james16 Chart Thread

Thanks Mike. This is praise indeed coming from you mate!

I am very pity that my English do not allow me to watch webinars. May be somebody know are there soft which can take text from video? I say to my wife, even if I do not be a good trader at least I improve my English

Hi Mike and Lester:

On the topic of risk management, I had a couple of questions regarding slippage especially during news events, since volatility is elevated and slipapge at times can be severe.

1. How many hours before a major news event would u consider not opening a fresh position? The major news events I have are: Fed meetings, US Jobs number, ECB rate, Carney speech, NZD, CAD and AUD Rates and Employment numbers. Anything missed?

2. If already in a position, what are the risk management guidelines you guys suggest before one of the above news releases to either cut losses, close trade at BE or profit in order to protect from slippage

3. Do you guys hold thru all the other news annoucments? E.g. PMI news, Trade Balance etc.

Thank you,

Hi doerpn! Appreciate your help. I did alert on 93.80, so if price return to it, I shall get SMS and move stop to BE.

That's a great question courier12.

This is a very trader dependent thing, so I can only really answer for myself. There is really no right or wrong. Personally, I don't let any news events dictate my trades apart from NFP Fridays or a declaration of war (read: something huge). I really believe that news is built into the price anyway.

Now, there was a time where I used to have an extremely complicated trading approach because I used to think the more I knew the better I'd be. That type of trading style is utterly complicated and I believe unnecessary. In the old days, I used to take a top down approach where I'd read everything and anything on a country i.e. GDP, rates, employment figures, CPI, inflation, when elections are to be called etc. Then I would form a bullish/bearish bias and then look for PA confirmation. I don't do this at all anymore because I know in my own trading I only need a chart to be profitable. Full disclosure - over the past year less than 5% of my trades are formed with a news bias, however when I looked back on these trades in retrospect I can see that even without reading the news I would have taken the trades based on the chart alone.

I loved the way Mike put it in his webinar 2 weeks ago, speaking about an equities trade he was in, something to the effect of "here's a chart of CODE. I have no idea what they do. Maybe they break codes?". When he said that, I burst into laughter. I thought it was great, because as a pure technical trader you don't need to know anything about the company or country. As I said earlier, I believe that the news is built into price.

For your next question, if I'm in a trade today and NFP is being released in 8 hours, I like to be at least break even. Apart from that, I cannot even recall a time where I have pulled out on a trade because some news event occured. I do remember during the Greek Debt Crisis at the height of the bailouts, I was cautious about opening any EUR trades. However, again, the charts showed me nothing so even without the knowledge of the news it was a no-trade situation for me anyway.

To address your other concern about slippage etc. I'm not a scalper so I'm not really bothered by this. Because I trade through an ECN broker (where slippage is pretty negligible, arguably non-existent) and I trade high time frames, therefore my S/L's are wide enough that if slippage were to take me out, my stop would have been hit without it anyway. E.g. if my stop is say 100 pips and I get a 1 pip slippage, its not going to make a difference to me. Or say, if I have a buy/sell stop order and slippage nicks me into a trade or gives me a poor price by 1 or 2 pips, higher timeframes mean that slippage as a percentage of my stoploss is negligible and not a big deal to me.

I do remember one time in 2013 where I got triggered into a gold trade because spreads widened horrendously as it was a bank holiday or something in the US (I forget the exact details). But that's the worst thing that has happened to me in terms of slippage.

In terms of going through news announcements. The answer is yes. On Sunday I open up the forex factory calendar and look through the red news events. Just to be aware of them. Again, it doesn't dictate anything to me about any of my trades. However, I like to have a general idea about what's happening this week.

Ghous has made a good post about news: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post7076488

"You have a point but I don't think its something you can generlize for all news events. Most of the fundemntal activity is more closely tied to the technicals than is obvious. This happens because of the edge that some people who follow fundamentals have over others. Its the same edge that somebody trading technicals for the last 10 years has over a newbie.

Its very unlikely that every market particiepnt gets access to the same fundamental information at the same time. This means that some people can anticipate (or know for sure) what the outcome of a news event is going to be much before you long into your ff calender. Not all the time of course, but more often than not. This will then get factored in your price action as they will either choose to remain on the sidelines to consume the liquidity barrage as a result of the news announcement or look to position themselves to adequately benefit from the order flow. Their trading activity hence gets factored in your price bars and permeates into your technical analysis."

Looking to enter short the GBPNZD H12 PB.




Regards

Good move on GOLD - BE for now.

I`m in at 2.1596

Great aserafino. This is my style of trade. I spotted this on the H12 as well but didn't end up taking it as the 99000 wick high's from May 2014 bothered me and kept me out as I couldn't personally make it work for my type of trading.

I thought it had a lot going for it. Lovely false break of the 2.0x psych level, double top and several oscillators showing (weak) divergence. More importantly a great flip zone.

You should be at BE now so great trading!

Got it! Thanks FxLester!

Some more charts for you all. I expected to see some action this week with the Aussie pairs. Awoke from my nap to this beauty.

Third trade for me for this week, just locked B/E. I thought I'd take you through my thought process.

First step, I identify the context of the market I am trading in. I do this by zooming way out.



So longterm we are in a downtrend (months) and short term we are in consolidation (flag/weeks), and even shorter term we are in an uptrend (hours).

I'm looking for a short-term move so I treat this as trading in consolidation against the short term bull momentum. So I'm in a consolidation counter trend trade. Since it's counter and in consolidation I need lots of confluence. We've got the location, the double top pattern and (weak) divergence and a small PA signal.


As fits my trading personality and style, I like to scale out at the first area and move my stop to slightly negative and then be what I call 'net break even'. My stops are now at entry so I've definitely locked in profit.

As for my watchlist, I'm also in an EJ long trade which is in exposed risk.

Trade safely all,
Lester

Spoke to soon! After posting my AUD/NZD above, my other EUR/JPY trade has just moved to BE. Here's my analysis below:

Step one, I zoom the heck out to work out what kind of market this is. Clearly awful consolidation in the long term (months) and a bear trend in play in the shorter term (several weeks). Tough market, enough to keep me out, however there is a clearly respected support zone in play since Feb 2014.


Pinbar, double bottom, (weak) divergence on oscillators. Scaled out at the level marked. Not looking for a big move here. It's important to know when to be greedy and when to be cautious.

Very nice Video!

FxLester, love your clean charts!

I think EUR/USD is at a key support level

But this chart is not very clean, the support zone is not very clear.

Hello guys! I have a question. I get from my broker data with start of a day at 3 am on my local time and it not very comfort for me. I find on ForexFactory (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=206301) indi. It can make timeshift I want, so I can get a chart with start of day at 7 am what OK for me. What do you think about it? Or may be it is not very good idea?

I am in the AUDNZD trade as well.
This pair is a top favorite of mine. Looking back at this pair's history, it looks that most free flowing pair to me. In other words, it rarely forms those congestion boxes that I do not particularly like.

great D

We had a wick play bar yesterday that was a fantastic buy trade in itself. I used it to know that this trade was still valid as price should push through that wick

Here was a video I did for the guest side on wicks


now we need to try to close above this FTA(red box) and then onto the target becomes a much better probability. 70% of stop reduced but likely more at the end of the day for me

Best
Mike