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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,761
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:58pm Aug 25, 2014 9:58pm
Quoting Pmd1963
Probably a good time to go long. 103.85 has been support for a few days. Plus, the high impact news at 10 EST tomorrow will be bullish for the dollar. Boeing sold a lot of planes and the non-core will be huge. Core is less predictable, but I think the huge durable goods number will be very bullish USD because it will crush consensus. Thus, I don't think it is likely that Europe will slam the USD/JPY tonight. I think USD/JPY is a great long-term long at this point.
good insight, i know news is supposed to be very good, but we just never know, lets see what happens, but im definately bullish
  • #47,762
  • Aug 25, 2014 10:13pm Aug 25, 2014 10:13pm
take a look at EJ and GJ are still downtrend so UJ bulls need more patience. shortterm bearish likes you.
  • #47,763
  • Aug 25, 2014 11:21pm Aug 25, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Also might I add - and more importantly 9pm American time is usually a good indicator of Asian sentiment. The same goes for 10 am American time for American sentiment. If you don't already, start watching price action between 8:30-9pm American (eastern standard time) and 9:30-10am. You'll see exactly what I mean. I have to shout out Attila for that. Very good teacher of price action in regards to time of day- sadly he is no longer welcome here.
I trade Tokyo and indeed after 21:00 there is always a narrow consolidation-trendy phase, pretty low volatily since the first two hours of Tokyo and the first of Hong Kong have passed and there are almost any economic events released ( Very few days Some China data which affect the AU most of all, the latest at 21:00). Not a lot of trading opportunities since the big move has already passed, maybe very short term traders could take a lot of advantage of the time you are reffering to with a nice spread, since the price movements are so narrow; it is pretty nice info and analysis from the guy you are reffering to you got there.

I agree the weekly UJ chart is bearish and I wonder If some day it may fall along with the extremely overbought S&P500. However right now all fundamentals point to a bullish UJ but right now im going with the medium term retracement bears, probably not the best call.
  • #47,764
  • Aug 26, 2014 4:08am Aug 26, 2014 4:08am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} So what have we learned here? It seems as though Asian traders are shorting the dollar as they come in to work and start their work day. I would wager we may see another bear candle around 4am as London traders go in to work. I wouldn't count on the American candle, as high impact news is at that time (10am)- however; should the news be bad, we could see a more exagerated candle as the news traders, and American price action traders jump on the bear train. I'm not saying this to you in particular, as I don't know what your trading experience...
Thanks for your observations. Just a point of correction on London timings for you. The UK stock market opens at 8am local time (3am ET). The timing was moved to be the same as Frankfurt some years ago in order to dampen the massive volume spike that used to occur at London open. The trading day therefore begins at 8am including UK bank forex transactions.
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  • #47,765
  • Aug 26, 2014 4:14am Aug 26, 2014 4:14am
Why don't you guys use GMT or UTC, rather than this Eastern Daylight stuff or your local times. It's a big world out there, if you've ever bothered to look. Oh, and it's round as well.

Or, if you're going to reference the time with respect to JPY moves, how about looking up the time in Japan instead. Trust me, it's not against any law to do so.
  • #47,766
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:25am Aug 26, 2014 5:25am
Before stock markets go up and up…. USD/JPY hardly goes up… now Nikkei comes down nicely… USD/JPY hardly moves down… haha… this pair is on some kind of retard program right now...
  • #47,767
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:04am Aug 26, 2014 6:04am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Thanks for your observations. Just a point of correction on London timings for you. The UK stock market opens at 8am local time (3am ET). The timing was moved to be the same as Frankfurt some years ago in order to dampen the massive volume spike that used to occur at London open. The trading day therefore begins at 8am including UK bank forex transactions.
Thank you very much for that correction- I'm always asleep during London open, and I've never in the last 3 years (at least) to bother trading it. I notice the only move worth a shit we got out of London was a bearish candle around 4-5am as I originally suggested. I think of it as a range +/- 1 hour. Gotta give people time to have their coffee (or maybe tea in London?) Same with US, we actually open at 8, work typically starts at 9, but 10 is when the action hits.

Quoting Mpt
Why don't you guys use GMT or UTC, rather than this Eastern Daylight stuff or your local times. It's a big world out there, if you've ever bothered to look. Oh, and it's round as well. Or, if you're going to reference the time with respect to JPY moves, how about looking up the time in Japan instead. Trust me, it's not against any law to do so.
Simple- because I don't trade in GMT or UTC. I appreciate your attempt at sarcasm, but I trade the way I want to trade, using the times I want to use. I suggest if it's that big of a problem for you (as you seem to make it sound) that you place me on ignore or do the time conversion yourself.
  • #47,768
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:31am Aug 26, 2014 6:31am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Thank you very much for that correction- I'm always asleep during London open, and I've never in the last 3 years (at least) to bother trading it. I notice the only move worth a shit we got out of London was a bearish candle around 4-5am as I originally suggested. I think of it as a range +/- 1 hour. Gotta give people time to have their coffee (or maybe tea in London?) Same with US, we actually open at 8, work typically starts at 9, but 10 is when the action hits. {quote} Simple- because I don't trade in GMT or UTC. I appreciate your...
Huh? I was addressing my comment to various people, but if the hat fits .... These are international forums, but I have noticed, in recent times, a marked tendency for posters from some places to assume that the entire planet runs on one timezone. I simply find it curious.

Meanwhile, UJ is still deciding whether it's in a reversal or continuation diamond formation. Or at least it was at 2129 Australian Eastern standard time!
  • #47,769
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:32am Aug 26, 2014 6:32am
Expecting to see 103.35-103.40 tested soon enough…. who knows though.

As of right now it's just too strong… can't even break below 103.70
  • #47,770
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:37am Aug 26, 2014 6:37am
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  • #47,771
  • Edited 7:04am Aug 26, 2014 6:40am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting Ck87
Expecting to see 103.35-103.40 tested soon enough…. who knows though. As of right now it's just too strong… can't even break below 103.70
Looks like 104.x

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  • #47,772
  • Aug 26, 2014 7:06am Aug 26, 2014 7:06am
Based solely on what's happening now (and has happened, with the present formation height being about 78 pips) a break over 104 and a retest from a higher level takes it to 104.8 ~ 105.3. Conversely, a fall under 103.8, probably followed by a retest from below takes it down to 103 or 102.5.

Target is often equal to formation height (in pips) or height times 1.618 (sometimes)
  • #47,773
  • Aug 26, 2014 7:20am Aug 26, 2014 7:20am
Pre-market opening high on Sunday was 104.485
  • #47,774
  • Aug 26, 2014 7:41am Aug 26, 2014 7:41am
Quoting Mpt
Based solely on what's happening now (and has happened, with the present formation height being about 78 pips) a break over 104 and a retest from a higher level takes it to 104.8 ~ 105.3. Conversely, a fall under 103.8, probably followed by a retest from below takes it down to 103 or 102.5. Target is often equal to formation height (in pips) or height times 1.618 (sometimes)
fully agree... 103.50 is seen as immediate support, which if breached would provide a buying opportunity near 103.00. The current retracement might be only because of short-term overbought conditions (RSI > 70).
The pair has move out of its recent trading range between 102.00-103.00 on the upside, and hence overall bias remains bullish. Expecting the pair to climb back to test 105.40-50 resistance, marked by 2013 highs...
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  • #47,775
  • Aug 26, 2014 7:48am Aug 26, 2014 7:48am
Quoting HareshBM
{quote} fully agree... 103.50 is seen as immediate support, which if breached would provide a buying opportunity near 103.00. The current retracement might be only because of short-term overbought conditions (RSI > 70). The pair has move out of its recent trading range between 102.00-103.00 on the upside, and hence overall bias remains bullish. Expecting the pair to climb back to test 105.40-50 resistance, marked by 2013 highs... {image}
Indeed. But first we have to get the direction right - a good rejection from 104, now it needs to lose 103.8, probably retest it - or the general area - and then the trend direction is confirmed.

A cautionary note - it may yet be a continuation (up) that just has not completed. The apex appears to be around 103.8, so it could still move down to 103.6/7, then run back up again - hence the need for retest

Anyway, best of luck.
  • #47,776
  • Aug 26, 2014 7:57am Aug 26, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Indeed. But first we have to get the direction right - a good rejection from 104, now it needs to lose 103.8, probably retest it - or the general area - and then the trend direction is confirmed. Anyway, best of luck.
  • #47,777
  • Aug 26, 2014 7:58am Aug 26, 2014 7:58am
Quoting NuNix
will consider to add long positions at 103.7x if we get there today
add @103.86 stoploss 13 pips
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  • #47,778
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:10am Aug 26, 2014 9:10am
I am currently bullish on UsdJpy, but i am trading it off the daily and weekly chart. So a small correction towards 103.00/102.80 is not going to change my view. Sooner or later we are going to push for 105.00 there is a very important weekly trendline, which will halt the rallye for a short time afterwards a move towards 108.00 is in the cards if fundamentals keep the usd in favor like nowadays. The break of the 101-103 range is a very important step, so sellers should be a little bit cautious and dont stick to long to your positions.

The divergence between the FED and the BOJ is very obvious, plus the GPIF is going to start asset buying, so we have bad news coming up the horizon for the JPY and the USD is looking pretty solid. So there is money to be made, with a little patience, alot of money imho, when technicals and fundies line up this good all one needs is a killer instinct and a little bit of patience.

So i am currently long, and looking to add to my position towards 103.00 with a stop at 102.20, 1st target 105.00 and if fundies still align 2nd target 108.00.
consistency wins
  • #47,779
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:26am Aug 26, 2014 9:26am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Thank you very much for that correction- I'm always asleep during London open, and I've never in the last 3 years (at least) to bother trading it. I notice the only move worth a shit we got out of London was a bearish candle around 4-5am as I originally suggested. I think of it as a range +/- 1 hour. Gotta give people time to have their coffee (or maybe tea in London?) Same with US, we actually open at 8, work typically starts at 9, but 10 is when the action hits....
Absolutely, and I am always asleep during Tokyo open, although I did think briefly about working through the early hours of my morning. For one thing there is often a droop on UJ when the Nikkei and/or businesses get going.

Uk steps up a gear at 9am. That is when the high-street banks open to retail customers. It is also the start of the normal office working day so all the industrial or commercial order processing begins from then.
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  • #47,780
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:35am Aug 26, 2014 9:35am
Two big positive economic news events for dollar this morning -- durable goods and consumer confidence -- unable to move price much. I realize core durable goods orders were a disappointment, but there is no denying the weak market response to the strong consumer confidence number. Consumers account for 70 percent of spending in US, so you think that huge beat would have moved the market a little more. Looks like the market movers want USDJPY down for awhile. Suggests short term correction or sideways consolidation for a little while. I'm still very bullish long term, though. I also like short EUR/USD. Might be even better risk/reward there than in USD/JPY.
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