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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #389,081
  • Jul 25, 2014 7:27pm Jul 25, 2014 7:27pm
My view for next week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #389,082
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:33am Jul 26, 2014 6:33am
LOL ... seems like that BogiFX guy started to ignore and/or unsubscribe from the half forum
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #389,083
  • Jul 26, 2014 8:34am Jul 26, 2014 8:34am
Quoting Bones
Hi J its difficult to get tls to this chart ,but really I don't see either of these , {quote}
Hi Tony,

The TL / Channel is in doubt agreed. I have firmer convictions with the level of 1.6919 being a level of interest (it also calls for 69 as round numbers do enjoy being poked)

Candle and support chart

GU Weekly

Attached Image


Points of interest

  1. W28 & W29 are (if we ignore the wicks) inside down of W27 so three inside down trend reversal with W30 as confirmation -> high probability of reversal now present (+60%) if anyone cares.
  2. Its been a while since we have had three down weeks, so this is a valid signal confirmation for shorts for position traders on candle strategy
  3. GU short is not a carry trade so the m/m is worth watching as the swaps can knock profit if it does the sideways drift thing... which it often does
  4. Technical breach and signal to begin looking to short is the breach of 1.6919 and preferably 1.69

Targets on the long term side

  1. Harmonic retracement Fib 23.6% 1.6625, Fib 38.2% 1.6281 Fib 50% 1.6
  2. Support 1.626 if reached it opens swing support @ 1.572


Risks

  1. BOE governor Carney raises rates by more than 50 basis points (rate hike and market surprise is due... he said so)


Dollar support as confluence

  1. FOMC governor Yellen intends to end QE in Oct
  2. Watch for early rate hikes in the US

My trade plan

  1. I'm cancelling my TP 1.6919 holding my stop (profit lock @1.71050) I still have 50% of my initial scale in running
  2. I will short rallies on LTF 4H and rebuild this short to my risk appetite on momentum, FOMC may be useful
  3. If price trades through 1.71 I'll wait for more information

Absolute stop is 1.72 <- goes without saying


Happy hunting! Be well

  • #389,084
  • Jul 26, 2014 8:53am Jul 26, 2014 8:53am
Quoting Hickson
LOL ... seems like that BogiFX guy started to ignore and/or unsubscribe from the half forum
Hi Hickson, watch USDZAR, interest rate tightening cycle has begun on increasing inflation... Institutions are looking for another 5 year short zs $ targets at 7.60 again multi-year position trade pending on +ve swaps.... now or never will take a few weeks to establish void at 10.90 best entries short rallies near 10.65 small positions and wide stops remember this is a long hold so small positions... not a get rich scheme, just a sit around and do nothing opportunity still waiting for AU to finish dipping to add
  • #389,085
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:10am Jul 26, 2014 9:10am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Hi Tony, The TL / Channel is in doubt agreed. I have firmer convictions with the level of 1.6919 being a level of interest (it also calls for 69 as round numbers do enjoy being poked) Candle and support chart GU Weekly {image} Points of interest W28 & W29 are (if we ignore the wicks) inside down of W27 so three inside down trend reversal with W30 as confirmation -> high probability of reversal now present (+60%) if anyone cares. Its been a while since we have had three down weeks, so this is a valid signal confirmation for shorts for position...
Now folks, there's an analysis.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,086
  • Edited 10:40am Jul 26, 2014 9:25am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Now folks, there's an analysis.



Inserted Video



  • #389,087
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:25am Jul 26, 2014 9:25am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Now folks, there's an analysis.
As long as everyone numbers are close to mine i am
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #389,088
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:49am Jul 26, 2014 9:49am
Trading outlook
Wait after July 30th
If GDP comes out negative Short the rallies on GU could spike over 100pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #389,089
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:07am Jul 26, 2014 10:07am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} http://youtu.be/YUzd1YiEs_k


I don't know Jimmy. By the looks of that cover picture on the video, I'm not sure I want to hit play.... ....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,090
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:34am Jul 26, 2014 10:34am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} As long as everyone numbers are close to mine i am {image}
Hi, looks like you have lost a lot of weight on your shopping tour. The suit is still fitting though
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #389,091
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:37am Jul 26, 2014 10:37am
Quoting Davit
Trading outlook Wait after July 30th If GDP comes out negative Short the rallies on GU could spike over 100pips
Ummm... ... Honest question here Davit, Isn't that backwards?

If the GDP is negative, that hurts the dollar...no? If so, then wouldn't it be buy the dips on GU?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,092
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:41am Jul 26, 2014 10:41am
Quoting albchr
{quote} I don't know Jimmy. By the looks of that cover picture on the video, I'm not sure I want to hit play.... ....
You're safe now... I fixed it was a good pic though
  • #389,093
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:44am Jul 26, 2014 10:44am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Ummm... ... Honest question here Davit, Isn't that backwards? If the GDP is negative, that hurts the dollar...no? If so, then wouldn't it be buy the dips on GU?
I was going to ask the same question
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #389,094
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:47am Jul 26, 2014 10:47am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Ummm... ... Honest question here Davit, Isn't that backwards? If the GDP is negative, that hurts the dollar...no? If so, then wouldn't it be buy the dips on GU?
I like Selling strength. Feds going to stop QE in Oct (major game changer)hence USD is going to appreciate
That's my quarterly outlook
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #389,095
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:53am Jul 26, 2014 10:53am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Hi Tony, The TL / Channel is in doubt agreed. I have firmer convictions with the level of 1.6919 being a level of interest (it also calls for 69 as round numbers do enjoy being poked) Candle and support chart GU Weekly {image} Points of interest W28 & W29 are (if we ignore the wicks) inside down of W27 so three inside down trend reversal with W30 as confirmation -> high probability of reversal now present (+60%) if anyone cares. Its been a while since we have had three down weeks, so this is a valid signal confirmation for shorts for position...
Hi Jimmy,

Very nice analysis. I see where we have stopped on monthly. I get it. But...

And we did have a nice pattern play out.

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Chris, Yes, looking to get in. This is first level I am watching, then yes, there are more. {image}
But as for risk. What if Carney does a Carney? Anybody remember BOC?

And as for Yellen? Read this article if you have the time and then tell me she is going to raise rates? I found it very interesting.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...d-on-the-lever
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #389,096
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:02am Jul 26, 2014 11:02am
Quoting srt
{quote} Thanks. I plan on buying around .6930ish with .6913 being support so a little push lower first would be nice :-) {image}
You might want Hold on that BUY(Unless Scalping), Because I think more Down after 1.6905
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #389,097
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:03am Jul 26, 2014 11:03am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I like Selling strength. Feds going to stop QE in Oct (major game changer)hence USD is going to appreciate That's my quarterly outlook
Ok, knowing how you trade that's "kind of" what I thought.

I feel the added details in your thinking are important. I try to keep in mind that the experienced traders here are not the only ones reading these pages. Thanks for the clarification brother. ...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,098
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:28am Jul 26, 2014 11:28am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote}And as for Yellen? Read this article if you have the time and then tell me she is going to raise rates? I found it very interesting. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...d-on-the-lever {image}
Interesting indeed Scott. First, I really don't think she (or uncle Ben) actually decide on it but, that aside and assuming I'm wrong about that ....

.....Hmmmm...... ... If she were able to keep her social side separate from the country's financial stability needs side (which I've found most that fit in her class can't), she "might" advocate for a very slow, measured rise over time. But given all the above, in a nutshell? Not likely...LOL

To be fair I have to say I didn't read the entire article. But I believe enough to get the gist. As with most articles, you reach a point where the rest is just a repetitive attempt to drive the main point home.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,099
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:33am Jul 26, 2014 11:33am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} You're safe now... I fixed it was a good pic though
Ahhhh.... I went ahead and clicked play anyway. I'm a baaaaaaad boy..... Good remix by the way.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,100
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:57am Jul 26, 2014 11:57am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Jimmy, Very nice analysis. I see where we have stopped on monthly. I get it. But... {image}
I have to agree with the "but" Scott.

Although the PA structure looks very promising as of now, we can't write off the technical bull trend quite yet. In the simplest of views on the weekly and daily, for me without a clear break, test and rejection of 1.69189 (intersection of weekly TL / SR + bottom of left over demand), the technical bull trend remains intact. Reaching the 50% of the crash is very possible yet.

That's why reevaluation at the 6930/00 level is needed....for me.

Weekly
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Daily
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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