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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,741
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:32pm Aug 22, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting sergeibell
To me the most relevant words abouth her Statement: "The Committee reaffirmed its view “that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after our current asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.” But if progress in the labor market continues to be more rapid than anticipated by the Committee or if inflation moves...
The missing part is what the anticipated projection tells them about timing. I guess we must read the projections carefully.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,742
  • Aug 23, 2014 2:10pm Aug 23, 2014 2:10pm
Inserted Video
"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #47,743
  • Aug 23, 2014 6:00pm Aug 23, 2014 6:00pm
Attached Image
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #47,744
  • Aug 24, 2014 9:28am Aug 24, 2014 9:28am
US may launch a decisive full strike at ISIS in coming days....in response to the beheading.

Dollar may drop if it happens....just like the previous strike.

If not, it may test 104.4xx or even 105.
  • #47,745
  • Aug 24, 2014 4:00pm Aug 24, 2014 4:00pm
Gidday YEN Masters

Had a pending short 104.3

which was hit

With the EUR/US Option Expiries: $EURUSD 1.3115

Which could give US/JPY another boost

Even if it goes to 105

I will take another short

Its been pumped up for now

but the shorts will be stacking up in the trillions.
  • #47,746
  • Aug 24, 2014 6:12pm Aug 24, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting pohchuan
US may launch a decisive full strike at ISIS in coming days....in response to the beheading. Dollar may drop if it happens....just like the previous strike. If not, it may test 104.4xx or even 105.
I think it might go up or it might go down.
  • #47,747
  • Aug 24, 2014 6:17pm Aug 24, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} I think it might go up or it might go down.

You dont say Mediaboy. You forgot to add 'or it might go sideways'
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #47,748
  • Aug 24, 2014 11:45pm Aug 24, 2014 11:45pm
will consider to add long positions at 103.7x if we get there today
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #47,749
  • Aug 25, 2014 4:16am Aug 25, 2014 4:16am
i like to see 103.60
  • #47,750
  • Aug 25, 2014 4:35am Aug 25, 2014 4:35am
How about 101.5 ???
  • #47,751
  • Aug 25, 2014 6:28am Aug 25, 2014 6:28am
Failure to sustain the break out of 104 causing UJ to re-test ascending trend line support near 103.80, breaking which 103.30 and 103 can become reality. However, i don't support anything below 102.30 -102.10 region (after observing the daily chart).
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  • #47,752
  • Edited 11:50am Aug 25, 2014 11:37am | Edited 11:50am
Bears

Draw your attention to the weekly, a new harmonic Bearish Butterfly has printed, which supersedes the bearish harmonics I've been posting on the daily. This is a good thing if you are a bear!

Also on the weekly, you'll notice that every candle whether bullish or bearish tends to have a 50% retrace even in a strong trend (more than 90% of the time), so if you are looking to exit, wait until the retrace and save yourself the loss!

Beware, there is also a good chance we head to test the HH that printed at the beginning of the year, however; we may need a proper retrace to do it. 105.43

I'd say I'm viewing touching 105 as 50/50 right now, bulls have the trend/fund/momentum- bears have the technicals/harmonics/etc. Personally I'll be holding my shorts. Once we retrace last weeks candle 50%, I'll be cutting 1/2 of my exposure in profit and letting the rest ride.
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  • #47,753
  • Aug 25, 2014 8:10pm Aug 25, 2014 8:10pm
last 20 minutes it dropped from 104.10 to 103.85 wtf just happened?



AND still dropping
  • #47,754
  • Aug 25, 2014 8:18pm Aug 25, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting Liam0530
last 20 minutes it dropped from 104.10 to 103.85 wtf just happened?
Price action on the hourly. and bears trying to take control generally

look up "bear flag" on google
  • #47,755
  • Aug 25, 2014 8:29pm Aug 25, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Price action on the hourly. and bears trying to take control generally look up "bear flag" on google
yeah figured that, thanx, good get it over with, this was needed
  • #47,756
  • Aug 25, 2014 8:52pm Aug 25, 2014 8:52pm
Quoting Liam0530
last 20 minutes it dropped from 104.10 to 103.85 wtf just happened? AND still dropping
Also might I add - and more importantly 9pm American time is usually a good indicator of Asian sentiment. The same goes for 10 am American time for American sentiment.

If you don't already, start watching price action between 8:30-9pm American (eastern standard time) and 9:30-10am. You'll see exactly what I mean. I have to shout out Attila for that. Very good teacher of price action in regards to time of day- sadly he is no longer welcome here.
  • #47,757
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:00pm Aug 25, 2014 9:00pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Also might I add - and more importantly 9pm American time is usually a good indicator of Asian sentiment. The same goes for 10 am American time for American sentiment. If you don't already, start watching price action between 8:30-9pm American (eastern standard time) and 9:30-10am. You'll see exactly what I mean. I have to shout out Attila for that. Very good teacher of price action in regards to time of day- sadly he is no longer welcome here.
yeah ive noticed that 9pm ET is alot of price action, usually the time i hop on, all the way through the london open, good stuff good stuff, thanks

  • #47,758
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:06pm Aug 25, 2014 9:06pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} yeah ive noticed that 9pm ET is alot of price action, usually the time i hop on, all the way through the london open, good stuff good stuff, thanks
So what have we learned here? It seems as though Asian traders are shorting the dollar as they come in to work and start their work day. I would wager we may see another bear candle around 4am as London traders go in to work. I wouldn't count on the American candle, as high impact news is at that time (10am)- however; should the news be bad, we could see a more exagerated candle as the news traders, and American price action traders jump on the bear train.

I'm not saying this to you in particular, as I don't know what your trading experience is. I'm just stating generally for anybody that cares to listen
  • #47,759
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:17pm Aug 25, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} So what have we learned here? It seems as though Asian traders are shorting the dollar as they come in to work and start their work day. I would wager we may see another bear candle around 4am as London traders go in to work. I wouldn't count on the American candle, as high impact news is at that time (10am)- however; should the news be bad, we could see a more exagerated candle as the news traders, and American price action traders jump on the bear train. I'm not saying this to you in particular, as I don't know what your trading experience...
yep thats how its looking, bears are really going hard right now, and i agree with you 100% thats how i have my next day set up actually, im also thinking a nice drop into the 103.500 area can also get bulls back in action if it drops that low, (nice possibility if the US news happens to be bad)

holding my long USD position from 103.200

lets make bank everyone
  • #47,760
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:31pm Aug 25, 2014 9:31pm
Probably a good time to go long. 103.85 has been support for a few days. Plus, the high impact news at 10 EST tomorrow will be bullish for the dollar. Boeing sold a lot of planes and the non-core will be huge. Core is less predictable, but I think the huge durable goods number will be very bullish USD because it will crush consensus. Thus, I don't think it is likely that Europe will slam the USD/JPY tonight. I think USD/JPY is a great long-term long at this point.
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