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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #48,661
  • Oct 1, 2014 2:00pm Oct 1, 2014 2:00pm
PA right now looks like the fag end of a move. Expecting a long green candle in the next few hours. However, it might just be able to push it to 109 before buyers jump in. Way oversold imo.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #48,662
  • Oct 1, 2014 2:00pm Oct 1, 2014 2:00pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday YEN Players Anything above 100 is risky with this pair Been changing pending longs lower Man 109.2 hit one at 109 Does not inspire confidence The Grand masters feel the need to give the peasants a crash course in money management
definetely the big boys playing with our money.. smh,

thats forex though folks
  • #48,663
  • Oct 1, 2014 2:36pm Oct 1, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I'm currently sitting on my 109.6. The market'll have to dip to 108.80 before I'll have to close my trade. It'll likely stop at 109.2-109.0, but I'm adding those 20 extra pips as a measure against shakeouts. Still, if I don't like the hourly chart, I may have to take a significant loss and close up shop.
In my humble opinion, I don't think this stampede down will endure in the Asian session. I don't know where it's target is, but this excitement should subside, and offer you some relief.
  • #48,664
  • Oct 1, 2014 2:55pm Oct 1, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} In my humble opinion, I don't think this stampede down will endure in the Asian session. I don't know where it's target is, but this excitement should subside, and offer you some relief.

I'm not worried about the bearish trend dying by the asian session (this pair has continuously tried to establish a solid bearish momentum and failed)

What I'm concerned is the slight (but nonetheless possible) event of a shakeout that reaches juuuuust past 108.8 and crushes my remaining margin.


....seriously, no. Just, no.

Edit: Have any of you seen the RSI? It's practically hugging the 30 zone (oversold) for hours before moving slightly up and going back to hugging. And it's not just the 5min chart; it's also on the 15min, 30min, and hourly charts as well.

This cannot be natural.
  • #48,665
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:03pm Oct 1, 2014 3:03pm
And now we take a dip below 109. Now's a great time to buy in right now, but I'd be risking my main trade......

Choices, choices.
  • #48,666
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:04pm Oct 1, 2014 3:04pm
getting murdered right now .. contemplating my pull out if it continues to freefall, how low can this correction go? sheesh
  • #48,667
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:06pm Oct 1, 2014 3:06pm
I don't think this move (to this extreme), has the support of larger traders IMO. You still breathing? (both of you)
  • #48,668
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:11pm Oct 1, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
I don't think this move (to this extreme), has the support of larger traders IMO. You still breathing? (both of you)
i dont like my positioning, 2 lots came in basically on top of this at 109.85, biggest sell off ive seen since august 5th. And this freefall is after hitting the 110 price level, regardless of ok nfp data, raises eyebrows if not 1 eyebrow dont you think?

EDIT:

it also just touched the 108.85-90 price level which should be a nice support area (former resistance) of the 12 year trendline back from 2002 on the monthly
  • #48,669
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:15pm Oct 1, 2014 3:15pm
hold your longs guys we will visit 110.xx again i am holding mine
  • #48,670
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:17pm Oct 1, 2014 3:17pm
I was expecting this. I had a setup to sell EUR/JPY on a pullback to 139 (but, chickened out). Abe has changed his rhetoric. And U.S, are talking about an overvalued currency. But...these dont mean instant reversal. PS I think we just reached saturation point, in terms of this descent. I think it will retrace back up quite strongly.
  • #48,671
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:18pm Oct 1, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting cobracoder
hold your longs guys we will visit 110.xx again i am holding mine
yeaah im holding lol
  • #48,672
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:18pm Oct 1, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} i dont like my positioning, 2 lots came in basically on top of this at 109.85, biggest sell off ive seen since august 5th. And this freefall is after hitting the 110 price level, regardless of ok nfp data, raises eyebrows if not 1 eyebrow dont you think?
Really, depressing. I would say wait for the asian before pulling the plug. I am still long and strong but without a smile .
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #48,673
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:20pm Oct 1, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} Really, depressing. I would say wait for the asian before pulling the plug. I am still long and strong but without a smile .
*sips coffee* .. im holding sir :nerd:

maybe nice doji forms here too
  • #48,674
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:21pm Oct 1, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
I was expecting this. I had a setup to sell EUR/JPY on a pullback to 139 (but, chickened out). Abe has changed his rhetoric. And U.S, are talking about an overvalued currency. But...these dont mean instant reversal. PS I think we just reached saturation point, in terms of this descent. I think it will retrace back up quite strongly.
I hope you're right, but if it pushes beneath 108.84, there may be a further plunge as Bulls (me included) close their longs and stops are smashed...
  • #48,675
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:21pm Oct 1, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
I don't think this move (to this extreme), has the support of larger traders IMO. You still breathing? (both of you)
Still live and kicking.....unless it hits around 108.7. Considering to withdraw some more funds to keep it afloat, but below 108.85.......that might mean another bearish drop.
  • #48,676
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:22pm Oct 1, 2014 3:22pm
From what I can see in PA, this downward move has now been compromised.
  • #48,677
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:27pm Oct 1, 2014 3:27pm
hi guys, may i know why you guys think it is still bullish? i longed at 109.91 due to the news, but i got burned badly... OBVIOUSLY... but i am still holding as i still think the overall sentiment is up... please advice as i am getting a little shaky..
  • #48,678
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:43pm Oct 1, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting davidkok
hi guys, may i know why you guys think it is still bullish? i longed at 109.91 due to the news, but i got burned badly... OBVIOUSLY... but i am still holding as i still think the overall sentiment is up... please advice as i am getting a little shaky..

You...longed at 109.9? How much did you buy, and how much leverage do you have remaining? No offense, but buying near 110 was suicidal, even under bullish assumptions.

At any rate, I recommend you check unemployment data, consumer index, and other statistics for both the U.S. and Japan respectively. I also suggest identify the key points of support/resistance in the past 7 years. Also, I STRONGLY recommend you read up about Abenomics (the ruling economic system in Japan right now, under the ministration of prime minister Abe Shinzo). That's how other people get their data.

Also, use some indicators like the ADX (average directional index) and the RSI (relative strength index). If you see those figures right now, you'd understand why we're still bullish, albeit growing more nervous bit by bit.

Honestly, if it keeps going down, I'm out.
  • #48,679
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:45pm Oct 1, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting davidkok
hi guys, may i know why you guys think it is still bullish? i longed at 109.91 due to the news, but i got burned badly... OBVIOUSLY... but i am still holding as i still think the overall sentiment is up... please advice as i am getting a little shaky..
There are various fundamental reasons behind this. First and foremost, nothing has really changed. IMO, it's not necesarily bullish - however, nor is it immediately bearish. I think it will AT LEAST consolidate back up.
  • #48,680
  • Oct 1, 2014 3:49pm Oct 1, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} There are various fundamental reasons behind this. First and foremost, nothing has really changed. IMO, it's not necesarily bullish - however, nor is it immediately bearish. I think it will AT LEAST consolidate back up.
The price will go where it has to go.
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