EUR/CHF

, about 50pips to the floor yet no position taken, what can possibly go wrong if i start building longs now? spikes?

I would say the major risk is to go to 1.20 and stay there for ages ...

that would be pretty frustrating especially with negative swaps

Be prepared to be (eventually) frustrated then, should you want to long E/C...

I agree

We had test of 1.2050 last support before floor if we not counting 1.2030. Swiss is moving around 15/25 points per day so for SNB 1.2050 and lower is well red light.

We could see quick spike lets say to even 1.2015/10 most but this 130/140 really is getting slower and slower every hour.

Only question do we see rebound up to 1.2090/95 or to 1.2130 before spike close to floor.

Daily RSI well below 25 almost push for 30/35 points is not really great idea

IF EC bears takes it to the floor and tries to fight the SNB to break the floor (not only a test to the floor) then i think that the SNB will break their teeth and lower the rates (impose negative rates) and it can increase the buffer on housing loans to contain the housing bubble. don't panic just make sure your account holds till 1.2

Right now we have extremely fucking good risk reward on going long. I dont understand people who short this close to the peg. But I respect them from doing that as they have been profitable for now.

I think it might have reached close to the lowest levels for a long time now. The closer we get to the peg the bigger interest to go long. I agree with you about the risk reward.

Look at weekly chart. This pair has slowly been lowering since may 2013. The chanse of a reversal tomorrow or next week before we get very close to the peg whats the odds? It feels like it might gonna hit 1.20 but i think it is good risk reward to have long right now.

Whats the odds that we would even see that upcoming weeks? I see it as very low. I think the pair would start bouncing pretty heavy if we get close to it.

i don't think the bears will give anyone the chance, if they are going to test the floor they are going to do it now to burn retail. because the majority of retail didn't expect the EC to go all the way back to these levels and they might have mismanaged their reserve funds

also, i think an introduction of a QE by the ECB will push the EC up and not down on expectations that such stimulus will have a positive impact on the economy in the EU and inflation expectations will increase, QE worked in the UK and in the US, so why not in the EU? the QE will drive the euro down (like the USD was debased during the QE) but also the CHF value will go down since there is a floor and they are highly correlated, so i wonder what kind of safe haven flowing to the swiss franc if it is depreciating? there won't be stop losses also? what happened to those positions that were sold on USD/CHF on 0.87 and 88 and now we are at 0.915? is this safe haven losing over 400 points? well i prefer to call my long on EC a better decision that those so-called safe havens since i am protected by the floor.

Yes that's me. I made a call on EC and I was right. I made money too.

I've made another call since then on EC which was also right and I wrote it in this thread because it is a thread about EC.

I will continue to make my calls because I don't care what you think.

What do you think - buy EC and wait - yes we know so stop going on.

Good job with the shorts. You have probably been doing better than many of us here Dont listen to J.Clinton he is fucked in the head.


Will we see an another bearish day on this pair? I belive that this pair will actually be more technically than before. We are so close to the peg that we will see movements at price action levels like never before. I see this as bullish today. And it might be a rally up and create a weekly pinbar.

It's good sport though reminding him he's a plum which I'll get some satisfaction from until EC does turn up and his amazing buy, hope and wait strategy pays off. I've been day trading for years. I like to get in and out and take my money. EC definitely does work technically if you look at the intra day action. It always respects daily pivots when it is moving like now. But what do I know. Just look at your chart. You'd have to be a complete nut to lose money in a strong down trend. Just sell at any point and wait. Unless you're long.........

Russia Ukraine crise has been extreme level since yesterday. And who wants to have the cash in Euro since it is close to the problem. I understand those who put the cash in USD and CHF. We need some sort of positive news from russia-ukraine.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/28/wo...html?hpt=hp_t1

And this is why

http://i57.tinypic.com/fbc6jb.png

EUR/GBP or GBP/CHF ?

Same thing - almost. The GC chart seems to react more technically. I watch which way EC is going and then go either Long or Short on EG or GC depending on my EC bias. does this make sense?

So right now my bias on EC is Long so I will only go Long on EG or GC. I was going Short on EG the last few days. Today I decided the bias has shifted on EC to Long so now I will only go long on EG or GC.

Can't stop when reading stupid comments by many on EC thread.

Some who have small goals and dreams like themselves can stay living in their poor world of 3-5 pips, but stop living in delusion that you are doing something important!!!

EC Bulls can make much more profit like longing 1.2055 closing 1.2065, you dumb only the big boy bears are the one real winning when having a position held from 1.26 1.25 1.23 till this level, they care less of even intervention, they are in big profit, playing big not small like you asking for donations of 3-5 pips from here and there
What are you proud of small bears. EC bulls were in an always position of gaining those small pips of yours at any upper levels 1.21 1.22 1.23. It took many months for EC to hit current levels. At worst EC Bulls back are protected by SNB, who protects you small EC bears!!!!

At least EC Bulls have their minds and body fully relaxed, knowing that there will never be a break of 1.20, not like the poor bears risking 3-5 pips to loose 1000
When they hadn't learn from UJ bears horrific ending, no problem keep on adding 3-5 pips, trading nervously afraid like hell to get an end result of loosing 100s of pips at one moment, bang your account.

I really feel sorry for some people, instead of looking at the bigger picture where all the money is found, they prefer staying small in their stupid world.

Imagining how the big boys bulls shorted EU 1.3990 and seeing their profits run hugely while EU bull small boys were happy to gain 3-5 pips from time to time in the drop of the euro. At worst, EC Bulls can consider their open positions at current levels as long term trading EU Although needs more patience and time.

You can win that easily in 1 minute from trading EU UC EJ AU GJ instead of waiting for EC to go down 3-5 pips after 30-60 minutes if not much more

You guys never learn from big minds, resting on the beach and mountain while their accounts running in big profits because they looked at the bigger picture not all time in front of their screens searching for 3-5 pips

Regarding EC, I'll continue holding my Super Heavy Longs and longing more if it goes toward 1.2030 and 1.2015.

I advice EC Bulls to not set a take profit, you never know when the spike intervention.......comes

i agree, and i expect SNB to lower rates to a negative turf in case of a consistent fight on the floor, who knows maybe we will see a preemptive action in the SNB next meeting even if we didn't reach the floor

Agree, those who short at this level are stupid. I can only see two good options: 1. Go long at this level. 2. Wait for a position closer to the peg.

nice interview for ec bulls of SNB jordan in swiss newspaper, he reitereated that snb will enforce he eurchf floor at 1.20. "President of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan has repeatedly said he will exclude no measures to shield the cap"
snb will most probably not change the floor ti 1.25 or 1.30 as some would believe, but "no measure" hints to snb would likely adjust rates to go below euro rates and that will help stay off the floor while with time and with less tension between russia/ukraine, we should see a much higher ec 1.25 at least as a first step but possibly much more- with a USDCHF rate at around 1.15, remember this is approx what happened to uj from 75 to 105.