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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #395,201
  • Aug 28, 2014 3:47pm Aug 28, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Just trading my plan. You can trade yours.
Just wondering, I carry no g/u positions but I mighht enter long in 3-4 week time
I expect a reversal because aug us data will be %70 bad (disclude unemployment)

too late for a short position, still early for a long position..

trading g/chf, g/nzd just makes more sense to me...
  • #395,202
  • Aug 28, 2014 3:48pm Aug 28, 2014 3:48pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} No to be honest GM some times it is shit,,lol i dnt pay attention to it but then i look back and you do get some good moves off it.It shows when price clears emas but it can go back a little look at the weekly ,,you have to get out too,{image}
Risk management comes first. One can get "good moves" even tossing a coin...that's not the point.
The method should outline your risk first and foremost otherwise it cannot be considered a trade = it's a gamble.
Any stop loss even an arbitrary one is better than none at all.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #395,203
  • Aug 28, 2014 3:51pm Aug 28, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} well done great stuff ,,new tractor maybe lol ,,or have you spent t on the ladies lol
Naaaa... I fixed the tractor yesterday. She been working like a champ all day.
As far as the ladies? ... ... Other way around brother. I'm saving my pennies. Winter coming and all.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #395,204
  • Aug 28, 2014 3:53pm Aug 28, 2014 3:53pm
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} Just wondering, I carry no g/u positions but I mighht enter long in 3-4 week time I expect a reversal because aug us data will be %70 bad (disclude unemployment) too late for a short position, still early for a long position.. trading g/chf, g/nzd just makes more sense to me...
...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #395,205
  • Aug 28, 2014 3:56pm Aug 28, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} Just wondering, I carry no g/u positions but I mighht enter long in 3-4 week time I expect a reversal because aug us data will be %70 bad (disclude unemployment) too late for a short position, still early for a long position.. trading g/chf, g/nzd just makes more sense to me...
I live in the US.
Our government will twist the numbers to whatever suits there needs at the time :-)
The only reason we haven't raised rates yet is they know we can't afford the hit to our 17 trillion dollar debt(and growing) & they don't want to crash the stock market. Their re-election is dependant upon it.
Just my good-for-nothing opinion. No facts to back it up :-)

***Just closed my GN shorts this week. Nice swaps.
  • #395,206
  • Aug 28, 2014 3:59pm Aug 28, 2014 3:59pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Howzit Nav, alright?
aye man..howzit bru..where have u been? ..i have been missing yur charts

hope all is well
  • #395,207
  • Aug 28, 2014 4:28pm Aug 28, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi HDA, Thanks for the updates & lessons. Nice trading. With the options @ 1.6550 & 1.6600 both @ $110 million, why wouldn't the option holders of 1.6600 defend that level just as strongly as the option holders of the 1.6550 level? You said "1.6550 is likely to hold, so we are going UP". With price right in the middle of the 2 levels, I'm just curious as to your reasons for thinking one level would be stronger than the other with the $ amount the same @ each level. I'm not disagreeing with...
@srt:

I want you to imagine that the options for tomorrow expired at 10am and regardless of whether 1.6550 and 1.6600 defend their level. Just imagine that all options have expired, what are you now left with to analyze?

Please see your chart below - and give me all the high probability reasons why 1.6550 should hold? There is only one condition.

YOU MUST GIVE ME FACTUAL REASONS

Tell me everything that has happened factually to support the high probability.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...mentid=1499064



HDA OUT
  • #395,208
  • Edited 4:49pm Aug 28, 2014 4:35pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @srt: I want you to imagine that the options for tomorrow expired at 10am and regardless of whether 1.6550 and 1.6600 defend their level. Just imagine that all options have expired, what are you now left with to analyze? Please see your chart below - and give me all the high probability reasons why 1.6550 should hold? There is only one condition. YOU MUST GIVE ME FACTUAL REASONS Tell me everything that has happened factually to support the high probability. {image} HDA OUT
Hi HDA,

Thanks for the response.
Well, based upon my analysis of the chart, I'd say price is @ pretty strong support on the weekly so option holders are probably more willing to be holding longs than shorts(if options should expire in the $) so less likely to be defending the 1.6600. Not sure I have any facts.

Removing the options completely, I'd just have to say again, strong support on the chart as I see it. Sorry, I can't think of any facts to back up my opinions unless I started drawing fibs which I don't use too often.
This week's low is still above last weeks low.
  • #395,209
  • Aug 28, 2014 4:39pm Aug 28, 2014 4:39pm
We could very well go up to the 23 fib at least and meet the daily 200ema there.
4hr 55ema I feel is highly likely to be hit from this level before any possible down move
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 25 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #395,210
  • Aug 28, 2014 4:47pm Aug 28, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi HDA, Thanks for the response. Well, based upon my analysis of the chart, I'd say price is @ pretty strong support on the weekly so option holders are probably more willing to be holding longs than shorts(if options should expire in the $) so less likely to be defending the 1.6600. Not sure I have any facts.
@srt:

Come on srt - look at what has happened all week - look for the facts. Open your mind - train your eyes to see every thing.

Give me three more factual reasons and remember I said, all options have expired, so we are no longer looking at options for additional factual reasons.

Waiting patiently



HDA OUT
  • #395,211
  • Edited 5:32pm Aug 28, 2014 4:54pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @srt: Come on srt - look at what has happened all week - look for the facts. Open your mind - train your eyes to see every thing. Give me three more factual reasons and remember I said, all options have expired, so we are no longer looking at options for additional factual reasons. Waiting patiently HDA OUT
FACTS:
1-This weeks low is higher than last weeks low (depending upon broker, mine has sunday as part of last week).
2-We're above last weeks close.
3-2nd day in a row with higher-high & higher low.
4-Gapped lower & couldn't continue lower.
5-First higher weekly low after 7 weeks straight of lower lows.
6-Very narrow range week.
7-Price is above this weeks open @ 1.6560 (depending upon broker).= Green Weekly Candle
8-First week in 7 we didn't break through a BRN (1.6500).
9-No daily closes below 1.6550 (on my broker)
10-No daily closes above 1.6600 or below 1.6550

**No more momentum to the downside. Price going no-where. Inside bar this week. Indecision.

OK HDA, I'm out of ideas. I guess I need glasses or find a way to OPEN my mind :-)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly-5.png Size: 37 KB
  • #395,212
  • Aug 28, 2014 5:03pm Aug 28, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting srt
{quote} FACTS: 1-This weeks low is higher than last weeks low. 2-We're above last weeks close. 3-2nd day in a row with higher-high & higher low. 4-Gapped lower & couldn't continue lower. 5-First higher weekly low after 7 weeks straight of lower lows. 6-Very narrow range week. 7-Price is above this weeks open. **No more momentum to the downside. Price going no-where. Inside bar this week. Indecision.
Carneys Carnage potential rate rise = investment in GB remember 5.5% and 2 dollar to the pound plus the crazzzy scotts
  • #395,213
  • Aug 28, 2014 5:08pm Aug 28, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Carneys Carnage potential rate rise = investment in GB remember 5.5% and 2 dollar to the pound plus the crazzzy scotts
Sorry, talking heads aren't facts & I can't see them on a chart.
  • #395,214
  • Aug 28, 2014 5:17pm Aug 28, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Sorry, talking heads aren't facts & I can't see them on a chart.
yes but have you not seen the market move when that big head opens his mouth if he said in the morning were going to up the rate to 2% are you telling me that any charts tecs will stand the test of charting forget dojis bear bull it will move the market and that is a fact,,regards E
  • #395,215
  • Aug 28, 2014 5:21pm Aug 28, 2014 5:21pm
Well I'd love to hang out for the rest of this but I must take advantage of the remaining daylight here. Guess I'll have to catch up later.

Have a nice evening folks.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #395,216
  • Aug 28, 2014 5:29pm Aug 28, 2014 5:29pm
HDA,

I've looked @ the daily & weekly for 20 minutes & guess I just don't see the facts you see. I've put down what I see in the post above. No pivots, fibs, indis, etc...., just candles.
  • #395,217
  • Aug 28, 2014 5:35pm Aug 28, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting srt
{quote} FACTS: 1-This weeks low is higher than last weeks low. 2-We're above last weeks close. 3-2nd day in a row with higher-high & higher low. 4-Gapped lower & couldn't continue lower. **No more momentum to the downside. Price going no-where. Inside bar this week. Indecision.
@srt:

Always remember this and in the future, I want you to observe what happens everytime bear stops are cleared at the DEMAND ZONE or bull stops are cleared at the SUPPLY ZONE.

 

  1. 1.6610 stops were cleared (weak probability to be short) at the DEMAND ZONE - whenever that happens, the way is being cleared to move in that direction.

  1. The market has been heavy short and the first set of bearish stops have been cleared (HINT)

  1. What causes the explosive move up is that sellers will start to exit there shorts, profit taking.

  1. Those who sold at support - stops will get hit - adding to the move.

  1. No buy stops have been hit - so bulls are building a strong foundation - the longer a base takes to form, the stronger it becomes.

  1. Monday is Labour Day in the US - so we will be looking at an illiquid market.

  1. If you used fibs like I'm observing most traders have been doing - if you know where to draw the fibs correctly, we are between the .786 and .86 retrace and the D extension for a .786 and .86 is 1.27

  1. If you are like Davit who trades with Bollinger Bands - when all Bollinger Bands are ALL MOVING TOGETHER IN THE SAME DIRECTION this is a signal that the down move is going to be short lived and one should exercise caution shorting.

  1. The fact that there is an Option at 1.6550 is added weight that the base is secure (high probability)


I could go on with more reasons.


Now give me the FACTUAL REASONS for SHORTS and after you weigh the two - you either stand aside or TRADE either.

We must always look at both sides of the coin - BULL and BEAR - that way you keep your analytical mind open and not create a bias.

Let's See What Happens

Please see position trading plan, posted long before the market moved and you have a look see if it is doing what was stated. Now the rise I spoke about that is going to defy all logic is what is left to come to complete the trading plan.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post7697890


Please take note of the price levels in the trading plan from 1.6730 down to 1.6500



http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post7646533 - ORIGINAL PLAN written, Friday, August 1. 2014


HDA OUT

  • #395,218
  • Aug 28, 2014 5:47pm Aug 28, 2014 5:47pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @srt: Always remember this and in the future, I want you to observe what happens everytime bear stops are cleared at the DEMAND ZONE or bull stops are cleared at the SUPPLY ZONE. 1.6610 stops were cleared (weak probability to be short) at the DEMAND ZONE - whenever that happens, the way is being cleared to move in that direction. The market has been heavy short and the first set of bearish stops have been cleared (HINT) What causes the explosive move up is that sellers will start to exit there shorts, profit taking. Those who sold at support...
Thanks HDA!
Need more time to review everything :-)
  • #395,219
  • Aug 28, 2014 5:48pm Aug 28, 2014 5:48pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @srt: Always remember this and in the future, I want you to observe what happens everytime bear stops are cleared at the DEMAND ZONE or bull stops are cleared at the SUPPLY ZONE. 1.6610 stops were cleared (weak probability to be short) at the DEMAND ZONE - whenever that happens, the way is being cleared to move in that direction. The market has been heavy short and the first set of bearish stops have been cleared (HINT) What causes the explosive move up is that sellers will start to exit there shorts, profit taking. Those who sold at support...
Not bad for a kid on demo
  • #395,220
  • Aug 28, 2014 6:01pm Aug 28, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Not bad for a kid on demo
@hollowhead:



I know right

The last time I posted an account here in Forex Factory - a trader by the name of Mr. Hatch took a screen shot of it before I could delete it and then he reposted it. That's why I NO longer post any information to prove anything to anyone.

Here it is: Wednesday, January 19, 2011

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1295436021


Up to this day - it still has not been deleted

HDA OUT
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