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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #401,141
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:12am Oct 1, 2014 8:12am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Thats me inspector here ,,then wife home from Jersey later , so in the morning now will be next on,, gl its been fun guys thanks,,did i tell you we were currency brokers ..
I think you did , way early in the year ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #401,142
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:15am Oct 1, 2014 8:15am
Quoting cspip
{quote} Cuz sometimes you don't explain things proper...............you do alot of talking in riddles..or post a chart and not explain what you are meaning to say about it.........if someone asks to clarify........don't take it personally.......... ....my reason is that its mostly like how this forex behaves, but some reason we'd never know......impossible to guess..........if it something had happened, which makes it look fake, then that is just an interpretation........forex was going to do it and it did....... ......and all i said there is no...
Understood and I don't take anything personal. You asked, I explained.

So if I understand you correctly, you maintain that the big guns (the ones who can actually affect price behavior) do nothing to move price at their discretion to lure in (fake) other traders (us) to provide the liquidity needed to fill their positions? It all just ... happens? Is that right?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #401,143
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:17am Oct 1, 2014 8:17am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Understood and I don't take anything personal. You asked, I explained. So if I understand you correctly, you maintain that the big guns (the ones who can actually affect price behavior) do nothing to move price at their discretion to lure in (fake) other traders (us) to provide the liquidity needed to fill their positions? It all just ... happens? Is that right?
he clearly hasnt heard of something that banks do all the time (market making)....
i see it in action on a daily basis....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #401,144
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:17am Oct 1, 2014 8:17am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Good, now let me explain what are fakeouts.... when you have a candle that moves one way where there are literally no reason behind it.... usually when candle starts to move, backed by news you get something called followthrough... meaning next candle continues the direction... right now i dont see it on GBPUSD.... that spike up and no follow through is telling me this maybe a fakeout move up to wash out the heavy orders of shorts up at 1.6220.... now we dont know which direction its gona go, but it does seem like theres no follow through...
And I'll start by saying don't take it personally...........

.........no, i don't believe it is so that way..........more of a myth like 'stop hunting'.......

......yes, there is sometimes no reason, but there doesn't need to be, trades are always being put on taken off moving the markets........if you or me or anyone can't think of a reason for something, it doesn't make it fake......
  • #401,145
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:18am Oct 1, 2014 8:18am
1.6160 proved to be a good support for the cable. However, upside seems limited with 1.6240 being the level of descending trend line resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #401,146
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:21am Oct 1, 2014 8:21am
Quoting cspip
{quote} And I'll start by saying don't take it personally........... .........no, i don't believe it is so that way..........more of a myth like 'stop hunting'....... ......yes, there is sometimes no reason, but there doesn't need to be, trades are always being put on taken off moving the markets........if you or me or anyone can't think of a reason for something, it doesn't make it fake......
gosh work for a bank, in a treasury department and tell me Stop Hunting (ie the market making stuff that we do in bank's treasury that moves market to trigger orders) tell me that isnt called stop hunting....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #401,147
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:23am Oct 1, 2014 8:23am
Quoting cspip
no, i don't believe it is so that way..........more of a myth like 'stop hunting'....... ......
If a bank wants retail money, they have 2 options, margin call the trader on the other side or hit his SL, so how is it a myth? Its banks vs. us, only one side can win at a time. And banks know exactly where SLs are placed, they can see them, we can't(other than ours).
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #401,148
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:26am Oct 1, 2014 8:26am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} If a bank wants retail money, they have 2 options, margin call the trader on the other side or hit his SL, so how is it a myth? Its banks vs. us, only one side can win at a time. And banks know exactly where SLs are placed, they can see them, we can't(other than ours).
Lol easy... what we do in bank's treasury is simply fill a 50 million USD order at the price of 1.6220 and in ways of minimizing the bank's exposure, we place forward options the other way with a countering party bank.
and just like that GBPUSD can fly up ot 1.6220 without the bank to take any position....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #401,149
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:26am Oct 1, 2014 8:26am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} he clearly hasnt heard of something that banks do all the time (market making).... i see it in action on a daily basis....
Exactly. I always thought Market "Makers" were called that for a reason. But alas, I'm but a humble carpenter. What do I know?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #401,150
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:27am Oct 1, 2014 8:27am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} S/O @ 1.6210 for -20 pips. & buying @ 1.6210 , sl: 1.6179 , tp: 1.6230
Out @ 1.6210 for +/- 0 pips.
Position flat now.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #401,151
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:28am Oct 1, 2014 8:28am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Exactly. I always thought Markers "Makers" were called that for a reason. But alas, I'm but a humble carpenter. What do I know?
i have to say Bank's market making activity is dwindling with all the ruels and regulation and anti-manipulation rules going on with interbank rates and stuff happening... but its still happening....
we need to flood the market one direction in order to lure the retailers to follow us
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #401,152
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:31am Oct 1, 2014 8:31am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @The King of Comedy Beak even means just that plus the commission Warm regards, HDA
It's funny, I've always set BE+ a few just so if it came back, I'd still get something rather than nothing for the effort. So it comes natural to do so.

Only now the commission gets it. Odd .... no? .. lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #401,153
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:32am Oct 1, 2014 8:32am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i have to say Bank's market making activity is dwindling with all the ruels and regulation and anti-manipulation rules going on with interbank rates and stuff happening... but its still happening.... we need to flood the market one direction in order to lure the retailers to follow us
Are these anti-manipulation rules even followed by the banks? Or any rules at all? I can imagine why they were created, to show the public that something is being done. But in real, banks own every government in the world, they pretty much rule the world with OUR money, so I can't imagine any politician actually going against the hand that feeds him. Other than in public, for the show, of course.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #401,154
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:32am Oct 1, 2014 8:32am
be glad its a public holiday here in HK Today and Tomorrow....
i'd friggin be fired if i login to forexfactory using my office computer....
its constantly monitored....
i cant even login to my personal Gmail account at office.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #401,155
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:34am Oct 1, 2014 8:34am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Lol easy... what we do in bank's treasury is simply fill a 50 million USD order at the price of 1.6220 and in ways of minimizing the bank's exposure, we place forward options the other way with a countering party bank. and just like that GBPUSD can fly up ot 1.6220 without the bank to take any position....

thats crazy..u can use the bank, to give u more than a heads up of where the mofo is going..assuming that they have a clue
  • #401,156
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:34am Oct 1, 2014 8:34am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i have to say Bank's market making activity is dwindling with all the ruels and regulation and anti-manipulation rules going on with interbank rates and stuff happening... but its still happening.... we need to flood the market one direction in order to lure the retailers to follow us
Yeah but don't they make up for some it (hedge a bit) with some HFT activity as well? I honestly don't know. Just wondering.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #401,157
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:37am Oct 1, 2014 8:37am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Are these anti-manipulation rules even followed by the banks? Or any rules at all? I can imagine why they were created, to show the public that something is being done. But in real, banks own every government in the world, they pretty much rule the world with OUR money, so I can't imagine any politician actually going against the hand that feeds him. Other than in public, for the show, of course.
Well the anti-manipulation rules wont stop us from manipulating but yea it does have an effect....in a way we do much less than we used to....
all these rules and regulations is actually making us lower our exposure to manipulate the interbank rates....
thats why you hear bankers say volatility in the markets have been dwindling and dwindling.... volatility are so low because theres just not much action.... market are ignorant to war and political stuff happening around the world....

to a point low volatility is causing us bankers a bit of difficulty to straight on play with spot forex.... nowadays spot forex trading is decreasing because we are not getting correlations like we used to....

i remember the good old times when you could trade USDJPY on US10 Year Treasury Yield....
AUDUSD on Gold price...
USDCAD on Oil price...
AUDJPY, NZDJPY on swap carry flows....

now all those good old correlations dont even have 0.5..... its like each and every market has a mind of its own....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #401,158
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:38am Oct 1, 2014 8:38am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Are these anti-manipulation rules even followed by the banks? Or any rules at all? I can imagine why they were created, to show the public that something is being done. But in real, banks own every government in the world, they pretty much rule the world with OUR money, so I can't imagine any politician actually going against the hand that feeds him. Other than in public, for the show, of course.


LOL ... The rules are for us, not them. Just like in the states here with no hedging and the FIFO. Nooooo.... the banks could never do that stuff now either ... right?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #401,159
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:41am Oct 1, 2014 8:41am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Yeah but don't they make up for some it (hedge a bit) with some HFT activity as well? I honestly don't know. Just wondering.

when i first started trading. i had a problem with alpari and somehow i got through to the trading room..and i spoke to some guy he told me to sell cable it wont come back to 1.93 at that time cable was at 1.97..i thought he was smoking something

I got the impression they swing trade and have multiple positions..in excess of 100 in the diection of what they think is the trend..and this guys was just in alpari

I wish i listened to him
  • #401,160
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:41am Oct 1, 2014 8:41am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Yeah but don't they make up for some it (hedge a bit) with some HFT activity as well? I honestly don't know. Just wondering.
high frequency trading is actually done like this...
imagine 2 brokers....

FXXX 1.20001
and
AXXX 1.20000

removing bid-ask condition away....

what HFT does is buy AXXX for 1.2000, and sell the same security to FXXX for the price they quote which is infinitesimally higher than AXXX's quoted price.... then 1.20001
you gain that 0.00001 profit....

HFT is literally trading these small differences in price in different brokers... essentially Arbitrage trading...... but because of the size of the profit... more orders are placed....
sooo 10 orders of that you still only gain that 0.00010 profit....

sooo HFT isnt really what banks use to hedge their risk... banks usually hedge the risk when they move markets by executing orders on spot price, then "place" order on the forward price, in the form of options, or trade derivatives on interest rate spreads.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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