #401,835
  • Oct 5, 2014 12:11am Oct 5, 2014 12:11am
Quoting mrhb30jr
hi all GBPUSD monthly chart A graph explaining itself.... more lower in progress... cheers {image}
Hi all,

A graph explaining itself.... more lower in progress...
here is on H1 Time frame, monthly tm, weekly tm and daily tm.....
all agree to going lower.....

cheers
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  • #401,836
  • Oct 5, 2014 2:43am Oct 5, 2014 2:43am
Quoting deylon
What is the bottom for this currency pair?
The trend is obviously very bearish but there are some considerations to be made in favor of the bulls, indicating that we might be close to a bounce/retracement at the very least:

The recent selloff post Scottish referendum is obviously mainly attributable to overall USD strength. While this overall trend is likely to continue in the long run, the USD has been rallying for 12 weeks straight and according to recent market reports (COT) long USD positions are at historical extreme levels, which gives a high probability for an imminent correction. The most recent COT reports also indicates that large speculators have been increasing their net long exposure to GBP/USD futures (the only pair where they have done so). While that did not stop PA breaking to new lows last week, it tells us that large investors might be looking for a bottom around these levels.

Cable has been the worst performing pair last week, which does not reflect the fundamental picture on a relative basis, particularly in view of interest rate hike expectations. This might indicate that the market is fundamentally oversold on a short term basis.

Technically we are approaching another level of technical support at the 1.5850/1.5900 area and we are still close enough to the 1.6000 level (50% retracement of the 1.4815/1.7190 bull run from 7/2013 to 7/2014). So while more downside is definitely possible, I see no more than approximately 100 points form current levels and a bounce from here is also not to be excluded.

Risk events next week include BOE rate decision and statement and FOMC minutes. Excluding big surprises from those 2 events and/or from other economic data, I would expect the above considerations to be validated and the market to bounce back towards the 1.61/1.6150 area into short term resistance....
  • #401,837
  • Edited 8:24am Oct 5, 2014 6:28am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting RussJ
Hi guys, got a question since I don't use fibs am not sure what the answer is.... but see diagram above... we retrace too 61.8 then move too the extension of 61.8... is that the 161.8 extension the golden ratio in the diagram or is 161.8 a further 100 pips away??? cheers R {image}
61.8 is different from 161.8...........so yes 100 pips more............(161.8 ext would be -100 on the fib retracement)
  • #401,838
  • Oct 5, 2014 6:39am Oct 5, 2014 6:39am
Quoting ez0770
{quote} The trend is obviously very bearish but there are some considerations to be made in favor of the bulls, indicating that we might be close to a bounce/retracement at the very least: The recent selloff post Scottish referendum is obviously mainly attributable to overall USD strength. While this overall trend is likely to continue in the long run, the USD has been rallying for 12 weeks straight and according to recent market reports (COT) long USD positions are at historical extreme levels, which gives a high probability for an imminent correction....
Thanks for your insight
Whenever i buy the price goes up & whenever i sell the the price goes down!
  • #401,839
  • Oct 5, 2014 7:02am Oct 5, 2014 7:02am
I agree with EZ. I imagine Bulls are now positioning for a bottom, although I don't think we have quite reached it as yet. The downside for GBP is that the recent manufacturing data has been poorer than forecast by Carney. He has had his hands slapped by the governments select committee for the way he attempted to 'talk up' the UK economy back in July. He is now giving off a more realistic and doveish tone in recent speeches, with respect to the likelihood of rate hike in the coming months. Until the manufacturing, export and employment data falls into line, I think we might see cable fall again even if it bounces back to the 1.61 area in the coming days. The recent data coming out from the US is too strong in comparison, and unless Carney can convince traders that a rate hike is almost certain in first quarter 2015, then we will see this pair drop to the 2014 low of 1.5853.

Myself, I took a short position on the pair from 1.6416 as I missed the train from 1.70. I will continue to hold my short and move my SL to 1.6220. I don't think the UK rate decision on Thursday will move the market as the poor manufacturing data will dictate that the UK interest rate hike should be delayed until at least the second quarter . I reckon the only thing to influence the next move will be Wednesdays release of the minutes from the US FOMC meeting in Sept. I'll be holding my short position until then.
  • #401,840
  • Oct 5, 2014 9:11am Oct 5, 2014 9:11am
Dollar index nearly hitting the monthly trendline
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