EUR/CHF

a 12 points bounce woo fkn hoo...

now the EC will drop on concerns Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace.. safe haven people safe haven !!

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...nese-airspacet

Anyone buying EC?

I've been waiting all year for price to get this low in order to start a buying campaign. I've already started buying and will continue to do so whether price goes up or down.

My view is that price will start to rise due to the anticipation that the SNB will defend the peg at 1.2 and therefore I don't expect it to go all the way down to that level.

I'm hoping for price to rise to about 1.2150 - 1.2200.

Does anyone here want to share their plan?

S1 today is at 1.2055 on my chart. I think we're heading for there but I'm not betting on it. The last time SNB got involved it was way below 1.20. Then it stayed at 1.20 for a looooong time. We might get to 1.20 and we might get slightly lower. The SNB might not get involved at 1.20 exactly. The difference to the SNB of 50 pips either way is negligible. I know you guys are waiting for your spike upwards. Surely the big boys are waiting for the spike upwards to then sell back down to 1.20?

Everyone seems to expect a spike up. I don't think we'll get it. I don't expect the SNB to come out guns blazing. The expectation of intervention will make EC go up in more a gradual(normal PA) way. We'll that's what I expect nway.

EURCHF is going near 1.2, fundamentals are strongly in favor CHF. I´m sure SNB will defend floor, but one spike down must clean big lots buyed 1.23, 1.24 and stop losses below 1.2, maybe they must go to 1.15 to burn retail, below 1.2 this pair will be finaly for buy.
Negative swaps will eat half of your account and final spike will kill you, 98% of retail is long in this pair, but who is short??? who is on the other side? http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm BIGONES!
They have 36000 contactsCHF long, 5100 CHF short, small traders are oposite 6100 CHFlong, 21000 CHF short
Good luck.

Strongly agree with you. BIGONES are short EC all the way to 1.20 or until SNB acts, EC will fly 2 or 3 BF in one week whenever they Long EC.

Yes we Hit S1 - should have bet on that.....

Reading about all you guys going Long Long Long has given me the fear. I should really stop reading this.

EC price will not get bellow 1.20, thats for sure,
anyone trading this pair last 4 years knows peg wont be broken,
but it can go to 1.202-7 like before 2 and half years and staying there almost 5 months without moving
SNB will hold no doubt about that

Only if SNB confirm their 1.20 cap.
One thing I cannot understand: why sellers are so stubborn even they know they cannot go further down. Why don't they buy instead of selling euro. Isn't it more profitable than slow BS down move.

Does SNB ahve any other option then confirm the peg?
They'll get 'broke' otherwise, and deflation will really start to take place.

Where are those SNB 'bids' at 1.2060?

SNB after failing buoy. They might appear at 1.1980-90
But if ECB intend to implement QE then early act will be better option for SNB else it will be too hard to defend 1.20. I dunno what Jordan is waiting for.

Guys pls, finally wake up, position of SNB in EUR is 176 mld EURO, in 2009 it was 37 mld. EUR. Some have bid for 139 mld. EUR and he believes, CHF will be stronger in future.
This amount of money can´t loose. I´m not saying SNB will remove PEG, but that 139 mld EUR must find exit strategy, they must find big amount of buy CHF orders?
How??? easy stop losses of retail below 1.2!
There will be spike as always, but down first! maybe to 1.15 maybe 1.1 in few hours, after that we can finally go up, after big SNB intervention.
I understand you believe in SNB, your deflation story and maybe PPP, but money talks. Retail will loose, play with big ones.
Regards.

stop loss EC pair means sell EUR not buy,
this would trigger more buys from SNB not sells, and bigestes losses in central banking never seen, worse then 1992 BOE defending GBP
if they lift floor up they can lower eur positons, not by dropping it

First of all, I'm no expert, but the numbers you are spitting out, seems a bit crazy. A spike to 1.1?! Do realize the amounts of orders it will take to push the price that low? besides why would the SNB allow that to happen when they are defending 1.2? Why should they get rid of their buy orders? Also why get rid of all the buy orders, if that helps to defend the peg?

calm down everyone, the SNB was criticized when the price went to 1.1999 once, so no nned to panic or anything just adjust your positions and money in reserve above 1.2 and everything will be ok, stop panicking plz

That is right, if we see 1.2 broken down this means bank did not follow what was promised. One point or 100 points is doesn't matter, fact is simple minimum level of exchange eur/chf is not lower then 1.2000.

Im long 30 lots from 1.2130 and 30 lots from 1.2101 with TP 1.2164 and 1.2143 not huge points but always better.

1.2030/40 area is top where we could go before rebound and test of the floor. We could test floor but before we should see bounce back to 1.2130 then go down.

I throwing my money at EG short.

It's going to be terrific fun when SNB lowers the floor.
Retail will be carried out on a stretcher.

From the stupidity of EC bears who are enjoying now some pips to whine later on when SNB Intervene just as UJ bears had done until they all blew their accounts and now asking for donation in the streets, to the stupidity of many posters on this thread, one who longs on off market prices(by the way always posts similar foolish sentences), the other who want to short EC at 1.2060 or 1.2055 for some 4-5 pips profit, another who started to believe his stupidity of floor being broken getting daydreams of 1.15 1.1....., more other who thinks SNB playing with him Nintendo!!!

For all those mental retarded: Your destiny will be the same of UJ bears destiny. 1.20 will be defended by the SNB, no single doubt on that.
Sit relaxed, there are 2 options, the floor raised by an intervention before 2016, or it will be defended to at least that date and possibly removed but never changed to below. Guess what?? By that time EC would be some 1.25 if not more
The pressure will be less and we might not even see 1.22 again.

Anyone remembers how after BOJ intervened UJ continued rising unstoppably??? All shut up, forgot that yen is safe haven and the currency was banged hardly. The same will happen to the Swiss franc!!
Many forgot that UC is only 0.9150, it's fair value starts at 1.0
Guess where EC would be at that time and level.

We had been more than a decade on downtrend. Anyone thought when the big trend reverses what will the price be??? Only imagine if we just went half the way the trend was in past some 14 years ago???
Some may say: no you are dreaming, at that time circumstances were different, war ........nonsense
Who imagined at that time we'll see many pairs on today prices???!!! Very Very Few if any!!!
Imagine who shorted UC some 10 years ago and woke up today to Long
Ofcourse not saying to sleep that deeeeep

The world changed as much as the market, why not it change again from now, tomorrow after some year???


To EC Bulls: hold on your positions, be patient, bet on time, your only worry must be if you had not calculated well and organized your money management

SNB credibility is very important for the Swiss. Defending 1.20 means defending 1.20. Fraction of pips was broken at past and on some not all brokers platforms,SNB had to make a statement clarifying the problem.

Who want to play go to Amusement park, Casino, play on playstation. Stay away of this thread with your useless opinions!!!!