Sonic R. System

I closed long AUD/USD

EURUSD Opened 2nd Long Scout...

everybody celebrate eur usd Bull so lets celebrate what do i see is MM closed short orders .
This is for my friday closing positions, MM clean short SL. the question is will the history repeat once again
Next week we will see where Mr Euro will go

Price Weakness and exploit
For a some time, I lurk into this thread. Maybe some new sonicer have a limitation (so they throw a "why" question about exit), that they can't trade as easy as loeil or TAH, throw many position with a relatively small size compared to the margin they have. Some maybe have only 10.000 usd with a 1:100 leverage and can only trade with 1 regular lot each position. Oh, that's sound better, because each 1 regular lot size using margin that near 10-16% from their account. The account maybe can only hold for 1000 pips drawdown. Can you survive with sonic? Yes. But how then? Maybe in a week, you only get 115 pips, but that 115 pips worth 7% from your account. Or in a month you can maybe got 1150 pips, but thats worth 7% too. That's all about risk management. The Ideal is the last (1150pips ; worth 7% from your account) because you can trade easily and not "too good to be true". But, did the "too good to be true" is exist in this bussiness? I said yes. But it also doubling your risk to get busted. Not only doubling, but multiply by ten factor is the risk you have. Those kind of game, must be performed by a true veteran of money management, a true veteran of battleground (trade while disaster occur into the country that you have the position on market, or economic crisis and the other thing), a true veteran of margin call (by the losses, you gained experience - and that was priceless) and because we are here at sonic system; of course a true veteran of Classic and scout entry. But, if you don't have that choice, learn well first in this forum. DO YOUR HOMEWORK always. Read the first page, lurk the 3746++ page and read that one by one. Here, I want to share some example how to find the weakness and exploit it.

The keyword is : "PLAN YOUR EXIT LIKE A BOSS" and "EXPECT LOSS EACH TRADE YOU MADE".
Chart below will give a clearer explanation how to find weakness and exploit it.
The interesting thing is, the latest entry is almost similar with TAH position on AUDUSD, the decision for "long" and the close area. Pip count doesn't matter as long it green.

Regards,
-GP-

EDITED : TAH, sorry for the little mod of the template. I did a little experiment on it... the color of the dragon - and the PVA candle

My view of PA time will answer all the questions about pair u have always long or short u will now later

I was away to close ON rdl but tp set there would get trigered
When retail go long, time to steal their money and SL.
PA show bulls building their longs all way down next week possible gu rebounce

balls of steel

Thank you Gupito ! Very nice explanations and and example.....

I'm agree with you...100% ! Time will show to ...us

Very good explanation, nice chart and good examples.Thanks for sharing!Green pips to you and all Sonicers!

EU: Consolidation only last week? If i read it correctly, coming week would be a mark-up phase?

Pl share your experts opinion.

My expert opinion?

It might, it might not.

There you go..

EURUSD:

The H1 chart shows that Wednesday, Thursday and Friday - three times! - the MMs whacked the price below the lower half number. These multiple Stop Hunts on longs sets the stage; the MMs loaded up with longs for a Bull Run for Profits. From the average of those three lows to the high on Friday is only about 100 pips. Because it is doubtful the MMs have an average that low for all their accumulated longs it is doubtful the high on Friday is the end of this Bull Run for Profits. More likely, the price will be driven higher. This is the case for thinking a possible trend reversal from bear to bull is underway.

On the other hand, we see the Dragon is crossing up thru the Trend now, and we know from experience that we should now include the possibility of a substantial retrace in our forward thinking. Another reason to suspect a retrace is the fact that other xxxUSD pairs (like GU and AU) that also had bullish signs prior to Friday, were held down Friday while this EU pair was allowed up. Why? To coax more longs into EU so they can be Stop Hunted later? The H1 chart clearly shows the US MMs made a big point of driving the price up thru the whole number and then supporting it, while other xxxUSD pairs were either held down Friday, or were whacked down even lower! This causes me to be suspicious about EU, that the MMs are trying to suck in longs again that they plan to Stop Hunt again when the time is right. And if this happens, it will be confirmation for a Bull Run for Profits.

So, the question becomes if this is a Bull Run for Profits that is starting, and if there is another planned Stop Hunt of longs coming, how low will the MMs retrace the price? Unfortunately, we cannot know how the MMs will move the price next. There are several intermediate SR levels between the lower whole number and the half number below that. The MMs could take the price down to any one of them, and even lower than that half number,....all the way down to the next lower whole number area. We simply cannot know. That is the nature of trading, unfortunately.

If you subscribe to the scenario EU is bullish, but with a possible retrace coming, then it would be wise to not overdo building a long trade just because it looks like things are turning bullish now. Build at your own discretion, of course. But, if you are building and holding out for a more substantial Bull Run for Profits then be prepared for the possibility of another price whacking, and maybe a real substantial one at that. The H4 chart is still very bearish, which suggests this move up on Friday might only be a retrace in the down trend, in which case lows might be revisited before any sustained upside run/trend reversal. Playing this for smaller moves - both directions - is an alternative worth considering until more evidence for a trend reversal from bear to bull exists.

In terms of risk/reward, the two best trades of the coming week are short EURUSD and short GBPUSD. Sell them Monday afternoon GMT. Close by Thursday afternoon GMT, at the latest. Initial stop loss 50 pips. Target 50 pips each, take half position off when it hits target, then let rest run for 100 pip target, with trailing stop loss of 25 pips for the remainder of the position.

Smell.. EU Bull...



Sonic

Opened -closed for quick ptofit

Sold the fake pump manipulation on USDCAD , price tanked as expected for nice 32 pips profit. Thank You TAH !

Well , after short analysis I see it was possible to be little more accurate. There is very small bullish volume bar indicating last long orders filled , it is dead on entry , just before price collapsed. :nerd:

Nice, I took this exact same trade. By the way where is everyone? On summer vacation?

EUDRUSD:

Sonicers,

Both Sonic and I are bullish on this one. Today the MMs whacked the price for probably more accumulation of longs below the whole number, at the various local SR areas previously established down there. This week brings more EUR and USD high impact releases, possible timing of substantial moves to accumulate more longs and/or to begin a Bull Run for Profits.

On H4 we can see that PA looks to have formed, or to be forming a base, but with these upcoming releases more whipping and whacking might occur as the Robber Bank MMs possibly attempt to build bigger long positions by sucking in longs and then stopping them out later. As it stands now and as you can clearly see on your own SonicR M15 chart, the first move of the week has been to relocate the price below a whole number - and a FR 50% retrace of the last bull swing - where higher activity has resumed. This is a PVSRA indication of bulls.

On the other hand, we can also see on H4 that the down trend remains intact, which means that a bullish outlook might be wrong and upwards moves might be to suck in longs so the MMs have liquidity for more shorting.

In other words, while there are signs of the bull here, they can at any time be overshadowed by a bear move, one that might put things definitively back in the bear camp. So, as stated before, now is not the time to be eager to be building a long trade - nor a short trade - but to give the Robber Bank MMs enough rope to hang themselves by showing us via more PA, including perhaps some Stop Hunts, what they are up to. If the MMs dilly dally the price for another day or so, we might still not have definitive clues. But if they later put on a big bear whacking of the price it could turn out to be a definitive clue. If the price subsequently goes back up, we'll have evidence of bulls that just did a Stop Hunt on longs. If not, and the price shows weakness instead, we'll have reason to suspect the resumption of the down trend is underway. Of course, a substantial move might not be forthcoming prior to a breakout. The MMs might just keep ranging PA while building. So, those traders without the discipline to exercise patience should probably confine their trades (in either direction) to very short term goals.