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  • #21
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:01am Aug 1, 2014 12:01am
EA is ripping, looks like it's headed for 4450 by week end. Small dip next week and then continue on to 1.49

4-hour
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #22
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:38am Aug 1, 2014 12:38am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Genius. If only I watched this years ago. http://youtube.com/watch?v=FyAeujRwLxM stops are fine but you need to be highly confident and only use a stop on a monthly support level and make sure your target is 25x greater than your stop. iE risk 1% to make 25% (even if you must pyramid the position, you can always BE on a pullback, but if you pyramid lightly, your cost basis want change much, so only a very deep pullback could hit your BE) I'm a huge advocate of adding to winners and losers. As long as you trade near the edges with light...
That guy is preaching an inverse-martingale method, if you didnt realized that already.At a point,sooner or later,but eventually it will wipe out your entire account.

Martingale is the "double down to HELL method".Nothing good can come out of it
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #23
  • Aug 1, 2014 1:10am Aug 1, 2014 1:10am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} That guy is preaching an inverse-martingale method, if you didnt realized that already.At a point,sooner or later,but eventually it will wipe out your entire account. Martingale is the "double down to HELL method".Nothing good can come out of it
You may not have watched the whole video. I like his method, but it's not what I do.

I add add to losers and of course I have a stop but it's never hit because I always get out at BE (if heavily leveraged) after the bounce (safety first), then re establish normal size position.

Reason it doesn't work for EAs (more than 10% per Annum safely) and for most traders is because they don't know where the edges are. If you are near the edges and something crazy happens, it's actually a blessing, you get a price that is rare (with larger size than before) with a high probability of reversal (it's called a gap slip, this happens when the floor is pulled from the market after a major spike, you will see it in 4 hours here with NFP)

Also could be called a "bump and run" and usually runs back to the breakout of no liquidity and then continues higher/lower than the original spike

I'm long small in EU with buy limits down into 1.3350/30. I know any spike down there will be sharply reversed (if hit today)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #24
  • Aug 1, 2014 1:17am Aug 1, 2014 1:17am
Any kind of "recovery type" system is a fallacy.It wont recover anything, it will just ask you to increase the risk until the risk>free margin, and then your account is gone.

Any margingale, inverse martingale,NO STOPLOSS martingale, whatever combination you find, is seriously flawed, and its not even a trading method.It's a gambling one.

Of course you might make it to the million before losing your account, but chances are that you wont, and you money will be gone.

The only risk management model that works is the linear one, never double lot size, always stick to a fix % of your balance, and trade that way.

Revenge trade or recovery trade will only empty your account sooner or later.

Thats all, i hope you dont lose your account with this stupid method.Good luck.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #25
  • Aug 1, 2014 1:21am Aug 1, 2014 1:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Rags we share lot of the same philosophy about trading.Green pips
Dav,for sure it is not the same thing to share an idea and/or explain it in details like this guy did.As an old armenian saying tells'' էշ նստելը մի աիբա,իչնելը երկու՛՛)) Great lecture,have not even an comment!
Thanks for sharing R2R!
Success is nothing more than a few simple disciplines, practiced every day.
  • #26
  • Aug 1, 2014 1:40am Aug 1, 2014 1:40am
Quoting Proximus
Any kind of "recovery type" system is a fallacy.It wont recover anything, it will just ask you to increase the risk until the risk>free margin, and then your account is gone. Any margingale, inverse martingale,NO STOPLOSS martingale, whatever combination you find, is seriously flawed, and its not even a trading method.It's a gambling one. Of course you might make it to the million before losing your account, but chances are that you wont, and you money will be gone. The only risk management model that works is the linear one, never double lot size,...
Like I said, I use a stop loss. Recovery works wonders for me because morons use market orders (and tight stop losses) into my limit orders when they don't realize they are selling into support or buying into resistance.

My stops are always 100s of pips away and rarely reached.

Poor UK data giving catalyst we need for 7970
(hint: data always matches the markets preferred technical stance)

I like to add very small positions every 10 pips in my favor (7930,7940,7950,7960) as it gives me further incentive to stay with the trade to target.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #27
  • Aug 1, 2014 1:55am Aug 1, 2014 1:55am
By the way martingale is when you double down (believe me I know what it is use it very effectively in blackjack, it's effective because you will often hit blackjack on a high martingale loss streak and that gives you an edge. Also you have to let win streaks run every now and then, which means double down on winners too, but I only go to about 3 before I feel the need to take the profit and restart the bet size lower)

What he was advocating in the video is instead of going full size, break down your position into 5 (I often break much more than that) and trade with the trend, you can't go wrong.

If normally you use 1 lot, then you use 0.2 and every 20 pips against you add another 0.2 until you are in your full position (from prices you never thought you would see, the FX gods have blessed you with such a deep pullback!). Martingale would be 0.2 lot then 20 pips down you got 0.4 lot, then 20 pip down you go 1.2 lot, yes this is dangerous and not what the video was talking about.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #28
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:58am Aug 1, 2014 5:58am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
will add explorer too

Hi R2R


Like the look of where this is going.

Looking forward to your explorer

Wishing you all the best

Rooi
We miss 100% of the shots we don't take
  • #29
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:06am Aug 1, 2014 6:06am
Quoting Machinator
{quote} Dav,for sure it is not the same thing to share an idea and/or explain it in details like this guy did.As an old armenian saying tells'' էշ նստելը մի աիբա,իչնելը երկու՛՛)) Great lecture,have not even an comment! Thanks for sharing R2R!
Barev Machinator
I have a journal called Davit's Confluence Trading
Where I share how I trade in detail,sharing templates,indicators and methodology,harmonics etc.You are welcome to participate.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:27am Aug 1, 2014 6:27am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} That guy is preaching an inverse-martingale method, if you didnt realized that already.At a point,sooner or later,but eventually it will wipe out your entire account. Martingale is the "double down to HELL method".Nothing good can come out of it
Hi Prox
No he hedges his position when it goes against him and exits when entire positions on both sides combined become net = profit
Sadly US based brokers don't allow hedging
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #31
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:36am Aug 1, 2014 6:36am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Prox No he hedges his position when it goes against him and exits when entire positions on both sides combined become net = profit Sadly US based brokers don't allow hedging
you can open a sub-account, transfer some money from main, do your opposite trades. little inconvenient, but works.
As Above, So Below
  • #32
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:46am Aug 1, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Genius. If only I watched this years ago. http://youtube.com/watch?v=FyAeujRwLxM stops are fine but you need to be highly confident and only use a stop on a monthly support level and make sure your target is 25x greater than your stop. iE risk 1% to make 25% (even if you must pyramid the position, you can always BE on a pullback, but if you pyramid lightly, your cost basis want change much, so only a very deep pullback could hit your BE) I'm a huge advocate of adding to winners and losers. As long as you trade near the edges with light...
Well the idea is a slightly twisted martingale...

but imagine.. as in his example, the market stays in a range for a while.. and it keep hitting the upper and lower level of the zone... everytime, we need to open a trade.. right? and how long the liquidity would last? and how about the margins? and you are paying spread on each trade... how many trades can you survive... adding on to your lot size? As proximus said... it might make you million pips.. only take it all in one flash ))) (if at all you happen to make a million...) sounds terrific idea... when you first hear it.... even I felt it, and then the next question comes... is it really that simple? there must be a catch to it... and then you think again... then only these idea of hitting the upper and lower zones multiple times, hit you anyway... and as common sense and logic would say... if it all were true.. he wouldn't be trying to sell a crappy software to totally newbie crowds in a 3 star hotel... or even lower star hotel. oops... I think it was in a college auditorium... in rio?
  • #33
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:01am Aug 1, 2014 8:01am
I saw that video months ago, I even built EA to test the idea.
The problem I ran into was that if the gap between buy and sell were too small I always ran into a range which wiped my account, while if they were too big... it took ages to close the trade and expose my account to a huge draw down only to hit a few pips after, (sometimes) weeks of waiting.
I'm not saying it does not work, there may be a correct figures for the correct pair that avoids my experiences. Let me know if you find out
  • #34
  • Aug 1, 2014 9:42am Aug 1, 2014 9:42am
Quoting Rooi
{quote} Hi R2R Like the look of where this is going. Looking forward to your explorer Wishing you all the best Rooi
Still on my iPad, its coming!

Thanks Rooi. I appreciate all the support. Even if I don't make 300,000% (I will), the main point to take away is that it's possible to win consistently! If billionaires can enter 50,000 lots and close it after 120 pips for $60 mil profit, what's stopping us? The biggest traders (think 100+ billion hedge funds) have probably a million lots on one position (built over many weeks/months/years), so every 1 pip of movement = $10 million P/L.

For now I can tell you I ran it to 130% from March 10 to May 8, had over a 10% drawdown (+100%) then ran it to +150% by June 8. I made a horrible miscalculation and got way too confident, and decided NOT to piece my trade in as lightly as I usually do. When it didn't correct I was forced to get out (no chance of trading my way out). I was going through a lot of personal issues that week and my mind was elsewhere. Went from +150% to +70% in 1 week and it was painful (despite all being profit it still hurts). I grinder slowly back to +120% by July 8. I've hit a few big ones this month and now I'm closing in on tripling my account in under 5 months (193%) with max deposit drawdown being 5%.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #35
  • Edited 10:33am Aug 1, 2014 10:23am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting vinforex7
{quote} Well the idea is a slightly twisted martingale... but imagine.. as in his example, the market stays in a range for a while.. and it keep hitting the upper and lower level of the zone... everytime, we need to open a trade.. right? and how long the liquidity would last? and how about the margins? and you are paying spread on each trade... how many trades can you survive... adding on to your lot size? As proximus said... it might make you million pips.. only take it all in one flash ))) (if at all you happen to make a million...) ...
I know which way the market is going (he doesn't). I don't advocate trading that way unless you just want consistent income (not impressive returns that will make you wealthy). Did you know if you have a big enough account and trade small enough you will never lose again? Just like no market moves up and down 50 pips for long without 100s of pip breakout, no market moves 500 pips without correction. Rarely no market even moves more than 250 pips without 100 pip correction. I'm AUDNZD we saw 400 pip move and even if you had zero clue how to trade (selling that beautiful weekly bullish reversal, are you nuts?), let's say you have $100,000 account and you suck at trading.

you sell a 0.01 lot at 1.07
then sell a 0.01 at 1.0750,
then sell a 0.02 at 1.0800
then sell a 0.04 at 1.0850
then sell a 0.08 at 1.0900
then sell a 0.16 at 1.0950
then sell a 0.32 at 1.1000
then sell a 0.64 at 1.1050


Total is 1.28 lots from average price of 1.10, which means you have a drawdown of ~$500 (0.5%) when AUDNZD reached highs. now if you waited for the correction (which I nailed with a short at 1.1038, with sell limits 1.1075) you would have profited close to $1000 (1%)! without knowing how to trade.

See I played it similar for the long side (except bigger size of course).. 3 weeks ago I bought 1.07 and 1.0650 (and would have bought lower), knowing that eventually those positions would turn into +300 pips (1.10 handle)

My only mistake was not keeping small buy stops every 10 pips higher until reaching 1.10, as was the original plan. That would have allowed me to squeeze another 10-20% from the trade. If it's going to target, and you know it wont have a deep pullback, why not stack buy/sell stops (small ones, as to not change cost basis much) all the way to target and get all you can get out of the trade?

My basic rule: add to winners when you know it will keep being a winner and add to losers when you know it will eventually be a winner
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #36
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:34am Aug 1, 2014 10:34am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Still on my iPad, its coming! Thanks Rooi. I appreciate all the support. Even if I don't make 300,000% (I will), the main point to take away is that it's possible to win consistently! If billionaires can enter 50,000 lots and close it after 120 pips for $60 mil profit, what's stopping us? The biggest traders (think 100+ billion hedge funds) have probably a million lots on one position (built over many weeks/months/years), so every 1 pip of movement = $10 million P/L. For now I can tell you I ran it to 130% from March 10 to May 8, had over...
This thing called trading is mostly about DISCIPLINE, is not it?
Good luck!
As Above, So Below
  • #37
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:55am Aug 1, 2014 11:55am
Well my TP hit. Hopefully we get a pullback or I may have to add the position back here for the long haul.
would prefer to see 7950 next week and buy from there but might not get it...

Does it get more psychological than 797979? I wish I got 6th decimal pricing.

Quoting tashkent
{quote} This thing called trading is mostly about DISCIPLINE, is not it? Good luck!
Discipline, patience, persistence, confidence, emotional stability...
If you are a master with women, you can master trading too.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #38
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:11pm Aug 1, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Well my TP hit. Hopefully we get a pullback or I may have to add the position back here for the long haul. would prefer to see 7950 next week and buy from there but might not get it... Does it get more psychological than 797979? I wish I got 6th decimal pricing. {quote} Discipline, patience, persistence, confidence, emotional stability... If you are a master with women, you can master trading too. {image}
also there with you, it is my 2 nd position, first one was a pending at .78995
really nice because it seems no one else is interested in trading this pair!!

to me itīs a great opportunity GBP runs a loooong time bullish, now EUR with a large bearish run in a short period when both start their retrace
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just do it
  • #39
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:31pm Aug 1, 2014 12:31pm
Quoting thodie
{quote} also there with you, it is my 2 nd position, first one was a pending at .78995 really nice because it seems no one else is interested in trading this pair!! to me itīs a great opportunity GBP runs a loooong time bullish, now EUR with a large bearish run in a short period when both start their retrace {image}
Nice trade! My charts are showing EUR reversal across the board but EG looked safest yes because GU is very over extended and I highly doubt they will hike rates anytime soon.

I'm long EU, EA and EJ too.

Buy all dips in EG and hold into your hats, breaking above 80 cents should be no problem in a couple weeks (or next week even), stacking limit orders into the dip as I write this.

Removed the SL on EU going to let it run.

EU/Daily
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #40
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:46pm Aug 1, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Nice trade! My charts are showing EUR reversal across the board but EG looked safest yes because GU is very over extended and I highly doubt they will hike rates anytime soon. I'm long EU, EA and EJ too. Buy all dips in EG and hold into your hats, breaking above 80 cents should be no problem in a couple weeks (or next week even), stacking limit orders into the dip as I write this. Removed the SL on EU going to let it run. EU/Daily {image}
nice ones on the EU congrats!!!!

i already exit some of my longs but also some under water...

have a nice week and enjoy your walk to wealth
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just do it
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