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EUR/CHF

  • #12,221
  • Sep 8, 2014 2:03pm Sep 8, 2014 2:03pm
I was pretty sure today we would see this pair try some higher level, which it did, and then fell back again.
If the price does not go up tomorrow I would say we will see some more downmove. I think it is excellent to buy now if you want to keep the trade for several months.
  • #12,222
  • Sep 9, 2014 2:44am Sep 9, 2014 2:44am
I don't think we will go significant below 1.2050. The ECB lower interest rate + heavy ukraine crisis could not really push EC below this level. So it needs more to do so. Anyway I don't think SNB will let the price fall close to 1.2000 because it's more difficult to defend it there, in my opinion they will already try to defend at 1,2050 and below because its probably more effective and cheaper.
  • #12,223
  • Sep 9, 2014 3:42am Sep 9, 2014 3:42am
Quoting Napoleon180
I don't think we will go significant below 1.2050. The ECB lower interest rate + heavy ukraine crisis could not really push EC below this level. So it needs more to do so. Anyway I don't think SNB will let the price fall close to 1.2000 because it's more difficult to defend it there, in my opinion they will already try to defend at 1,2050 and below because its probably more effective and cheaper.
You are wrong. It is the ukraine crises that pushes this pair down because people tend to see the chf as safe haven. We need positive news from ukraine-russia or we might go lower. We only get negative news all the time now.
  • #12,224
  • Sep 9, 2014 3:54am Sep 9, 2014 3:54am
Quoting KarlHakan
{quote} You are wrong. It is the ukraine crises that pushes this pair down because people tend to see the chf as safe haven. We need positive news from ukraine-russia or we might go lower. We only get negative news all the time now.

guys,

just watch EURRUB chart, better and quicker then any news from ukraine, if it goes down is better for peace
  • #12,225
  • Sep 9, 2014 6:23am Sep 9, 2014 6:23am
Quoting zoran22
{quote} guys, just watch EURRUB chart, better and quicker then any news from ukraine, if it goes down is better for peace
yepp its good to keep an eye on that pair.

I have scalped EURCHF a lot lately. I buy at around 1.2055, seems to be a huge support. If that support gets broken then we can head extremely close o 1.2000 again.
  • #12,226
  • Sep 9, 2014 10:40am Sep 9, 2014 10:40am
Quoting KarlHakan
{quote} You are wrong. It is the ukraine crises that pushes this pair down because people tend to see the chf as safe haven. We need positive news from ukraine-russia or we might go lower. We only get negative news all the time now.
i have never heard a single good news from the EU since 2008, except this mistake in assessing the economy in Jan 2013 in that famous press conference which led the EC to go to 1.25, but other than that we got nothing except bankruptcies, wars, unemployment, deflation, etc..
  • #12,227
  • Sep 9, 2014 11:05am Sep 9, 2014 11:05am
Quoting insider-
{quote} i have never heard a single good news from the EU since 2008, except this mistake in assessing the economy in Jan 2013 in that famous press conference which led the EC to go to 1.25, but other than that we got nothing except bankruptcies, wars, unemployment, deflation, etc..
When USDRUB was at its top today EURCHF was at its lowest for the day. We have seen EURCHF open up with huge gap after Crimea crises. And no other pair had a gap like that. I belive it is big correlation but its just me.

When we had news about "ceasefire" in Ukraine USDRUB went down and EURCHF up.

Its not only famous press conferences that affects this pair. But lets see
  • #12,228
  • Sep 9, 2014 6:05pm Sep 9, 2014 6:05pm
There are 2 options before less than 10 days to SNB Meeting:

First: It will stay playing short range on current level to spike up up up during and after SNB.

Second: It may go up to 1.2090 1.2115 or 1.2130 from now till then to turn back down if we get same boring SNB Statement about defending the peg with utmost determination
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #12,229
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:01am Sep 10, 2014 2:01am
http://www.efxnews.com/story/26002/4...-deutsche-bank

4 Reasons Why The Case For SNB Actions Is Compelling - Deutsche Bank

With the ECB's surprise rate cuts last week, the case for the SNB to act is becoming more compelling, argues Deutsche Bank.
DB outlines 4 reasons behind this view:
First, the move lower in EUR/CHF has been more than twice as large as after the ECB initially cut rates to negative. The cross is also trading where the SNB have sought to hurt speculative positioning in the past.
Second, the move lower in European yields has seen short-end euro rates fall below those of Swiss ones, raising the risks that investors swap franc for euro funding.
Third, other central banks with euro currency pegs have responded to the ECB. The Danish Nationalbank cut rates back to negative last week after resisting the temptation in June.
Finally, the up-to CHF 4bn worth of open market purchases by Hungarian authorities to wipe out foreign FX liabilities could put short term appreciation pressures on CHF before year-end.
"One option for the SNB would be to raise the 1.20 floor. However, this would only serve to replace a durable arrangement with an untested one and also involve large FX intervention," DB argues.
"Another approach would be to mirror the ECB and cut rates to negative. By imposing a tax on foreign holdings of Swiss cash, the SNB could generate a strong FX impact without having to pump further liquidity into a financial system suffering from highly overvalued financial and residential assets, as well as increasing risks to their balance sheet," DB adds.
  • #12,230
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:34am Sep 10, 2014 7:34am
from 1.2070 to 1.21 in few seconds
  • #12,231
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:35am Sep 10, 2014 7:35am
what happened???!!! no news seems

Quoting Caa
from 1.2070 to 1.21 in few seconds
  • #12,232
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:40am Sep 10, 2014 7:40am
moments ago | September 10th, 2014 12:37:44 GMT
Swissy sold on talks that SNB is open to using negative rates
  • #12,233
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:40am Sep 10, 2014 7:40am
SNB open to negative rates???
  • #12,234
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:45am Sep 10, 2014 7:45am
Quoting rootkit
what happened???!!! no news seems {quote}
snb ready for negative rates
  • #12,235
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:48am Sep 10, 2014 7:48am
Quoting Caa
{quote} snb ready for negative rates
source ?
  • #12,236
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:48am Sep 10, 2014 7:48am
WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/articles/negat...j_nview_latest
  • #12,237
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:50am Sep 10, 2014 7:50am
Alternate SNB Governing Board member Thomas Moser mentioned it to WSJ. "We are not shy about it...we always said we would use it if needed"."
  • #12,238
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:53am Sep 10, 2014 7:53am
buy the rumour sell the fact?
  • #12,239
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:06am Sep 10, 2014 8:06am
Well, was just a matter of time till that happens.
I think 1.22 or 1.23 will be reached within the next days or weeks.
  • #12,240
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:10am Sep 10, 2014 8:10am
Another comment from SNB:

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/0...ed-says-meier/
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