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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,281
  • Aug 14, 2014 1:10am Aug 14, 2014 1:10am
G/X pairs capitulating on my chart
  • #14,282
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:40am Aug 14, 2014 10:40am
167.20 on the weekly to the 48 EMA is coming next month but for now all the bad BOE news is priced in an most of the cards revealed by Carney. No rush to raise rates as UK inflation has been contained despite all the great data released in the last few months. 171.00 is stabilizing as a base for perhaps 40 pips higher before lower. This is a puzzling trade for me, too low to short and it's scary to buy too. Any thoughts out there?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,283
  • Aug 14, 2014 1:20pm Aug 14, 2014 1:20pm
I am sticking with the rule of trading forex " buy on the dips. I put a bid in 170.70 holding to 171.87 that area needs to be tested ( that whole area wasn't traded...news reaction.... whatever..). if all fails there about then its a short into 169.88 area.

Lets see what the reaction will be like plus it friday!!...

Good Luck Traders
  • #14,284
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:04am Aug 15, 2014 2:04am
UJ corrective and bearish.

GU corrective and bearish.

GJ ultimately bearish - next week. Not that I use many moving averages ... but .... daily 200 (sma) is rising and sits now at 170.45. The last time GJ met this ma was at 126 in November 2012. I would suggest that any break below there next week is a little bit bearish, n'est ce pas?
  • #14,285
  • Aug 15, 2014 5:46am Aug 15, 2014 5:46am
Quoting Mpt
UJ corrective and bearish. GU corrective and bearish. GJ ultimately bearish - next week. Not that I use many moving averages ... but .... daily 200 (sma) is rising and sits now at 170.45. The last time GJ met this ma was at 126 in November 2012. I would suggest that any break below there next week is a little bit bearish, n'est ce pas?
G/J Looking for a good short entry (1 trade / 1 account / 1 lot, long term)
SILVER Looking for a long opportunity (around 19.2xx / 1 trade / 1 account / 1 lot, long term)

these 2 will make my year...
  • #14,286
  • Aug 15, 2014 9:07am Aug 15, 2014 9:07am
I dont understand why this thread is so quiet when this pair has so much action.... GJ as of right now has bounced off of the june 1 support of 170.441 I would say we accumulate at this level. Should we close under 170.441 on the 15m chart. I personally will be buying a ton at 169.984 to 169.586
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #14,287
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:38pm Aug 15, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting CholiPop
I dont understand why this thread is so quiet when this pair has so much action.... GJ as of right now has bounced off of the june 1 support of 170.441 I would say we accumulate at this level. Should we close under 170.441 on the 15m chart. I personally will be buying a ton at 169.984 to 169.586
in 6 weeks....be looking for a place to get long....
  • #14,288
  • Aug 15, 2014 3:53pm Aug 15, 2014 3:53pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} in 6 weeks....be looking for a place to get long....
I sure hope we all make it to see 6 weeks from now.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #14,289
  • Aug 15, 2014 4:02pm Aug 15, 2014 4:02pm
Oh, Man....I was going to add that....good eye there, Chili
  • #14,290
  • Aug 15, 2014 11:24pm Aug 15, 2014 11:24pm
Whatever happens next week, this pair's immediate bullish potential very much relies on holding up at or above 169.5.

IMHO, a potential bullish set-up would be a bounce at about 169.6 with enough power to send it over at least 172.5, followed by a possible fall back into the 171 area again. From there, I suspect it would be over resistance and would proceed higher.

Conversely, an initial weak bounce from 169.5 that fails to get over about 171.5 ish, or an outright total fall out of 169.5 opens up an eventual return to 166 (top of weekly and monthly ichimoku clouds). Below the 164.6 ish area could see it revisit the bottom of the weekly cloud at around 158 in, ummm, .......... about 6 weeks.

Just curiously, 158 is the place that it broke north from last November and, when measured from 175.3 also equates to the 174.8 to 163.8 move earlier this year multiplied by 1.618. That area was very well 'tested', so the 158 idea is probably just silly speculation on what is a very wet weekend here.
  • #14,291
  • Edited 12:53am Aug 16, 2014 12:36am | Edited 12:53am
Did anyone else notice the frenetic behaviour of the market, minutes before that late nose-dive? It was like "latent volatility" or something.
  • #14,292
  • Aug 16, 2014 2:14am Aug 16, 2014 2:14am
Quoting Didgeridoo
Did anyone else notice the frenetic behaviour of the market, minutes before that late nose-dive? It was like "latent volatility" or something.
Uj hit the 76 retracement, then war broke out in Ukraine. Is there a problem?
​
  • #14,293
  • Aug 16, 2014 3:37am Aug 16, 2014 3:37am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Uj hit the 76 retracement, then war broke out in Ukraine. Is there a problem? ​
No significantly new revelations, as far as I know - with Ukraine. Given AUD's reasonable performance in the last week, there's no real shift in risk sentiment.
  • #14,294
  • Aug 16, 2014 3:46am Aug 16, 2014 3:46am
Quoting Mpt
UJ corrective and bearish. GU corrective and bearish. GJ ultimately bearish - next week. Not that I use many moving averages ... but .... daily 200 (sma) is rising and sits now at 170.45. The last time GJ met this ma was at 126 in November 2012. I would suggest that any break below there next week is a little bit bearish, n'est ce pas?
My chart shows the daily 200SMA sitting at 171.48.

Typo or am I missing something?
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #14,295
  • Aug 16, 2014 4:07am Aug 16, 2014 4:07am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} My chart shows the daily 200SMA sitting at 171.48. Typo or am I missing something?
Don't know. I saw it where I stated. It will be higher on Monday.
  • #14,296
  • Aug 16, 2014 4:11am Aug 16, 2014 4:11am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} No significantly new revelations, as far as I know - with Ukraine. Given AUD's reasonable performance in the last week, there's no real shift in risk sentiment.
Not widely reported, but it was on forexlive as it happened and was reported here. Go back through news.com.au
  • #14,297
  • Aug 16, 2014 4:38am Aug 16, 2014 4:38am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Not widely reported, but it was on forexlive as it happened and was reported here. Go back through news.com.au
Right. I will. Thanks dude.
  • #14,298
  • Aug 16, 2014 5:00am Aug 16, 2014 5:00am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Right. I will. Thanks dude.
Delightfully summed up on forexlive .... "Quiet start, data was poor, dollar went up, war broke out, dollar went down. Thank you and goodnight."
  • #14,299
  • Aug 18, 2014 6:43am Aug 18, 2014 6:43am
Everything seems to be sideways now with a sell-the-rally mentality.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,300
  • Aug 18, 2014 1:01pm Aug 18, 2014 1:01pm
So, I'm a Christ follower.....And the insides of me say the U S Dollar is about to tank......I don't know....
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