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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,301
  • Aug 19, 2014 5:17am Aug 19, 2014 5:17am
Quoting Mpt
UJ corrective and bearish. GU corrective and bearish. GJ ultimately bearish - next week. Not that I use many moving averages ... but .... daily 200 (sma) is rising and sits now at 170.45. The last time GJ met this ma was at 126 in November 2012. I would suggest that any break below there next week is a little bit bearish, n'est ce pas?
Well... I am EMA guy, but I also look at the Price action. First of all, There is one very important EMA on a Daily and that is 153 EMA, put it on the chart, please. Do you see it about 450 days ago? This is where I said we are in a bull trend and specific level should be watched and everybody laughed. It is a strong dynamic pivot, it served as a resistance several times in the past and now it looks as support.

Now if you put Monthly chart on for Price action, you will see this month's bar looks like the mirror of the bar 2 months ago, and there is a Bearish Pin in the middle. If price closes like this then we'll most probably be heading South in the next month and toward you-know-where. Except (and this is more probable scenario) if this month finishes as a Bullish pin, then price might climb easily toward 177.3-4 area.
  • #14,302
  • Aug 19, 2014 11:59am Aug 19, 2014 11:59am
Not a bad place to be long. Also sitting at the bottom of the weekly range.

I'll be trading this pair this week.
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  • #14,303
  • Aug 19, 2014 1:11pm Aug 19, 2014 1:11pm
For medium and long term is was ready for short !. We will wait at 138.
  • #14,304
  • Aug 19, 2014 7:06pm Aug 19, 2014 7:06pm
SL @ BE
  • #14,305
  • Aug 19, 2014 9:12pm Aug 19, 2014 9:12pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Well... I am EMA guy, but I also look at the Price action. First of all, There is one very important EMA on a Daily and that is 153 EMA, put it on the chart, please. Do you see it about 450 days ago? This is where I said we are in a bull trend and specific level should be watched and everybody laughed. It is a strong dynamic pivot, it served as a resistance several times in the past and now it looks as support. Now if you put Monthly chart on for Price action, you will see this month's bar looks like the mirror of the bar 2 months ago, and...
Hi mate, I can't disagree with any of your comments. The other day I suggested that 171.5 or so would have to break to support a bullish view (that is, this current move from 175.3 is a mere correction - although I had expected a new low before it returned to 171.5) and 169.5 has to break to confirm a bearish view.

Right now, as it sits at 171.1, it really has to crawl back over about 171.4 to suggest that it's heading back up to break 171.6. At the moment, GU sits only a few pips above what I consider support, whereas UJ has just run right into what I assume to be resistance.

This thing has to prove itself one way or another and until then I'm happy to just watch.
  • #14,306
  • Edited 3:59am Aug 20, 2014 2:48am | Edited 3:59am
Good morning. I just woke up. ... I think Japanese Trade Balance will have to become a red colored news on FF Calendar. I still claim Fokushima plays a major role. This week again I heard that some country rejected import of their cars as they were radioactive and another country rejected Japanese request to lift the ban on fish import to that country. Fokushima is ongoing and now they openly admit Plutonium and Uranium is being washed to the sea. They have zero control on the situation, heck they even gave up on building frozen wall. Reports are coming out slowly that some people consider moving, reports are that there is more and more cancer, and reports that they found fuel particles from Fokushima in Tokyo and suggestions that Tokyo should be evacuated... Fokushima can be a master switch on the graph. Authorities are doing the best they can (from psychological point) heck they even allowed citizens return to yet another county next to Fokushima, but you can't fool people forever. Fokushima is ongoing and there is currently no solution.

As far as price is considered, 172 could stall the price and bounce, but a clear cut above 172 could lead to 172.6 easily and would be very Bullish sign.
  • #14,307
  • Aug 20, 2014 3:12am Aug 20, 2014 3:12am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Good morning. I just woke up. ... I think Japanese Trade Balance will have to become a red colored news on FF Calendar. I still claim Fokushima plays a major role. This week again I heard that some country rejected import of their cars as they were radioactive and another country rejected Japanese request to lift the fish import to that country. Fokushima is ongoing and now they openly admit Plutonium and Uranium is being washed to the sea. They have zero control on the situation, heck they even gave up on building frozen wall. Reports are coming...
Yep, this move may encounter resistance fairly soon, or it could go on for a long way. I really don't know. When it's finished, it WILL fall back into its broken resistance/turned support and then rise ... subject, as usual to the old 169.5 caveat. From where I sit, it is now breaking up over the resistance that has held it down since 175.3.

At some point in the near future, it becomes very bullish. We are in a correction.
  • #14,308
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:11am Aug 20, 2014 6:11am
Price is trying to fake resistance at 172
  • #14,309
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:22am Aug 20, 2014 6:22am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Price is trying to fake resistance at 172
Wouldn't be surprised if it runs to about 173
  • #14,310
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:33am Aug 20, 2014 6:33am
Quoting Pharm0r
SL @ BE
Closed +5%
  • #14,311
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:34am Aug 20, 2014 6:34am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Wouldn't be surprised if it runs to about 173
173.55 on mine.
  • #14,312
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:02pm Aug 20, 2014 6:02pm
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  • #14,313
  • Aug 20, 2014 9:42pm Aug 20, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} 173.55 on mine.
Pretty strong resistance at around 172.4.
  • #14,314
  • Aug 20, 2014 11:47pm Aug 20, 2014 11:47pm
This sucker might breakout back to 175 and beyond...it feels like.. so far support locked in @ 170.50
  • #14,315
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:48pm Aug 21, 2014 6:48pm
Great symmetry pattern post....up there...
So if it goes up long term from here, it confirms our present major wave three...
we see on the weekly chart pretty well. For the Elliott Wavers.
  • #14,316
  • Aug 25, 2014 11:44am Aug 25, 2014 11:44am
Ok,tis thing is headin to north now...atleast to 175
  • #14,317
  • Edited 6:47pm Aug 25, 2014 6:08pm | Edited 6:47pm
Since rising back up from 163.8, some 145 trading days ago, this pair has been held up either inside or above the rising Daily Ichimoku cloud. Even on two occasions where it fell out marginally, it was pushed back up within about two days. It fell out again decisively on August 6/7 and has since been trying to climb back in.

It may well keep attempting to get up and I suspect that any solid move over about 172.8/ 173 (half way into the cloud) could turn it back to being bullish.

Having said that, the cloud base is at 172.45. Thus far, this is day 13 of being unsuccessful.
  • #14,318
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:09pm Aug 25, 2014 9:09pm
It is indeed supported and will be strong as long as the Bank of Japan is remains ultra-dovish and keeps buying 85 billion USD a month in bonds and there is a debate in the Bank of England to raise rates.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,319
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:54pm Aug 26, 2014 9:54pm
I was totally wrong in my last post. This pair is doing a slow roll over downward. UK data is bad and there is no justification to raise rates at all, no inflation dangers. Much of the Abenomics is priced into the pair. I made 621% in 12 weeks until a buy on GBP/USD took away 60% of that profit. I sold this dragon again at 172.17.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,320
  • Aug 26, 2014 10:18pm Aug 26, 2014 10:18pm
Wait one more day on the JPY pairs my friends....th
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