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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #396,861
  • Sep 6, 2014 12:48pm Sep 6, 2014 12:48pm
Move on life is good.
Attached Image
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #396,862
  • Sep 6, 2014 12:49pm Sep 6, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting HDA
Good Afternoon Forex Factory Members and Guests As the HDA discussion continues, please don't forget to quote my trading plan. I can't stress it enough. It is very very very very important that you continue to quote my plan. HDA has not gone anywhere and I will be right here continuing to post as I always do just the same. Please continue to openly share your views, it's important that you all get everything off your chest. As you continue to explain your case, try not to take any of the discussion between yourselves personally. Forex Factory is...
Hi HDA
I think for clarity for lot of traders criticizing you and may have valid point that you have not disclosed your positions and have not disclosed if you have closed red trades that were entered earlier.
I understand that this could be private matter but also understand that by not coming "clean" you open the door for "discussions" about you.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #396,863
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:01pm Sep 6, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi HDA I think for clarity for lot of traders criticizing you and may have valid point that you have not disclosed your positions and have not disclosed if you have closed red trades that were entered earlier. I understand that this could be private matter but also understand that by not coming "clean" you open the door for "discussions" about you. Regards
@Davit:

I want the discussion. It's important that this discussion be had. It's important that everyone who has an opinion share it. What is evolving is good for the forum. This discussion is healthy and so much can and will be learnt by many from these discussions and varying view points.

Thank you for sharing Davit

There are many ways to teach a lesson, sometimes you have to let the most verbose, do the teaching for you.

Warmest regards,

HDA
  • #396,864
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:01pm Sep 6, 2014 1:01pm
If people understood fundamentals they wouldn't have been long Sterling after July 2014.

In July 2012 Draghi announced, "Whatever it takes". This was perhaps the best bluff in market history. He held the bond rate down for nearly 2 years without needing to capitalize it. Italy falling back into recession changed that, so he needed to play his last card this week. The ECB has no other tools it can use without major concessions from Germany.

The UK on the other hand spent over 300B in the same time to keep their rates down. Carney's verbal intervention started in July 2013 with the interest rate bluff and it ended exactly in July 2014 when he didn't fulfill his promise. The market unequivocally lost faith. The down move started on that day and hasn't subsided since. A rate hike isn't feasible without a major reduction in their currency valuation to maintain debt because public sector spending would need to have major cuts if interest rates went up.

This is why they're selling off.

On top of this we're about to see a large shake out as the Russian sanctions work their way through the system. Milk glut is just the tip of the iceberg because it's the fastest perishable. Producers are starting to have price wars in the local markets with supply outstripping demand, and it's going to impact GDP. (watch supermarket shares)

When a country like NZ which is a single pillar export economy takes a hit, that's just the canary in the coal mine. When it starts to impact the larger Eurozone economies, things are going to get a lot more volatile.
  • #396,865
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:02pm Sep 6, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I'm not sure I quite agree with that statement. It might help to know why a market is going up/down but a "position trader" to me is just someone that trades the larger timeframes. If I looked @ the 2 charts below & I had a simple system (2 MAs), would it matter if I knew absolutely nothing about the fundamentals & just traded based upon what is happening in the market? If someone is good at reading PA then they're just letting the market tell them when the momentum is shifting. Some traders are purely fundamental traders & don't care what...
HI Srt
Your both charts PA is under MA's and based on these you should of shorted.Weekly candle could be 100-200pips.That's significant space to be wrong.
My view is same as how Banks trade.These guys go in in millions.When you trade in millions you better know what you are trading about and that includes economics as well.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #396,866
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:04pm Sep 6, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting Bones
I have no skype but im sure we would get on better , {quote}
Really brother, I have no doubt about it. Have a great weekend Tony.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #396,867
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:05pm Sep 6, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting Markj
{quote} I think it's wiser that you both just ignore the others comments and move on.
Quite right Mark.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #396,868
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:09pm Sep 6, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Next week GU H1 {image}
EU H1
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #396,869
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:13pm Sep 6, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting Zircon
Move on life is good. {image}
post recommended
  • #396,870
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:13pm Sep 6, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Yes, I agree the large banks better know why they're long/short but your comment was about any position trader so the way I read it you were saying I couldn't be a position trader (long-term trader) if I didn't know something about the fundamentals. That's the part I disagree with because you'd be saying I can't be profitable just trading based upon what I see on the chart. Not going to get into an argument, just different opinions is all. Peace
That's fine provided you trade according to the chart.In case of GU it has been total Bear since 1.70 and I don't see any reason to say "I build longs to 1.70 now"
If I am going to "invest" months in currency then underlying fundamentals do matter.
That's all.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #396,871
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:14pm Sep 6, 2014 1:14pm
Quoting Luther
If people understood fundamentals they wouldn't have been long Sterling after July 2014. In July 2012 Draghi announced, "Whatever it takes". This was perhaps the best bluff in market history. He held the bond rate down for nearly 2 years without needing to capitalize it. Italy falling back into recession changed that, so he needed to play his last card this week. The ECB has no other tools it can use without major concessions from Germany. The UK on the other hand spent over 300B in the same time to keep their rates down. Carney's verbal intervention...
That is hands down one of the best explanations of fundamentals I've seen Luther. I want to, but I don't understand one bit of it. But it's nice to see it explained. We have another member here that I really wish would post more often on fundamentals. I think it would really help tie things together for those of us who wish to learn more about them.

Thanks for the post.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #396,872
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:19pm Sep 6, 2014 1:19pm
Man I wish I could hang around for more of this. But duty calls.

Have a great weekend everyone.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #396,873
  • Edited 1:57pm Sep 6, 2014 1:19pm | Edited 1:57pm
you working weekends ?
as likable as you are ,even if price went a 1000 pips north from here ,it would not be credible
the aloof nature of your posts ,and enteries out by 100s of pips
leaves un traderable /quantifiable
plans for the majority ,
please advise on questions asked of you last week when you have a moment

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post7694806



Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: I want the discussion. It's important that this discussion be had. It's important that everyone who has an opinion share it. What is evolving is good for the forum. This discussion is healthy and so much can and will be learnt by many from these discussions and varying view points. Thank you for sharing Davit There are many ways to teach a lesson, sometimes you have to let the most verbose, do the teaching for you. Warmest regards, HDA
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #396,874
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:25pm Sep 6, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I know for a fact you do your own analyses and trades.Lot of folks went long at GU decent and were wrong.That's trading you take a shot at moving object and sometimes miss.Its a everyday reality in trading. regards
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #396,875
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:33pm Sep 6, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} post recommended
the size is so beautiful and natural.
I wonder by the look if she is a day trader or position trader?? what do you think
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #396,876
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:38pm Sep 6, 2014 1:38pm
I may go long here for charity donation. i will be good till 157xxx?? maybe.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #396,877
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:48pm Sep 6, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting Zircon
{quote} the size is so beautiful and natural. I wonder by the look if she is a day trader or position trader?? what do you think
I have no doubt that she is a position trader ^^
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #396,878
  • Edited 2:02pm Sep 6, 2014 1:49pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I agree fundamentals matter but the question is "Do I need to know that information to trade long-term?" Looking at the charts I posted, I wouldn't start to "build longs to 1.70 now" either. HDA says he's a position trader but not sure he always holds on for months & I've never read where he said he was buying/selling because of any fundamental reason. His trading seems to be completely technical the way I see it & he apparently is making a profit. Chris openly admits he doesn't know much about fundamentals & he just tried a "position" trade...
Srt
If what works for you by just looking at charts is fine however if Unemployment numbers are coming up negative week after week months after months.low inflation talk of interest rate cut and you are long based on charts and that's questionable how you interpret charts then sum total of factors will be against going long.We have red news every week and I don't particularly agree being ignorant of high impact news events is conducive to profitable trading if you just say "everything is in the chart". No not everything is in the chart...In my opinion good trading is having knowledge of charts and fundamentals which include red news alerts is a must.Weakness on either is deficiency as a trader.There is a point when trader becomes a gambler and that point is when one says despite of all negative data example Euro I am going to build longs to 1.40.That's terrible trading.Euro could very well reach 1.25 by January.Still building longs? Could get 1.20 by 2015 Spring when Feds raise interest rate.These are just examples that price is not independent of factors influencing it.
Taking this further Euro at 1.25 by correlation will bring down GU to 1.55-58 and further decline of Euro will push down GU even further.
1.20Euro roughly is 1.46 GU.At which point does one admit "I was wrong"....as a position trader on wrong side....
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #396,879
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:54pm Sep 6, 2014 1:54pm
no point trying to catch a falling knife
why do people always try to do this when there is no need
the next uptrend will be evident soon enough

Go long beer
  • #396,880
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:54pm Sep 6, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Srt If what works for you by just looking at charts is fine however if Unemployment numbers are coming up negative week after week months after months.low inflation talk of interest rate cut and you are long based on charts and that's questionable how you interpret charts then sum total of factors will be against going long.We have red news every week and I don't particularly agree being ignorant of high impact news events is conducive to profitable trading if you just say "everything is in the chart". No not everything is in the chart......
Deleted all my posts. Just agree to disagree. (Fundamental traders didn't get the ECB cut either)
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