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  • #912,601
  • Jul 25, 2014 5:30pm Jul 25, 2014 5:30pm
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} I am with you man on this. I opened long (something rarely do on euro and I rarely trade euro) in the .3430 area I can see the pair falling to .3400 but that's really it. The risk/reward is solid on the long side. I will happily add at .3400 area Any one expecting serious downside from these levels is either a noob or a gambler. 2 standard deviation move almost done. Last time we had 3 standard deviations was back in 2010 Euro zone not out of the woods but definetly not in the same predicament it was in back in 2010
How many pips is equal to serious downside?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #912,602
  • Jul 25, 2014 5:33pm Jul 25, 2014 5:33pm
Don't worry bulls, worst case this goes down to 1.30 and gets rejected again.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,603
  • Jul 25, 2014 5:43pm Jul 25, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} I am with you man on this. I opened long (something rarely do on euro and I rarely trade euro) in the .3430 area I can see the pair falling to .3400 but that's really it. The risk/reward is solid on the long side. I will happily add at .3400 area Any one expecting serious downside from these levels is either a noob or a gambler. 2 standard deviation move almost done. Last time we had 3 standard deviations was back in 2010 Euro zone not out of the woods but definetly not in the same predicament it...
I AM
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #912,604
  • Jul 25, 2014 5:52pm Jul 25, 2014 5:52pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} How many pips is equal to serious downside?
I would say serious downside is the .3304 area ( i trade futures we speak in terms of ticks , so adjust a few pips for your spot fx).

Can we see it fall another 126 pips ? YES Is that a high probability event ? NO

I began the journey years ago.. .I would be selling now with new positions back then... not now.

Simple daily chart with 200SMA as the mean.

http://www.forexfactory.com/webkit-f...147/image.tiff
  • #912,605
  • Jul 25, 2014 5:55pm Jul 25, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} I would say serious downside is the .3304 area ( i trade futures we speak in terms of ticks , so adjust a few pips for your spot fx). Can we see it fall another 126 pips ? YES Is that a high probability event ? NO I began the journey years ago.. .I would be selling now with new positions back then... not now. Simple daily chart with 200SMA as the mean. {image}
The question is, is it safe to long the bottoms at these levels? YES. But is it safe to keep longs open and add to them on the way up, like during a regular trend? NOT YET.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,606
  • Jul 25, 2014 5:57pm Jul 25, 2014 5:57pm
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} I would say serious downside is the .3304 area ( i trade futures we speak in terms of ticks , so adjust a few pips for your spot fx). Can we see it fall another 126 pips ? YES Is that a high probability event ? NO I began the journey years ago.. .I would be selling now with new positions back then... not now. Simple daily chart with 200SMA as the mean. {image}
This are my thoughts


Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} I have 1.3416 then up to 1.344xx then DOWN to 1.33718
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #912,607
  • Jul 25, 2014 5:57pm Jul 25, 2014 5:57pm
Closed most of my short.
In the meantime FF lots up to 87% long!
No significant bottom has been made.
Next week's plan is to sell into any up move at any sign of weakness.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #912,608
  • Jul 25, 2014 6:01pm Jul 25, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting Endoephemera
Closed most of my short. In the meantime FF lots up to 87% long! No significant bottom has been made. Next week's plan is to sell into any up move at any sign of weakness.
FF lots don't say much, this is a better indicator:
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios
Or any other big broker. In most cases, 70-80% retailers have to be wrong, for the trend to change in their favor. Looking at the stats, if euro dropped to 1.33, it would be around 70-80% trapped in longs.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,609
  • Jul 25, 2014 6:10pm Jul 25, 2014 6:10pm
I have been a silent watcher for a long while, this looks like a nice community, so I decided to join

The EUR/USD is clearly pointing down on larger timeframes to me, on 4-hr chart, the price has moved a bit too far from long-term moving average, and it's in oversold territory, suggests that a near-term pullback is needed to power a new slide (If there's one)

Ok, long story short. I am not a position or long term trader, so I'm long from 1.3430 and targeting only 20 pips, because of the very narrow trading range that is been persistent for weeks. I do not think I can hope for more in this tight trading. If all my math and plan are correct, it should re-visit the 1.3450/60 area on Monday then I'll have a new plan.
  • #912,610
  • Jul 25, 2014 6:42pm Jul 25, 2014 6:42pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} The question is, is it safe to long the bottoms at these levels? YES. But is it safe to keep longs open and add to them on the way up, like during a regular trend? NOT YET.
OnlineAddict, another tell is in the options market. FXE (most liquid stock for euro ) has volatility in the bottom of its recent implied volatility range. Its expected to have low volatility as its tracking a currency but its low even by currency standards. Selling expensive volatility (most equities) and buy cheap volatility (almost no stock left with cheap vol) is the idea.

Long side offering best reward to risk for new positions. Not a chart trader here so i don't care about chart patterns , at order entry your facing 50/50 odds anyways no matter how many lines and arrows you draw on the chart. I have found duration beats direction - that means not getting silly with my position size so i can hold while it moves against with out any headaches.

What is the currency market telling us about the equities market? Thats the big question for me....
I remember when euro tracked SP500 almost exactly, you could hardly tell the difference between the two when looking at a chart.

The correlation has broken down allot.... Equities likely in real trouble if the correlation is to come back in line...
  • #912,611
  • Jul 25, 2014 7:30pm Jul 25, 2014 7:30pm
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} OnlineAddict, another tell is in the options market. FXE (most liquid stock for euro ) has volatility in the bottom of its recent implied volatility range. Its expected to have low volatility as its tracking a currency but its low even by currency standards. Selling expensive volatility (most equities) and buy cheap volatility (almost no stock left with cheap vol) is the idea. Long side offering best reward to risk for new positions. Not a chart trader here so i don't care about chart patterns , at order entry your facing 50/50 odds anyways...
I'm with you on buying the eur dips atm, but my target for every trade is 20-50 pips, I don't see a reason to keep longs open, yet.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,612
  • Jul 25, 2014 9:34pm Jul 25, 2014 9:34pm
Another one bites the dust...
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You reap what you sow.
  • #912,613
  • Jul 25, 2014 9:52pm Jul 25, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} OnlineAddict, another tell is in the options market. FXE (most liquid stock for euro ) has volatility in the bottom of its recent implied volatility range. Its expected to have low volatility as its tracking a currency but its low even by currency standards. Selling expensive volatility (most equities) and buy cheap volatility (almost no stock left with cheap vol) is the idea. Long side offering best reward to risk for new positions. Not a chart trader here so i don't care about chart patterns , at order entry your facing 50/50 odds anyways...
right to the point! duration is the most important factor, pick the right duration then look for direction.
  • #912,614
  • Jul 26, 2014 12:40am Jul 26, 2014 12:40am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I agree. Closing bad trades is more important than closing good trades. Every entry needs an exit plan, where the trader is ready to give up on the trade and close with a loss for more potential profit in the future.

where do u suggest to close it off?
  • #912,615
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:00am Jul 26, 2014 1:00am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} FF lots don't say much, this is a better indicator: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios Or any other big broker. In most cases, 70-80% retailers have to be wrong, for the trend to change in their favor. Looking at the stats, if euro dropped to 1.33, it would be around 70-80% trapped in longs.
not wrong...the drop is a typical that false break will occured soon. as long as the 70-80 use good MM they will be profitable trader.

check divergence...pattern etc ..

just imho...
not euphoria follower
  • #912,616
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:53am Jul 26, 2014 1:53am
Quoting saver0
When people start thinking about unloading there longs to go short.. makes me think.. is that the time when the market would flip so the same people would be stuck with opposite orders most of the time?... hmm...
Not picking on you but this attitude and perception is not the reality.
70% were short on GU and fell from 7180 to 6960
75% short on NU 8830 to 8550
Bottom line is Banks operate same principals as retail buy low sell high.Only difference is low can be very low and high can be very high.
There is no statistical edge fading "masses (retail) is profitable because often retail traders are correct.Where they lose is high leverage,over trading and poor MM and not direction.
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #912,617
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:03am Jul 26, 2014 2:03am
True talk davit, i learnt the very hard way and i am now begining to see what you are saying. But many people will still get burnt before they know
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #912,618
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:29am Jul 26, 2014 2:29am
Quoting okosodo
True talk davit, i learnt the very hard way and i am now begining to see what you are saying. But many people will still get burnt before they know
nice return
Keep doing what you are doing.Check out my journal download template indies and follow.You'll find it profitable.
Put great deal of thought into it.Trend following and Counter trading.Always wanted to develop both.Its all there.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #912,619
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:34am Jul 26, 2014 2:34am
Quoting NorthTrader
Another one bites the dust... {image}

Just for considerations:


maybe he was the one who revoked his membership.......
  • #912,620
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:43am Jul 26, 2014 2:43am
The analyst consensus is 1,29

The only way to make money on EURUSD is to go short! Poor people who are long.... as FF live accounts shows
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