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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #48,681
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:58pm Oct 1, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} You...longed at 109.9? How much did you buy, and how much leverage do you have remaining? No offense, but buying near 110 was suicidal, even under bullish assumptions. At any rate, I recommend you check unemployment data, consumer index, and other statistics for both the U.S. and Japan respectively. I also suggest identify the key points of support/resistance in the past 7 years. Also, I STRONGLY recommend you read up about Abenomics (the ruling economic system in Japan right now, under the ministration of prime minister Abe Shinzo). That's...
Leverage? 50 to 1, and margin left? 19k, im up on my EU trade though, thanx for your advice, but i spend more then half of everyday (if not all day) behind every move thas made. Like i said i dont like my postitioning, but also didnt expect a pullback of this magnitude, i base half my trading off of fundamentals, which is why i buy on pulbacks, i dont really use indicators either, (rsi on my chart though) price qction and fundies only for me
  • #48,682
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:02pm Oct 1, 2014 4:02pm
i have 4k margin, longed 0.4 lots. well yesterday i longed and tp-ed at 110 this morning, so i decided to relong due to the news today. but it backfired ridiculously... terrible trading done by me.. but i am just looking to recoupe and just break even, because my projection is to 112. any advice?
  • #48,683
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:08pm Oct 1, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} Leverage? 50 to 1, and margin left? 19k, im up on my EU trade though, thanx for your advice, but i spend more then half of everyday (if not all day) behind every move thas made. Like i said i dont like my postitioning, but also didnt expect a pullback of this magnitude, i base half my trading off of fundamentals, which is why i buy on pulbacks, i dont really use indicators either, (rsi on my chart though) price qction and fundies only for me
You should just close or reduce your position; 110.10 was a top to end Q3 and seasonally, the start of a new quarter is likely to bring a reversal. Nikkei even dropped like a stone. This correction is long overdue and likely to continue for a few weeks now as more and more retail traders start to buy, hoping to ride this slowing bull train.

Always remember, buy low, sell high
  • #48,684
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:10pm Oct 1, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting cobracoder
hold your longs guys we will visit 110.xx again i am holding mine
- Where did u long it? and Where ur SL is?
  • #48,685
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:13pm Oct 1, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting DonaldPump
{quote} You should just close or reduce your position; 110.10 was a top to end Q3 and seasonally, the start of a new quarter is likely to bring a reversal. Nikkei even dropped like a stone. This correction is long overdue and likely to continue for a few weeks now as more and more retail traders start to buy, hoping to ride this slowing bull train. Always remember, buy low, sell high
Good point good point
  • #48,686
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:18pm Oct 1, 2014 4:18pm
Quoting DonaldPump
{quote} You should just close or reduce your position; 110.10 was a top to end Q3 and seasonally, the start of a new quarter is likely to bring a reversal. Nikkei even dropped like a stone. This correction is long overdue and likely to continue for a few weeks now as more and more retail traders start to buy, hoping to ride this slowing bull train. Always remember, buy low, sell high
you think ? i think we go more up...108.77 and then bounce up
  • #48,687
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:30pm Oct 1, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting cobracoder
{quote} you think ? i think we go more up...108.77 and then bounce up
Friday's news will provide more clarity. Since USD strength right now is based on speculative rate hikes, which the Fed has said are contingent in part upon unemployment, the market is going to be very sensitive to any missed forecasts.

Will this pair continue higher? Probably.

Will it do so this week? Doubtful.
  • #48,688
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:45pm Oct 1, 2014 4:45pm
First signs of life!! Need to get this puppy up to 9.30 ish before asia open. Then we are golden.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #48,689
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:54pm Oct 1, 2014 4:54pm
Quoting mitrapips
First signs of life!! Need to get this puppy up to 9.30 ish before asia open. Then we are golden.

Now the question I have is this: up to what point will the USD/JPY retrace until the next major USD event (unemployment claims)?

The unemployment claims is due in the next 18.5 hours, and the USD/JPY opened up with a daily low of what, 108.86?

Where will you place your guesses? 109.5? 109.8?
  • #48,690
  • Edited 5:13pm Oct 1, 2014 4:59pm | Edited 5:13pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Now the question I have is this: up to what point will the USD/JPY retrace until the next major USD event (unemployment claims)? The unemployment claims is due in the next 18.5 hours, and the USD/JPY opened up with a daily low of what, 108.86? Where will you place your guesses? 109.5? 109.8?
If this is indeed the seed of a reversal we are seeing (i hope so) then this should test 109.5. What happens after that will depend on the price action in the next few hours and I cannot speculate right now. If we can close 109.3 before asia open we are making a solid H4 reversal situation which means that this can keep going up till tomorrow's news release (a retest of the highs, most likely). Again too early to tell. Need to watch PA closely. But any reversal or even a decent breather should take this up to 109.5 (last asian session close and .50 level). If it loses steam around there close your positions and run because asia will be ready to start shorting.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #48,691
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:15pm Oct 1, 2014 5:15pm
lets see what this asian session brings us, 108.83 looks good for now, 108.5 and 108.2 are nice further support levels, last is 107.5, wont drop any lower then that, IF it even breaks through 108.5 imo

LETS GO BULLS

(at least this is what my crystal ball says) :nerd:
  • #48,692
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:16pm Oct 1, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} If this is indeed the seed of a reversal we are seeing (i hope so) then this should test 109.5. What happens after that will depend on the price action in the next few hours and I cannot speculate right now. If we can close 109.3 before asia open we are making a solid H4 reversal situation which means that this can keep going up till tomorrow's news release (a retest of the highs, most likely). Again too early to tell. Need to watch PA closely. But any reversal or even a decent breather should take this up to 109.5 (last asian session close...
  • #48,693
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:01pm Oct 1, 2014 8:01pm
If this is indeed the seed of a reversal we are seeing (i hope so) then this should test 109.5. What happens after that will depend on the price action in the next few hours and I cannot speculate right now. If we can close 109.3 before asia open we are making a solid H4 reversal situation which means that this can keep going up till tomorrow's news release (a retest of the highs, most likely). Again too early to tell. Need to watch PA closely. But any reversal or even a decent breather should take this up to 109.5 (last asian session close and .50 level). If it loses steam around there close your positions and run because asia will be ready to start shorting.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 26 KB


Which PA r you guy looking at ?
  • #48,694
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:23pm Oct 1, 2014 8:23pm
Everyone wanted their currency weak, Why not the us ? They are already talking about how high the us currency > may be they will bring it down on this friday NFP
  • #48,695
  • Edited 8:54pm Oct 1, 2014 8:32pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting kabukyboy
If this is indeed the seed of a reversal we are seeing (i hope so) then this should test 109.5. What happens after that will depend on the price action in the next few hours and I cannot speculate right now. If we can close 109.3 before asia open we are making a solid H4 reversal situation which means that this can keep going up till tomorrow's news release (a retest of the highs, most likely). Again too early to tell. Need to watch PA closely. But any reversal or even a decent breather should take this up to 109.5 (last asian session close and...
I'm almost the same as you. I'm focusing on the three main figures: 109.3, 109.5, 109.6/109.7

My stance is fairly obvious to most people, but this is how it goes.

Right now, if you all would direct your attention to the ADX (average directional index) in the 5 minute chart, you'll see that both the bullish and bearish momentum keep swapping places back and forth between the upper 108.900s and 109.0s. I've counted nearly a dozen times within the same price zone. An apt analogy would be a tug of war. In other words, This can be considered a decently reliable temporary support, and given that investors have already begun to slow down on the bullish run in favor of a correction, we will likely not see the bears moving in for some time. You can only go down so much when the RSI is already so low for prolonged periods of time. That leaves the lower 109s as the slightly more likely direction for the pair to move, as shown by the USD/JPY's attempts to breach 109.1.

The short term rebound isn't guaranteed, but if so, it's just as you said-109.5 will be the biggest hurdle. I won't explain more seeing as how you've already done that. For me however, we may see the currency pair lightly grazing past 109.6 before the major shorting begins, given that the pair did try to breach it in a small rebound after dropping from 110 to 109.5. If it weren't for the disappointing ISM results, 109.6 could have been the next main support.

If this see-sawing movement continues for 11 more hours, we need to watch the unemployment claims-it may provide a significant reprieve to those still at longs, or be anther major confirmation of an impending correction.

My primary long is at 109.6, so I'll definitely take a hit from this. It's possible for there to be one more final bullish run to the 110 mark before the selling begins, but risk management makes it difficult for me to hold onto the pair after 109.5: the risk of loss to profit ratio is simply not worth it. There's better opportunities to be had elsewhere.

This of course, focuses primarily on Thursday. Friday is a completely different matter, given that it's the end of the week and that it has FOUR CONSECUTIVE HIGH PROFILE STATISTICS DUE TO ARRIVE. What's worse is that they happen only a few hours before the market closes, so expect to see a LOT of volatility then.


Any thoughts and/or opinions about this?
  • #48,696
  • Oct 1, 2014 9:08pm Oct 1, 2014 9:08pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 26 KB


There is also divergent
  • #48,697
  • Oct 1, 2014 9:26pm Oct 1, 2014 9:26pm
shorting session for the dollar .. biggest on the usd jpy
  • #48,698
  • Oct 1, 2014 9:35pm Oct 1, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting Liam0530
shorting session for the dollar .. biggest on the usd jpy
usd/cad getting hit pretty hard
  • #48,699
  • Oct 1, 2014 10:02pm Oct 1, 2014 10:02pm
Oh my... Is this the reversal that's going to stick ? Getting hit very hard...
  • #48,700
  • Oct 1, 2014 10:15pm Oct 1, 2014 10:15pm
bears getting some revenge on us bulls , hello 108.5
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