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  • #912,841
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:35am Jul 28, 2014 9:35am
Hilarious.... this is setting up for some type of one day readjustment where this goes from 0.49% to 0.80% or something once everyone realizes the situation. Id hate to be long any carry trades that day.... which could probably be wednesday or friday
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  • #912,842
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:04am Jul 28, 2014 10:04am
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} Thank you very much for clearing that for me MaxDoom. I was under the impression that it was only based on trades within a certain amount of time.
trades like this are in there...

but more importantly this just goes to show how hard fx trading really is, this person sits on two great long EU trades that most only ever dream about, but is he a winner? no....
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  • #912,843
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:08am Jul 28, 2014 10:08am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I'm looking for shorts against 3347/55

scraping that idea...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #912,844
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:11am Jul 28, 2014 10:11am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} scraping that idea...
there is not enough volatility to justify entries, guaranteed if it gets to a significant level volatility will pick up and it will be good to enter positions, but until then....
  • #912,845
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:13am Jul 28, 2014 10:13am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} but more importantly this just goes to show how hard fx trading really is{image}
Hey Max

I concur. Trading FX (or any other instrument) is very hard. I only started to get the hang of it after 3 years and there is always more to learn, 5+ years in I still have a lot to learn and I dont expect the process of learning to stop. The margin between success and failure is small and I have found that only 1 or 2 lapses of discipline per day can be the difference between success and failure. Have a great week.
  • #912,846
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:14am Jul 28, 2014 10:14am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} trades like this are in there... but more importantly this just goes to show how hard fx trading really is, this person sits on two great long EU trades that most only ever dream about, but is he a winner? no.... {image}
He might be a winner, if he yield great positive interests
  • #912,847
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:24am Jul 28, 2014 10:24am
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} Thank you very much for clearing that for me MaxDoom. I was under the impression that it was only based on trades within a certain amount of time.
These are better
http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,848
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:53am Jul 28, 2014 10:53am
Quoting Helanka
I am in still holding a long trade which enter on 16-07-2014 at 1.3562 & there are other two long trade at 1.3491 & 1.3447 what should i do..
IF YOU BELIEVE. HOLD. I was in same situation with shorts. Chek my profile. Would make more if not jumped out
Once scalper always scalper
  • #912,849
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:00am Jul 28, 2014 11:00am
Quoting sh5467
{quote} Hey Max I concur. Trading FX (or any other instrument) is very hard. I only started to get the hang of it after 3 years and there is always more to learn, 5+ years in I still have a lot to learn and I dont expect the process of learning to stop. The margin between success and failure is small and I have found that only 1 or 2 lapses of discipline per day can be the difference between success and failure. Have a great week.
you too chap
  • #912,850
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:01am Jul 28, 2014 11:01am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} there is not enough volatility to justify entries, guaranteed if it gets to a significant level volatility will pick up and it will be good to enter positions, but until then....
indeed, and I see more favorable trades elsewhere...dont need all of them, just a few here and there...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #912,851
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:06am Jul 28, 2014 11:06am
Quoting Citiboy
Hilarious.... this is setting up for some type of one day readjustment where this goes from 0.49% to 0.80% or something once everyone realizes the situation. Id hate to be long any carry trades that day.... which could probably be wednesday or friday {image}
I agree its in for a sizeable correction higher. I forecast 0.85% by year end. to move 30bps in a day would be nearly impossible tho, that would require the first rate hike to be in 2014... which is unlikely to say the least (based on historical 2yr-FF vs months to hike relationships btw)
  • #912,852
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:40am Jul 28, 2014 11:40am
Quoting CholiPop
Note to all of us who are rather new to this. Have a look at forexfactories sentiment stats. More then 80% of the people are long. So do you really believe it will move up? Maybe for a quick flash, and strong reversal. You have many situations which can play out, but market sentiment reveals a lot.
I could almost swear most were short around 3950 also.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,853
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:45am Jul 28, 2014 11:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I could almost swear most were short around 3950 also.
I would agree, leveraged community and real money both started shorting hard in the 1.39s...

I really am not sure where this notion (something I've only ever seen on this forum) of more than 50% being long/short so the market can't move up/down etc etc... its really quite baffling.

It's as if people don't have any concept of open interest?!? really quite odd.
  • #912,854
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:47am Jul 28, 2014 11:47am
Man... I think that most retailers got trapped in their Long EU position now.
I don't think big fish gonna let those retailers out easily.
Very bad news on Pending Housing .. and only move less < 10 pips...
This EU just waiting to be dropped, will sell on a bounce of 1.344x
  • #912,855
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:55am Jul 28, 2014 11:55am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,856
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:59am Jul 28, 2014 11:59am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} I would agree, leveraged community and real money both started shorting hard in the 1.39s... I really am not sure where this notion (something I've only ever seen on this forum) of more than 50% being long/short so the market can't move up/down etc etc... its really quite baffling. It's as if people don't have any concept of open interest?!? really quite odd.
no indicators or methods are 100%. then one has to consider, some dont know how to take profit, and others dont know when its time to close a loser.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,857
  • Jul 28, 2014 11:59am Jul 28, 2014 11:59am
Quoting aarontdang
Man... I think that most retailers got trapped in their Long EU position now. I don't think big fish gonna let those retailers out easily. Very bad news on Pending Housing .. and only move less < 10 pips... This EU just waiting to be dropped, will sell on a bounce of 1.344x
Shorting 20 pips away from current bottom seems risky.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,858
  • Jul 28, 2014 12:29pm Jul 28, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Shorting 20 pips away from current bottom seems risky.
Why should it be risky? EU can easily drop another 400-500 pips before you see any kind of retracement (more than 30-50 pips). It's not more risky than any other time or place as we never know what price will do next. With proper MM you eliminate or reduce risk. You can always get in a trend, if you know how to do it wisely. I added to my shorts up here.. feels fine, but okay, i'm scaling in. But with the tempo and angle of this slow move up, this is a spot i would have shorted had i not been in already.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #912,859
  • Jul 28, 2014 12:30pm Jul 28, 2014 12:30pm
Finally my EUR/TRY short has come to a spectacular end.
The whole month of July I still had a 1 lot (100,000 Eur) short going, giving me $24+ in interest per day. Then July 18th I had to go to the hospital and couldn't follow it anymore.
Yesterday I came out and to my surprise I saw that at July 23rd my target at 2.8200 was hit and my total profit in interest and target profit was $2,996.00 on a trade that took less than $7000 margin and a total account balance in that account of $10,000.

Pretty neat right?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #912,860
  • Jul 28, 2014 12:35pm Jul 28, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} Why should it be risky? EU can easily drop another 400-500 pips before you see any kind of retracement (more than 30-50 pips). It's not more risky than any other time or place as we never know what price will do next. With proper MM you eliminate or reduce risk. You can always get in a trend, if you know how to do it wisely. I added to my shorts up here.. feels fine, but okay, i'm scaling in. But with the tempo and angle of this slow move up, this is a spot i would have shorted had i not been in already.
So you say eur can drop 500 pips and a 50 pip SL is enough for a trade like that? Thats a great R/R, did you open the trade yet?

There will be a solid retracement once 1.33xx is hit. Maybe even from here, even though I wouldn't go long now.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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