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EUR/CHF

  • #12,141
  • Aug 31, 2014 10:00am Aug 31, 2014 10:00am
the possibility of negative rates is real, especially if Draghi announces QE on thursday, which he will probably do
  • #12,142
  • Aug 31, 2014 2:11pm Aug 31, 2014 2:11pm
Just hold longs and wait........

Anyone checked Reuters EC price:

Bid 1.2101
Offer 1.2109

Other pairs prices are similar to Friday close, except EC. Are they starting to intercept some move?!!!
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #12,143
  • Aug 31, 2014 2:21pm Aug 31, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting J.Clinton
Just hold longs and wait........ Anyone checked Reuters EC price: Bid 1.2101 Offer 1.2109 Other pairs prices are similar to Friday close, except EC. Are they starting to intercept some move?!!!
Checked again, there's difference for some pairs than Friday close like GU 1.6568, GOLD 1279 and UCAD 1.0944

Gonna wait for market actual open prices!
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #12,144
  • Aug 31, 2014 3:18pm Aug 31, 2014 3:18pm
From SNB leader Thomas Jordan's interview today. Makes me feel much more comfortable with my super huge long at 1.2060:

On the weekend he spoke with NZZ am Sonntag and nothing in his comments suggested a change in the floor but other measures could be possible.
“The franc is still highly valued,” he said. “Enforcing the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 per euro is absolutely central to ensure adequate monetary conditions in Switzerland.”

“The environment has deteriorated for Switzerland,” he said. “New geopolitical risks have arisen and the international economic data — particularly in Europe and South America — was worse than we expected.”

Asked about raising the floor to 1.25, he repeated that the bank wasn’t in the business of fine tuning. He also said the SNB hasn’t intervened since 2012. But he did talk about negative rates and said they were “a possible option”.

“We exclude no measure that could be necessary to guarantee adequate monetary conditions,” Jordan said. “Should monetary policy prove to be too restrictive, one would have to think about about what measures would be sensible to fulfill the mandate.”
  • #12,145
  • Aug 31, 2014 3:36pm Aug 31, 2014 3:36pm
It's 1.2064 - 1.2069 atm.
Reuters quote not updating／moving yet.
  • #12,146
  • Sep 1, 2014 8:29am Sep 1, 2014 8:29am
USD Bank Holiday and Eur/Chf is significantly moving up without selling pressure, probably getting a nice green candle. First time for 2 weeks actually. Also says us something...
  • #12,147
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:09am Sep 1, 2014 11:09am
I was hoping it would get closer to the peg, I have 3 pending longs at 2040, 2030 and 2020. I went long on 2056 anyway, but 13 pips seems like a waste of time. Anyone thinks this has a chance of moving closer to the peg?
  • #12,148
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:39am Sep 1, 2014 11:39am
Quoting xivh
I was hoping it would get closer to the peg, I have 3 pending longs at 2040, 2030 and 2020. I went long on 2056 anyway, but 13 pips seems like a waste of time. Anyone thinks this has a chance of moving closer to the peg?
No. I think it will be around this level or higher.
  • #12,149
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:43am Sep 1, 2014 11:43am
Quoting KarlHakan
{quote} No. I think it will be around this level or higher.
EC hit R3 today. That's Bullish. It's still 100 points away from the previous High.
  • #12,150
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:35pm Sep 1, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting xivh
I was hoping it would get closer to the peg, I have 3 pending longs at 2040, 2030 and 2020. I went long on 2056 anyway, but 13 pips seems like a waste of time. Anyone thinks this has a chance of moving closer to the peg?
i do think so, keep a close eye on the ECB on thursday, it is a bit tricky, if the euro is going to be debased and fall further to much lower levels, the franc will also start depreciating, so what will happen to the swiss franc longs and safe haven? they might start liquidating but i don't think they are going to give up without a fight. that's why they might take it lower and then get out saying "QE will be beneficial to the EU economy, blah blah blah..."
  • #12,151
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:31pm Sep 1, 2014 2:31pm
saxobank will increase EC margin rate to 8%, now is 2%

really honest people, lot of fun for all positions
  • #12,152
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:27pm Sep 1, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting zoran22
saxobank will increase EC margin rate to 8%, now is 2% really honest people, lot of fun for all positions
That's scary ! It means they consider the PEG could break.
  • #12,153
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:22pm Sep 1, 2014 11:22pm
Quoting Mevo
{quote} That's scary ! It means they consider the PEG could break.
"
On the back of this move, there has been a build-up of short CHF positions in the broader market, which could represent a large risk should the 1.2000 peg give way. As such, any breach of the 1.2000 peg could see a significant appreciation of CHF."

some retail are all in, so it is legitimate that they higher margin if they don t trust SNB jordan
  • #12,154
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:05am Sep 2, 2014 2:05am
Quoting Caa
{quote} " On the back of this move, there has been a build-up of short CHF positions in the broader market, which could represent a large risk should the 1.2000 peg give way. As such, any breach of the 1.2000 peg could see a significant appreciation of CHF." some retail are all in, so it is legitimate that they higher margin if they don t trust SNB jordan

it is bullshit, they are not scared, just want to close positions of traders by force, this is not the way to deal, the pair is around cca 1.2080 almost 100 pips above peg, it moved 50 pips form range not even touched 1.2,

SNB can not be broken if anyone understands basics of monetary policy, the can remove peg if they want, but it can not be broken by any means or big players or even by another CB

this is all bunch of crap from brokers, they also charge negative swap on this pair and futures on CMEclearly show it should be positive on long EC

this is for what is used that contract we have to sign with brokers on 20 pages with all rights that broker have so he can close your positions by force
  • #12,155
  • Sep 2, 2014 3:16am Sep 2, 2014 3:16am
Quoting zoran22
saxobank will increase EC margin rate to 8%, now is 2% really honest people, lot of fun for all positions
That says alot about Saxobank. If I would have an account there...goobye Saxobank.

At my broker, even as it was very close for months on the 1.20 peg, the margin was the same as before and now.
  • #12,156
  • Edited 3:41am Sep 2, 2014 3:22am | Edited 3:41am
@Zoran: You are right, the SNB wants to prevent the CHF from apreciating and they can do this without problem as they will create more CHF and sell them. It's not as when a central bank wants to prevent its currency from going down: They use their reserves, and when they don't have any anymore, it's done.

So it all comes to the confidence you have in the SNB, the confidence you have they will do what they told, and the confidence you have they will continue to do it should they need to buy massive amounts of Euros if something happens (like QE by the ECB ?).

Maybe... Probably.
And maybe at one point they will realize they don't want to sink with the Euro, and they will stop it.
(Like you, as a trader when you enter a position and you are decided to keep it and to add to it if it goes against you... until one point when you throw in the towel, despite what you decided, despite your losses)

EDIT: So the risk exists, not technically that's true, but the SNB decisions are the risk, and what happens to the EURO is very related to it.
  • #12,157
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:21am Sep 2, 2014 7:21am
@Mevo

i agree it depends on SNB and their policy which, i bet, will stay the same until this ukraine, middle east crisis is finished, they pointed at least hunderd times deflation is not option peg is way to deal it, QE of ECB will force inflation in eurozone, euro will go up and so on...
SNB will anounce determination to defend peg this month on policy announcement for sure, maybe saying in december consideration of peg, but i doubt

the point here is margin reqirements on major fx pair EURCHF from 2% to 8% in one week, what do brokers think it will move 8% down without any buy after SNB peg is broken or what, this has no sense, just forcing traders to close positions

souch disruption of trading rules and conditions in my country we call 'gipsy business'
  • #12,158
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:39am Sep 2, 2014 7:39am
@Zoran, I agree with you.

For saxobank, should the PEG be removed (let's say this instead of "break"), their thinking isn't wrong: just under 1.20, there are a HUGE number of stop orders that should make CHF skyrocket and this stop orders very hard to fill (big, big slippage)

Are they honest and fear for the loss they may take because the margin of their customers won't cover the slippage, or are they dishonest and want to "encourage" their customers to close this positions, I don't know. I'm not sure it's more the one or the another, or both...
  • #12,159
  • Sep 2, 2014 3:22pm Sep 2, 2014 3:22pm
Swiss GDP 0% vs 0.5% expected, i think it is enough reason to make you stop panicking, the floor won't be lowered and won't be broken, relax damn it.
  • #12,160
  • Sep 3, 2014 4:49am Sep 3, 2014 4:49am
15 pips on a cease fire agreement and now back to where we were? are you kidding me?
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