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Sonic R. System

  • #74,921
  • Edited 3:53pm Aug 11, 2014 3:41pm | Edited 3:53pm
USDCAD:

Sonicers,

I think here we have a PVSRA clue that is slightly different from what we look for, but that might be even more potent.

On the attached M15 we see the Asian session MMs moved the price up twice, with notable activity at the highs - two possible Stop Hunts of shorts - and then so did the LO MMs. The clue I refer to is the fact that the US open MMs did not also quickly attempt a Stop Hunt of their own. Yes, they did eventually retrace the price about 10 pips off the half nuimber, but that is a very weak response for the US MMs. So, the clue here is that with such a weak whip back up, we might assume the US MMs realized the jig was up - few, if any, traders that were short were leaving themselves exposed to being stopped out - and that there were no, or insufficient pending long orders higher on the queue to make it worth while for the US MMs to run the price higher for that shorting liquidity.

We might cautiously presume that long orders are now much diminished and that stops on shorts have been removed to protect those positions from Stop Hunts. And hence, this is definitively bearish now, and any more retraces upwards are worth considering as short Scout entry opportunites in building your short trade. As always though, make your own decisions on this.
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  • #74,922
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:01pm Aug 11, 2014 4:01pm
GBPUSD:

As with EU, this shows signs of the bull.

Friday, the MMs whacked the price below the whole number repeatedly, and finally left it there. This first day of the new week, with the price already below the whole number, all the up/down action points to the MMs building positions. Since they are doing this below the whole number, this becomes a PVSRA indication the MMs are bulls that are accumulating long positions.

However, also as with EU, note from your own H4 chart that the down trend is intact. If the MMs are becoming bulls - accumulating longs ahead of a planned future move up - they might range this for some time and incorporate some Stop Hunts on longs during this time, so patience will be rewarded. Note the GBP high impact releases that are coming.
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  • #74,923
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:28pm Aug 11, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting zouleisheng
loeil,I have a question:why didn't close at the red circles? Or, anyone others can answer me ? {image}
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Ride the Coattails of the Big Boys.....Stick Like Glue.....Add When They Try To Shake Us Off and Steal Our Positions! AUDUSD: I cannot answer for loeil, but I can guess that he figured the price would go higher than the 150-200 pips highs he first started to see, so he waited. In time, he probably lost enthusiasm for it going as high as his original expectations and he waited for another trip to the previous highs. Instead, price plummeted. He compensated by loading up on longs at the new lows, figuring the price to at least retrace about...
Yeah, Tah was right about this. So thanks to him for answering your question

Some things I would like to add more. If you are looking the area on H4 where I started add longs then you see that this area looks like accumulation. At least it looked to me. The same time price sitting at support on D1. And now if we add those clues what I already posted in first EA post then you understand why I even took those trades. So if there is an accumulation then there has to be some up move also, right? But 100-150 pips moving on EA is not actually moving. H4 shows that price range was about 100 pips, so if price range is 100 pips then how is it possible that the whole up move is only 150 pips? Yeah of course it's possible, in manipulated market everything is possible but to me it wasn't the real up move yet. But whatever happened there brought the price even lower so now I had too choices, to close them all with loss or wait and see what price action tells and maybe add more.

You know it's very hard to tell what is right and what is wrong in the market, why someone takes trade where nobody else is not taking, why somebody is seeing something what others not seeing, where is the right place to enter/exit and so on and on and on..Endless questions, we all have a different view of the market, different way to trade.

Golden words by Tah: Our method of building trades is very "forgiving". It allows us to err in judgement, even multiple times (!) and still end up profitable.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #74,924
  • Aug 11, 2014 5:58pm Aug 11, 2014 5:58pm
Golden words by Tah: Our method of building trades is very "forgiving". It allows us to err in judgement, even multiple times (!) and still end up profitable.

(Y)
  • #74,925
  • Aug 11, 2014 6:58pm Aug 11, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} EUDRUSD: Sonicers, Both Sonic and I are bullish on this one. Today the MMs whacked the price for probably more accumulation of longs below the whole number, at the various local SR areas previously established down there. This week brings more EUR and USD high impact releases, possible timing of substantial moves to accumulate more longs and/or to begin a Bull Run for Profits. On H4 we can see that PA looks to have formed, or to be forming a base, but with these upcoming releases more whipping and whacking might occur as the Robber...
TAH, I agree that this is Bull too, my opinion is this, Tommorow there will be important news for the euro and this is what will move this pair up but first i believe the MM's will push the price further down in a set of quick movements to take out long stop losses and sucker in shorting folks (at which this stage a long trade would be well placed) and also for a better position and this will be followed by a big action upwards...and ofcourse it will be too late for the ordinary folks that didnt think of these manipulating strategies before when they do realize, but ofcourse as you always say..we can never really know where price moves next so well have to just wait and let things happen.
YOUR MOTHERS ASS
  • #74,926
  • Aug 11, 2014 7:58pm Aug 11, 2014 7:58pm
NZD/USD Long scout entered.
Entered based on high volumes at lows on H1 and flattening TL and Dragon, no TP or SL at this time as I will wait to see what my charts tell me..
(TAH I don't remember if "Zig-Zag" is allowed on charts, but will remove if not.)

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AUD/USD Long scout entered.
Also based this on H1 showing me significant volume at lows and Stop Hunts Up Down and Sideways. Lastly, Asian MM's ran price back to 1/2 number before AUD press release only to add longs at the lows. (At least how I see it.) I still see this pairs overall trend is down, but I'm thinking MM's might need a quick retrace for liquidity. Therefor again no TP/ SL set as I watch for more signs.

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  • #74,927
  • Edited 9:08pm Aug 11, 2014 8:07pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting slimypips
NZD/USD Long scout entered. Entered based on high volumes at lows on H1 and flattening TL and Dragon, no TP or SL at this time as I will wait to see what my charts tell me.. (TAH I don't remember if "Zig-Zag" is allowed on charts, but will remove if not.) {image} AUD/USD Long scout entered. Also based this on H1 showing me significant volume at lows and Stop Hunts Up Down and Sideways. Lastly, Asian MM's ran price back to 1/2 number before AUD press release only to add longs at the lows. (At least how I see it.) I still see this pairs overall trend...
slimypips,

Sonic used it for a while, but not recently. It is okay, just unnecessary. If a PA wave is not easy to discern with the naked eye then probably it is not a PA wave we should much count on as part of, and support for a Classic setup. The obvious, smooth PA waves tend to better forecast moves with "staying" power. Other PA waves that are squished together, or ragged with a lot of uneven up/down action on the legs reflects MMs price manipulation, which can also mean that all the price is going to do is a head fake "breakout" or just more ranging until the MMs are truly finished position building for a breakout. So, the "Zig-Zag" indicator that simply draws lines from highs to lows to highs is just another example of an indicator that has no way in hell of factoring in the price manipulation schemes of the Robber Bank MMs. And the problem with using the indicator is that it gets your focus on waves as defined only by highs and lows, and not also on the construction of the waves. We want smooth, spaced waves comprised of individual candles with spreads that tend to b evenly changing, not ragged. We don't want just PA waves, we want nice PA waves.

-tah
  • #74,928
  • Aug 11, 2014 10:20pm Aug 11, 2014 10:20pm
I opened scout AUD/USD
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  • #74,929
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:34am Aug 12, 2014 12:34am
EURUSD, I still hold the long trades which almost last for over 1 month. I still think it is bullish. I wonder the pattern like this can be considered as inverted Head & Shoulder or not.
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Trading is not easy
  • #74,930
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:37am Aug 12, 2014 12:37am
USDCAD Short Trade Open & Closed:

Closed for gain of 18.3 pips average, 273.9 pips total. I am beginning to think this will continue to range for at least one to several more days, so I decided to cash in and take a step back and watch this a while longer.
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  • #74,931
  • Edited 2:14am Aug 12, 2014 1:42am | Edited 2:14am
Hello boys and girls , here's what I analysed on EURNZD .

Despite the fact that the long term fundamental analysis is a short for EUR and long for NZD , the price action and volume analysis stated on the technical part is somewhat different , totally opposite .
It can be clearly seen that there were decreasing sell volume in general and relatively small increasing buy volume in the past .
The current price just broken above the top trendline and there's still evidence of decreasing sell volume . Besides , there's still no ( H-L -> LH ~ ) waves being form .
I'm still waiting for increasing sell volume/decreasing buy volume along with ( H-L -> LH ~ ) waves , preferably on higher TF to sell this pair again .

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PS : I have some questions that I would like to ask for some opinions . When we read our volume indicators , do you all read volume as in a general ( like previously I drew oval shape in whole ) or do you all read volume as section per section ( Period separators as guidelines ) /every single bar side by side ? Sometimes when I do every single bar reading I got confused . Like an example , there will be buy and sell volume increasing simultaneously when reading volume bars close to each other . And when you read it as in general , looks like sometimes I have to ignore some of the volume bars . Do you all get what I meant ?
  • #74,932
  • Aug 12, 2014 2:31am Aug 12, 2014 2:31am
Quoting xiaotiao
EURUSD, I still hold the long trades which almost last for over 1 month. I still think it is bullish. I wonder the pattern like this can be considered as inverted Head & Shoulder or not. {image} {image}
That looks you maybe should wait for long time ....
  • #74,933
  • Aug 12, 2014 3:46am Aug 12, 2014 3:46am
Quoting xiaotiao
EURUSD, I still hold the long trades which almost last for over 1 month. I still think it is bullish. I wonder the pattern like this can be considered as inverted Head & Shoulder or not. {image} {image}
Well spotted

I'm holding my longs too for 3 weeks now and looking target area somewhere at 1.3500-1.3525.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #74,934
  • Aug 12, 2014 3:58am Aug 12, 2014 3:58am
Quoting loeil
{quote} Well spotted I'm holding my longs too for 3 weeks now and looking target area somewhere at 1.3500-1.3525.
same here, holding it now from last 3 weeks. -487 pips down, but will not let it go so easily
  • #74,935
  • Aug 12, 2014 4:57am Aug 12, 2014 4:57am
i holding long GU

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  • #74,936
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:02am Aug 12, 2014 5:02am
Before After
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Build your own dreams, or someone else will hire you to build theirs.
  • #74,937
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:07am Aug 12, 2014 5:07am
Quoting jojojo22
Before After {image} {image}
and next ?
  • #74,938
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:09am Aug 12, 2014 5:09am
Quoting jojojo22
Before After {image} {image}
Congrats jojo , very nice forecast
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #74,939
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:53am Aug 12, 2014 5:53am
For MR Tah on classic template

Too late for short and too early for long.
What i have learned going against trend cause big DD
Even euro will bounce back 1,35 me as Intraday sonicer would have wait more then week in DD- suck.
IF nice setup appears on m5 I would go long, possible rebounce from 1,33
Euro is like Titanic for me and MM keep killing all retail LONGS on this pair as GBP USD
Simple USD is in bull run.
EU and GBP AUD is in Bear run that is why all is going one way
Volume shows for me EU Bears getting exhausted, trend usually switch only with big news.
RESULT : wait for nice setup and get in when volume is rising.
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Build your own dreams, or someone else will hire you to build theirs.
  • #74,940
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:57am Aug 12, 2014 5:57am
kiwi holding long

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