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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #396,021
  • Sep 2, 2014 5:39pm Sep 2, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Nice post ,and your right i started 6 years ago just to dabble opened a large acc after 3 months of reading learning youtube ,anything went live 2 weeks lost 6k,and one other thing,you open a demo acc you then get the phone calls promising support ,how much support did i get zero,so i took the rest of the money out and stopped trading ,i knew i was out off my depth. last August i stood down from by business and just became the chair,,so nothing to do back to learning fx,Nov 2013 opened a £ 20k acc with capital,,shit myself as the reality...
Really good post! Its amazing but people don't realize HOW insane really it is the difference trading a couple thousand or even 10, then once you pass the 50k mark. Or if you jump in the 50+k to trade. WHOLE nother ball game and beyond just gets more so!

Having a proper head is the most important thing of all. I use software for brain entrainment to put me in the zone and to keep my head in the right place when trading, really helps. Some people just use drugs which is fine too but it can become really bad quite quickly.


Now looking at the actual GBPUSD. This looks like a great opportunity to get long for possible run back to 1.7

Yes we have a bullish patern with confirmed supertrend but also the monetary policy has been slightly falling towards more dovish side but this largely hawkish stance overall which supports a bullish move to the upside. Good numbers this week so far from UK Will watch services PMI tomorrow then thursday will be signifcant day for GBPUSD as we have GBP asset purchases, bank rate(unlikely anything to come out from this), followed by US unemployment, trade balance and ISM non manufacturing numbers from the US!
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #396,022
  • Sep 2, 2014 5:47pm Sep 2, 2014 5:47pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Really good post! Its amazing but people don't realize HOW insane really it is the difference trading a couple thousand or even 10, then once you pass the 50k mark. Or if you jump in the 50+k to trade. WHOLE nother ball game and beyond just gets more so! Having a proper head is the most important thing of all. I use software for brain entrainment to put me in the zone and to keep my head in the right place when trading, really helps. Some people just use drugs which is fine too but it can become really bad quite quickly. Now looking at the...
Thank you RT,lol about the drugs ,,red wine of a night time gets me,,its posts like this,is why i enjoy this thread ,,regards Billy
  • #396,023
  • Sep 2, 2014 5:55pm Sep 2, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting elbert3
{image} if you want to look at big tc,the monthly has to get past the 50 and the 200 is it a big ask,,,i think so,hoom said on his post 5460 was big support this is why ,,if this is wrong then this will be some of my last charts posted
Elbert you are far too harsh on yourself. I think your error is your differing lot seizes ..use one lot size no matter how confident you are about a trade... and continue to build from there.... dude I'm at present 300 pips in the red (multiple positions)
Peace & Pips
  • #396,024
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:04pm Sep 2, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Really good post! Its amazing but people don't realize HOW insane really it is the difference trading a couple thousand or even 10, then once you pass the 50k mark. Or if you jump in the 50+k to trade. WHOLE nother ball game and beyond just gets more so! Having a proper head is the most important thing of all. I use software for brain entrainment to put me in the zone and to keep my head in the right place when trading, really helps. Some people just use drugs which is fine too but it can become really bad quite quickly. Now looking at the...
yes but the thing about the whole trading plan it should not matter be it £1 or £100, as soon as you have given your thoughts and how and why you get into the trade ,the trade does not know how much one has placed,on it ,it is only our shear panic if we place the £100,but we will never place a trade unless one can over come even this, ie,today i have lost around 3k,,so i have to battle with my mind as to why did i get out,,1 i was not at the pc at the time i thought price would go up,,if i was i would of probably pulled it sooner ???? so now i have to look at where i think the next trade should be?? in ones mind will not want to go long as i have just pulled the trade going long although it was 30 pips ago, so one looks at the whole picture ,we look for s/r i take the trade on the strongest possibility i think could go long or short ,,my friend Bones likes the monthly chart and the weekly ,,i to look to them as they are the history ,,hence i take the trade long ,,just my insight ,,i could be wrong ,,,again,,lol
  • #396,025
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:06pm Sep 2, 2014 6:06pm
Quoting YardiFX
{quote} Elbert you are far too harsh on yourself. I think your error is your differing lot seizes ..use one lot size no matter how confident you are about a trade... and continue to build from there.... dude I'm at present 300 pips in the red (multiple positions)
strange you have by now just read my last post,,thanks your support means a lot best regardsE
  • #396,026
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:13pm Sep 2, 2014 6:13pm
midnight here so good night ,,E
  • #396,027
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:53pm Sep 2, 2014 6:53pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Nice post ,and your right i started 6 years ago just to dabble opened a large acc after 3 months of reading learning youtube ,anything went live 2 weeks lost 6k,and one other thing,you open a demo acc you then get the phone calls promising support ,how much support did i get zero,so i took the rest of the money out and stopped trading ,i knew i was out off my depth. last August i stood down from by business and just became the chair,,so nothing to do back to learning fx,Nov 2013 opened a £ 20k acc with capital,,shit myself as the reality...
Nice thoughts E,

Unfortunately too much of it relates to me also :-)
Started trading futures(oil, gold, YM, etc...) in cash as soon as I got my account open. Read a bit on the internet & knew how to trade. Lost a few thousand within 3 weeks trading by looking only at a 1 minute chart. Then when I realized I was loosing serious money, the emotions started kicking in. Well, that sure didn't help the performance :-(

Trading with a bias is an account killer. As much as I know this, I still struggle with this too often. I'm currently sitting on a $9K drawdown in corn because I only trade the grains long. Terrible bias there. I'm still battling that trade & will be for at least the next 6-12 months only because I was "certain" USDA was overestimating the crop potential & we wouldn't have perfect weather. WRONG!

As for account size, that to makes a difference. I'm much more careful/stressed when I trade futures/equities options than I am trading forex only because the amount I trade in forex is a fraction of the size I trade in options. Still learning/studying the forex game.
  • #396,028
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:55pm Sep 2, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting pipster1
{quote} Albchr If you have had to overcome personal issues, that could obviously develop a high level of resilience and a never quit attitude. And if you don't have the capital initially to open a larger account, then the smart play is micro trading. Money management? you could develop this with a small account size and any newbie should use a mini account when starting out, really the entire first year of trading. As you probably understand, inevitably for most people (not all) the one part of FX trading that tends to trip people up is controlling...
  • #396,029
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:25pm Sep 2, 2014 7:25pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Nice post ,and your right i started 6 years ago just to dabble opened a large acc after 3 months of reading learning youtube ,anything went live 2 weeks lost 6k,and one other thing,you open a demo acc you then get the phone calls promising support ,how much support did i get zero,so i took the rest of the money out and stopped trading ,i knew i was out off my depth. last August i stood down from by business and just became the chair,,so nothing to do back to learning fx,Nov 2013 opened a £ 20k acc with capital,,shit myself as the reality...
thanks for the reply and don't let the losses get you down!
  • #396,030
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:33pm Sep 2, 2014 7:33pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Nice post ,and your right i started 6 years ago just to dabble opened a large acc after 3 months of reading learning youtube ,anything went live 2 weeks lost 6k,and one other thing,you open a demo acc you then get the phone calls promising support ,how much support did i get zero,so i took the rest of the money out and stopped trading ,i knew i was out off my depth. last August i stood down from by business and just became the chair,,so nothing to do back to learning fx,Nov 2013 opened a £ 20k acc with capital,,shit myself as the reality...

Rarely ever have I followed anyones advice on a trade and it worked out. Almost always lose money like that. It's sort of why I want to stop going on FF. i don't want to let other traders thoughts into my head. Not that I ever really take anyone's advice on a trade here, but I want a clear mind. The other road of course is being immune to what everyone else is doing/saying and not letting it affect my decision making process.

Anyways I have lost 100s of k trading and it's all due to bad money management and being a greedy idiot. With good MM i almost certainly would have made a fortune by now, especially on longer term investments. Told myself I'd never give up but more recently started thinking I should quit the short term stuff and just stick to long term as it fits my personality better. Wish you well sir.
  • #396,031
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:45pm Sep 2, 2014 7:45pm
Quoting pipster1
{quote} Albchr If you have had to overcome personal issues, that could obviously develop a high level of resilience and a never quit attitude. And if you don't have the capital initially to open a larger account, then the smart play is micro trading. Money management? you could develop this with a small account size and any newbie should use a mini account when starting out, really the entire first year of trading. As you probably understand, inevitably for most people (not all) the one part of FX trading that tends to trip people up is controlling...
Excellent post Pipster1 and thank you for taking the time to answer.

I'll keep my reply as brief as possible. So the crux of your point here touches on a subject I tried to talk about with another member and that's the emotion or "fear" of large sums of money versus smaller amounts. This is certainly a huge point that needs to be mastered and in far more than just trading. For me, loosing the fear of loosing large sums came from a life's worth of experience long before I ever heard of FOREX or thought to trade any market. It came from business that was effected by so many outside variables not within my control, the profit margin could evaporate from any combination of factors quite quickly and in several cases did. Yet the bills and workers were paid and the family ate. Even when I did not. All through proper money management.

As far as the emotional pressure of the account or trade size making a difference, that's truly a relative thing. One who has a couple thousand disposable and knows it can be replaced if lost will look at things much differently than one who has a couple hundred and that's it. If lost, it's gone with no hope of replacement and thus, no hope of making it back up the ladder to a living again. There is nothing left and no other source to work with from that point forward.

So in this context, one can see that your breaking even and it costing you $75 is no different than me loosing a trade costing $7.50. The "importance" of loosing that sum remains identical. I am glad you found your personal comfort zone in the style of trading you do. That's such an important step in all this. I too have always been a day trader and I've become quite good at it. Hence the 95% gain since June. Once again life has forced a change on me that makes the idea of more position trades not just attractive, but quite necessary as well. I am in the middle of such change now. I'd rather not "have" to but the truth is, I can scalp, day trade, swing trade and now hopefully, position trade too. I have always thought one should be flexible and knowledgeable enough to do all of it. Funny how life is forcing me to learn the last part.

So you can see, my personal decision to buy at the 6550 area based on my personal TA, is every bit as important to me as any trade any other might take. In fact perhaps far more so because unlike many, loss of the account is not an option or temporary setback if I hope to continue in this business. My analysis might be wrong or it might not be. But I assure you it is my own. Just as my risk management is. just as everyone's should be.

I know many may think I'm simply "following" another here. Not so. It just so happens we share a similar, but not identical view point. There are several here who do. I have repeatedly told all others to NEVER blindly follow anyone. I will continue to do so. After all, I was exactly that newbie back in 2008 coming here to learn what's what. I know the confusion (and cost) of that intimately. It's a horrible place to be and if not for another member here who saw me and my potential and steered me in the right direction, this may have been over before it all began. I do the very same for many here on an almost daily basis. Point them in the right direction. That is not at me. I'm pretty good and I'll always share what I know but I feel I'm not good enough to teach others. At least not yet.

One last thing I'd like to say to all newcomers and perhaps even some more experienced folks. Money is important of course. It makes our world go round. But too strong an attachment to it will limit your ability to handle lager amounts regardless of what level X amount is to you. If you fear loosing 10% (just using round numbers here and not saying one should risk that much), you will fear it whether that 10% is $100 or $100,000. In that case you have some personal, emotional work to do.

Again thank you for the answer pipster1. It's really very nice to have an open, intelligent conversation without a personal bias involved.

Trade well everyone and best wishes to all.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #396,032
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:25pm Sep 2, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting adamsfun
I got short @65836 and I am still not so sure when I need to get out-110% is pretty good deal but I am sitting and thinking: "why not 200%" DARN-that`s brutal.....does anybody can suggest any exit strategy-tnx
Many have there TP targets based on their chart views, for me, its all in the raw price action of say a 4H chart.
If i'm in profit, and the PA/Candles start showing a reversal imminent, i'll TP. Sometimes it breaches these levels, and i may lose out on more pips gained, but may re-enter depending on PA. Every profit is good for the account. Its not a race, a marathon. slow and steady growth compounded IMO.
  • #396,033
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:33pm Sep 2, 2014 8:33pm
Quoting braintheboss
I have a question. When price touch 62500 can down more without a strong retrace? Or that is impossible?
..anything can happen. Likey retrace Yes, but no gaurantees.. nobody knows.. but 6250 is a hell of a level to be at..
  • #396,034
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:44pm Sep 2, 2014 8:44pm
Cable topped out...will 6460 hold it?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #396,035
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:46pm Sep 2, 2014 8:46pm
thank you 2012mysterio_I`ll stay a bit longer short with 4H chart then
  • #396,036
  • Sep 2, 2014 9:41pm Sep 2, 2014 9:41pm
MM still is the most important

Quoting YardiFX
{quote} Elbert you are far too harsh on yourself. I think your error is your differing lot seizes ..use one lot size no matter how confident you are about a trade... and continue to build from there.... dude I'm at present 300 pips in the red (multiple positions)
  • #396,037
  • Sep 2, 2014 10:28pm Sep 2, 2014 10:28pm
Long GU @ 16464 and limit 16450 SL 16425 TP @ 16495 -16530 area. Estimate Time less than 24 H.

before fall again.
While knowledge speak up, the wisdom listen down
  • #396,038
  • Sep 2, 2014 10:33pm Sep 2, 2014 10:33pm
Its tricky to stay in a trade even if your winning this is very true ,

the number 460 has been mentioned a lot personaly I can not see it as significant ,market is stretched to bear side ,by no means dose that really matter,
if it moves up id be comfortable to add on pa


Quoting adamsfun
thank you 2012mysterio_I`ll stay a bit longer short with 4H chart then
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #396,039
  • Sep 2, 2014 10:49pm Sep 2, 2014 10:49pm
gbp jpy we have 67 pip wick into sellers area ,imo
lower high at this time ,
single candle is low prob on its own but all things considered ,it could form a lower low
consolidation areas are tricky tho for candles
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #396,040
  • Sep 2, 2014 10:59pm Sep 2, 2014 10:59pm
Bareish to 4250 I'm short till then anyway when it hits I'll be looking to reverse my position but I still think it's a downtrend that has much further to go. Macdonalds just opened, happy days.
Winning until I'm not
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