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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #131,661
  • Aug 5, 2014 6:41am Aug 5, 2014 6:41am
I don't think GBPDKK is bullish, the main trend line is broken.
I think this pair is making a Head's and shoulder's pattern.

http://s1.postimg.org/g8kv543wv/GBPDKKDaily.png
image hosting over 10mb
  • #131,662
  • Aug 5, 2014 7:00am Aug 5, 2014 7:00am
Lester -

Thanks for the update on the trade, enjoying following your thought process. Love how you're enforcing IMO the 2 most important concepts - location and trade management/risk reduction.

I always plan at least my first risk reduction move before entering a trade. Personally I rarely go to BE until price closes beyond my FTA. If I've entered well, I've sold below expected resistance, or bought above expected report and going to BE too early is placing my stop on the wrong side of a S/R area. In backtesting and live trades I've seen too many times price come to my BE stop, take it out and move back in my favor.

By the way the flag means you're getting subscribers - members want to read your posts.
  • #131,663
  • Aug 5, 2014 8:34am Aug 5, 2014 8:34am
Quoting mbqb11
i'm mostly involved in equities but here is a ncie FX chart I am watching. Picture perfect resistance area. If price can give us some nice PA on a break or pullback to this area it would be nice! Great area to continue to hold as resistance or my preferred would be a flip to a PPZ Mike {image}
oh man if only we can get ourselves a daily buob over 2.15
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  • #131,664
  • Aug 5, 2014 11:28am Aug 5, 2014 11:28am
Hello traders! Remember my trade which is some posts ago? continuation...
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if DBHLC will turn into PB, I think need to close trade manually and may be go in long??? What do you think?
  • #131,665
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:19pm Aug 5, 2014 12:19pm
some thoughts about audusd
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  • #131,666
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:52pm Aug 5, 2014 1:52pm
Quoting FxLester
{quote} Wonderful chart doerpn. We're on the same page here as Donkey said above. I'll show you another from the same. {image} I took this trade on the same chart 2 weeks ago. Stopped at BE. Invalidation of a steeper trendline. Now I thought about this trade trade I'm in now a lot before I set my orders. In the end, I was happy to take the long I'm in and also happy to consider any shorts from the same area you have marked. I'll explain my reasoning below. I considered the prospect of shorts (from the 40000 level) as it does look like price is turning...
Hi Donkey, Hi Lester,
I agree with you- only thought the yellow TL to be stronger because of many more touches.....
Nice, experienced trade with huge push
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Have a nice day
  • #131,667
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:54pm Aug 5, 2014 1:54pm
GBPCAD moving my way - BE for now.

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  • #131,668
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:59pm Aug 5, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} oh man if only we can get ourselves a daily buob over 2.15 {image}
Hi mbqb,
you are not alone waiting for your wished scenario....
Have a nice day
  • #131,669
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:20pm Aug 5, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting dvimix
Hello traders! Remember my trade which is some posts ago? continuation... {image} if DBHLC will turn into PB, I think need to close trade manually and may be go in long??? What do you think?
Hi dvimix,
for me your new stopp looks good-above RN 94 and green MA !
You have the choice:
1. setting TP to the trouble area you are afraid of and/or
2. moving SL to BE
So you have a "free trade" and be able to sleep very well.
Otherwise if you are in front of your pc tomorrow you can watch for moving SL further in your desired direction on lower timeframes (H4,H1?)

Only my opinion. Have a nice day.
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Have a nice day
  • #131,670
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:23pm Aug 5, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Hi mbqb, you are not alone waiting for your wished scenario....
it's looking good brotha, few more hours
  • #131,671
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:35pm Aug 5, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting FxLester
Thought I'd give an update on the GBP/DKK which helps me bring up a price action concept I haven't seen mentioned on this thread called "Night Attack". I'm in profit now and have some locked in. My 4H bar is about to close in 12 minutes and we've just seen the bulls take over. Certainly this has to be a major financial institution i.e. Smart Moneys, Big Moneys, Big Boys. They have lots of nicknames in the trading world, but they are the people that move the markets as Zamfir mentioned. Here's the story so far: {image} Now we're hitting a major resistance...
Makes a lot of sense!
Have a nice day
  • #131,672
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:41pm Aug 5, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting dvimix
some thoughts about audusd{image}
You see there is a range between 92 and about 94.5?
I wouldn`t trade this nearly in the middle of it...
Have a nice day
  • #131,673
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:56pm Aug 5, 2014 2:56pm
Anyone looking to GBP/CAD on weekly or monthly tf?
It breaks a simetrical triangle, and have a huge potencial move up.

Charts.

http://s27.postimg.org/cj1a6k683/GBPCADWeekly.png
how to take a screenshot on a pc
http://s10.postimg.org/5mn01x7i1/GBPCADMonthly.png
upload gambar
  • #131,674
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:06pm Aug 5, 2014 4:06pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} oh man if only we can get ourselves a daily buob over 2.15 {image}
got my wish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #131,675
  • Edited 7:43pm Aug 5, 2014 4:16pm | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting nc_trader
I don't think GBPDKK is bullish, the main trend line is broken. I think this pair is making a Head's and shoulder's pattern. {image}
Hi nc_trader,

I think it's helpful to zoom out. See below:

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Blue line (A) I have labelled is the trendline we both see and have acknowledged. But if you zoom out, there is a stronger trendline at (B) in red I have labelled.

The wonderful thing about trading is that you can have two completely opposing strategies, and with correct money management and risk analysis, both can be profitable. If your definition of a bullish trend being broken is simply the TL being broken and it is working for you, then that is fantastic. However, for me, this is not enough. I'll explain below:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Here we have a classic trend. Higher highs, higher lows. I have labelled in (2) the break of a TL. This is not enough for me to make the call that trend is over simply because the TL was disrespected. It could be a false break, we could be making a massive pinbar on a higher TF, we could be bouncing off a longer term trendline. Any number of things could be happening. For my trading, I need to look for confirmation, and this is with a 1-2-3. That is, a higher high->lower low->lower high. It makes more sense in the image.

Just to summarise, two important lessons for newbies are:
1. zoom your charts out. When you're all zoomed in, every pinbar looks significant, and you can easily miss key contextual pieces of information
2. shallower trendlines are more obdurate. This means they are harder to break and invalidate. A steep trendline might get two bounces and then break. A shallow one can take a heck of a beating before the order-flow is sucked dry and we crack through

As for the H&S you mentioned, I'm not quite sure how you are seeing that. Correct me if I am wrong.

Hope this helps someone!
Cheers,
Lester
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,676
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:21pm Aug 5, 2014 4:21pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} got my wish {image}
That trade havê a risk/reward to los in my opinion. I only open a position if i havê at least 1:5 risk rewardql
  • #131,677
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:27pm Aug 5, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} got my wish {image}
What a beauty Mike. That's one high probability set-up.

I've got to add the Turkish Lira to my list of charts! Looks brilliant.

Quoting Donkey
Lester - Thanks for the update on the trade, enjoying following your thought process. Love how you're enforcing IMO the 2 most important concepts - location and trade management/risk reduction. I always plan at least my first risk reduction move before entering a trade. Personally I rarely go to BE until price closes beyond my FTA. If I've entered well, I've sold below expected resistance, or bought above expected report and going to BE too early is placing my stop on the wrong side of a S/R area. In backtesting and live trades I've seen too many...
Thanks Donkey. Mate, I like the way you put it, that going BE too early is placing the stop on the wrong side of a S/R area. It sucks to watch a trade you're managing too conservatively get stopped at BE or a slight loss only to see it rocket in the way you expected!

Whenever I move my stop I'm always trying to think how can I protect this little guy!
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,678
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:31pm Aug 5, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting nc_trader
{quote} That trade havê a risk/reward to los in my opinion. I only open a position if i havê at least 1:5 risk rewardql

Hey NC

Risk:Reward is fluid if you are one who reduces your risk as price moves in your favor(or against). I call it dynamic risk:reward and don't hear people speak about things that way in trading. It's crucial to my success

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post7192361
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post6851336

here is more information. This trade has very low risk,my initial stop is simply where I position size based off

Hope that helps

Mike
  • #131,679
  • Edited 5:30pm Aug 5, 2014 4:53pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting nc_trader
{quote} That trade havê a risk/reward to los in my opinion. I only open a position if i havê at least 1:5 risk rewardql
Depends on your style nc_trader! Mike, as he mentioned uses this concept of dynamic R:R. It is brilliant. I think this public video he has on their youtube page illustrates this visually very nicely.

Inserted Video


It's a live video he did 27th Jan this year of a two-day pin on the USD/TRY (as I said, I've gotta add this pair to my charts!). He position sized off the whole bar and very quickly reduced his risk, almost as soon as he was triggered.

I've watched enough of Mike's webinars now to see that I have a very similar trading style to him with regards to this concept he calls dynamic R:R.

The issue with chasing high R:R such as 5:1 or 10:1 is that you end up having to collect a series of losses which could have otherwise been profitable. This is fine. This is profitable. However, for me psychologically and personally, I cannot handle the drawdown of watching what could have been a profitable trade had I had the sense to take profit earlier at -> then watching this turn into a loss. Then collecting a series of losses waiting and waiting for that big winner of 10:1 or 5:1 to make up for the series of "little losses". I have tried to trade with a high R:R system and it doesn't work for me. I know it does for a lot of people and that is great.

The issue with drawdowns and losses is that it is the catalyst for making emotional mistakes and errors. Personally, I prefer a higher success rate with what I deem very high probability set-ups at the cost of missing a higher R:R.

Cheers,
Lester
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,680
  • Aug 5, 2014 10:15pm Aug 5, 2014 10:15pm
Quoting FxLester
{quote} Depends on your style nc_trader! Mike, as he mentioned uses this concept of dynamic R:R. It is brilliant. I think this public video he has on their youtube page illustrates this visually very nicely. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcKC-kG5kYE It's a live video he did 27th Jan this year of a two-day pin on the USD/TRY (as I said, I've gotta add this pair to my charts!). He position sized off the whole bar and very quickly reduced his risk, almost as soon as he was triggered. I've watched enough of Mike's webinars now to see that...
perfectly said Lester. It's like reading my own posts when you type you have your head on straight! Great stuff and thanks for clarifying for me too!

Mike
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