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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #389,801
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:07am Jul 30, 2014 3:07am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} the good print is more or les priced in. what is imp is what happens if the print is below market expectations. then eur/usd rallies and so does gbp/usd
agree..
  • #389,802
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:09am Jul 30, 2014 3:09am
Quoting cspip
trying a long here to 1.6952/55.....and short EG to 0.7898
From overnight.....
  • #389,803
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:11am Jul 30, 2014 3:11am
Lets see if we can get 1.6969............and 1.7003 today
  • #389,804
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:11am Jul 30, 2014 3:11am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} the good print is more or les priced in. what is imp is what happens if the print is below market expectations. then eur/usd rallies and so does gbp/usd
i see you have a new word ,,imp,,????? Regards
  • #389,805
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:13am Jul 30, 2014 3:13am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} the previous number was bad due to bad weather..this month..im almost definate will print a better GDP. The question is will a good print result in DOLLAR index getting strong..money may go into equities i have found that..what makes the dollar index strong is mostly uncertainy
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,806
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:14am Jul 30, 2014 3:14am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} i see you have a new word ,,imp,,????? Regards

this is the most important week for the dollar. next 3 days will set the trend for next 6 months
  • #389,807
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:18am Jul 30, 2014 3:18am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} the previous number was bad due to bad weather..this month..im almost definate will print a better GDP. The question is will a good print result in DOLLAR index getting strong..money may go into equities i have found that..what makes the dollar index strong is mostly uncertainy
a reading below expectations averages out with previous negative outcome and won't be good in terms of future projections. This should trigger EUR and GBP rallies...above expectations can still prop up all USD crosses as investors would probably opt for more risky economies i.e. emerging markets. Regarding the FOMC, I would expect a typical summer meeting, not much disclosed and more importantly it won't be followed by press conference this time.
  • #389,808
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:25am Jul 30, 2014 3:25am
gbp/cad longs added.
  • #389,809
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:25am Jul 30, 2014 3:25am
Quoting Greener
{quote} a reading below expectations averages out with previous negative outcome and won't be good in terms of future projections. This should trigger EUR and GBP rallies...above expectations can still prop up all USD crosses as investors would probably opt for more risky economies i.e. emerging markets. Regarding the FOMC, I would expect a typical summer meeting, not much disclosed and more importantly it won't be followed by press conference this time.
100% agree, there's not much to expect from FOMC... just an measured step in tappering and same statement as usual, we shouldn't get any new tips on rate hikes..
And about the GDP Numeber, keep in mind that if it's in line with expectation so around 3% that would only mean that in last 6 months US GDP almost stayed in place and that's not soo good info )
  • #389,810
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:28am Jul 30, 2014 3:28am
Quoting Greener
{quote} a reading below expectations averages out with previous negative outcome and won't be good in terms of future projections. This should trigger EUR and GBP rallies...above expectations can still prop up all USD crosses as investors would probably opt for more risky economies i.e. emerging markets. Regarding the FOMC, I would expect a typical summer meeting, not much disclosed and more importantly it won't be followed by press conference this time.
however, we are in bearish mode now. careful.
  • #389,811
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:31am Jul 30, 2014 3:31am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} 100% agree, there's not much to expect from FOMC... just an measured step in tappering and same statement as usual, we shouldn't get any new tips on rate hikes.. And about the GDP Numeber, keep in mind that if it's in line with expectation so around 3% that would only mean that in last 6 months US GDP almost stayed in place and that's not soo good info )
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,812
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:47am Jul 30, 2014 3:47am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} 100% agree, there's not much to expect from FOMC... just an measured step in tappering and same statement as usual, we shouldn't get any new tips on rate hikes.. And about the GDP Numeber, keep in mind that if it's in line with expectation so around 3% that would only mean that in last 6 months US GDP almost stayed in place and that's not soo good info )
a reading in line with expectations or slightly less I think poses some risk...if by October tapering comes to an end, not sure if US economy would make it by itself going forward. We are seeing now only the results of an extremely loose monetary policy but no major structural change to highlight growth potential. Low wages, low inflation, low interest rates will be long term imho.
  • #389,813
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:51am Jul 30, 2014 3:51am
Quoting Greener
{quote} a reading in line with expectations or slightly less I think poses some risk...if by October tapering comes to an end, not sure if US economy would make it by itself going forward. We are seeing now only the results of an extremely loose monetary policy but no major structural change to highlight growth potential. Low wages, low inflation, low interest rates will be long term imho.
Remember that there can always be the weather ! It might been too hot in Q2 ? Then it might be too cold in Q4 and soo on
But Yeah that's true that US Economy si far from paradise atm, but compare to Euro Zone for example it's fine.
  • #389,814
  • Edited 4:06am Jul 30, 2014 3:52am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting rythmrig
{quote} Depends how you look at it .....Monthly chart over all is Down but from the mid 2013 to last months candle close was up . This could be a potential reversal for a retrace down based on that rally.
I dont trade could be's I trade facts based on a rule set

thats fine what are your rules , eye balling it???? for the last 13 months the monthly chart is bullish, no prior lows taken out, as far as I am concerned there has to be a set of rules in place to determine if a specific chart is bullish or bearish, I use trendlines, has my trendline been broken in 13 months NO, was the bearish trendline broken on the way down YES then consolidation and now a specific set of rules to tell me its bullish.....

how many months in a year 12 - last 12 months bullish with no break of trendline and no prior demand being tested or broken....

Chart is bullish as per my rules.....

You can look at any chart narrow it down go back 5 years and make an assumption, thats not good enough for me

I remember not many weeks back when everyone said short short short, look what happened , it went long, completed my weekly fib near enough to the pip and now we have a retracement on the month ( 1 candle ) I would expect a retracement from the highs because my fib completed and I have rules I use for a retracement trade........ if my monthly fib plays out which would mean a break and hold of the most recent high I am targetting 192203 , maybe it will take a year to reach that level maybe two but I trade fibs and supply demand.........

lets say you trade the Daily and use the 2 higher to confirm, if the month is bearish that would mean you dont take long trades for the last year, to me that doesnt make sense, tell me your set of rules so I can have a look at what you guys are seeing.....
  • #389,815
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:55am Jul 30, 2014 3:55am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} Remember that there can always be the weather ! It might been too hot in Q2 ? Then it might be too cold in Q4 and soo on But Yeah that's true that US Economy si far from paradise atm, but compare to Euro Zone for example it's fine.
that's right. Let's not forget that Yellen is a dove after all. Like most of the women, she would like to see all little micro-details in line before any decision on interest rates....which means endless wait.
  • #389,816
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:00am Jul 30, 2014 4:00am
So nice to see some common sense posts in here regarding the truth about my beloved homeland's economy.

The weather..... still makes me.......
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,817
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:02am Jul 30, 2014 4:02am
Traders

Just to be clear

Regardless of whatever the FOMC statement says, I remain short.

HDA OUT
  • #389,818
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:04am Jul 30, 2014 4:04am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} Remember that there can always be the weather ! It might been too hot in Q2 ? Then it might be too cold in Q4 and soo on But Yeah that's true that US Economy si far from paradise atm, but compare to Euro Zone for example it's fine.
  • #389,819
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:07am Jul 30, 2014 4:07am
Quoting HDA
Traders Just to be clear Regardless of whatever the FOMC statement says, I remain short. HDA OUT
Was there ever any doubt?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,820
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:08am Jul 30, 2014 4:08am
Quoting HDA
Traders Just to be clear Regardless of whatever the FOMC statement says, I remain short. HDA OUT
Hi HDA, JUST A QUICK QUESTION,,,ARE YOU SHORT,,LOL REGARDS BILLY
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