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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,121
  • Jul 21, 2014 9:24pm Jul 21, 2014 9:24pm
I find it amazing that USD/JPY seems to be the only currency that always has a crowd that are steadfastly long and NEVER short. I would guess that 80% of USD/JPY traders only ever buy it. My comment means nothing I guess, just an observation. Of course sometimes longs are right, I remember I paid off half my mortgage being long USD/JPY through the late 90's when it had a massive interest rate diff as well. But since then apart from the odd time, it has become known as the "Pain Trade" for good reason.

The good thing about the formation of the last six months is you don't have to call it. For me, a call level left with my broker each side of the range and I will join it, until then it's dull as and pointless.... unless you are sitting on multi month worth of carry (with close stops).....

I think this is the end of a distribution that started at 78 and is ending here. I will simply "go with" the next directional daily bar that closes outside the range. I just have a suspicion that will be to the downside but I've been wrong once before so far this year
  • #47,122
  • Jul 21, 2014 10:33pm Jul 21, 2014 10:33pm
nice bearish pattern

sl 101,6

Venceremos
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: y1rLKte.png Size: 51 KB
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #47,123
  • Jul 21, 2014 11:57pm Jul 21, 2014 11:57pm
I'm up 25 pips on my long usd/jpy from 101.200 and I'm not letting go. Even if my position goes down 50 pips I'm still holding on to this number in the 101 area. There is no reason to be short on the yen right now. Being short when it peaked at 103 and 103.50 would have been the time to short and to get out now. The only thing usd/jpy is going to do is rise (get weaker)
  • #47,124
  • Jul 21, 2014 11:58pm Jul 21, 2014 11:58pm
this bond tapering by the US Fed Reserve will affect the yen in a few months but until then I'm long!
  • #47,125
  • Jul 22, 2014 1:35am Jul 22, 2014 1:35am
same sentiment, i am long for this pair...

Quoting yeniful
I'm up 25 pips on my long usd/jpy from 101.200 and I'm not letting go. Even if my position goes down 50 pips I'm still holding on to this number in the 101 area. There is no reason to be short on the yen right now. Being short when it peaked at 103 and 103.50 would have been the time to short and to get out now. The only thing usd/jpy is going to do is rise (get weaker)
  • #47,126
  • Jul 22, 2014 1:35am Jul 22, 2014 1:35am
Quoting yeniful
I'm up 25 pips on my long usd/jpy from 101.200 and I'm not letting go. Even if my position goes down 50 pips I'm still holding on to this number in the 101 area. There is no reason to be short on the yen right now. Being short when it peaked at 103 and 103.50 would have been the time to short and to get out now. The only thing usd/jpy is going to do is rise (get weaker)
Agreed, and I got you beat by 2 pips dude! Long from 101.18.

I am also going to start a small $1k position for someone, my plan is to buy the yen (U/J, short the yen, whatever) below 102.00, and re-evaluate in about 6-12 months from then.

Feels like I've been saying this for forever...
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  • #47,127
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:15am Jul 22, 2014 5:15am
Quoting smash1820
... Big bull moves ahead for all yen pairs, imo. I'm not a fundamentalist, but my beliefs are that the dollar (index) will continue to be driven lower, but the yen may be driven lower still, which I believe makes a reasonable case to buy U/J. Printing money is not, can not, and will never be a sustainable solution to our problems ...
There are a couple of 'fundamental' things in favour of long UJ.

- The Japanese have switched off their nuclear power generation (or are in-process) and are moving to other means, therefore their oil and gas imports will become significant. The balance of trade has already become mainly negative.

- The Japanese government is trying to reduce the unemployment level. Most countries would kill to have their current level, but they want it even lower in order to fuel the drive for some (any) inflation. As a result the Yen exchange rate has to remain attractive for businesses to want to repatriate manufacturing. I believe the BoJ will support a floor of 100 and it is easy for them to do that, they just have to print.... like the SNB....

Over the years I have realised that market sentiment is the strongest force in the market. Any significant event such as another Kobe-style earthquake, or war resuming with North Korea, and all the fundamental forces in the world will be swamped.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,128
  • Jul 22, 2014 7:05am Jul 22, 2014 7:05am
On H4, USDJPY seems to have formed a double bottom near 101.00 level but the same would be confirmed only once it decisively conquers 102.00-102.10 important resistance level.
Would continue to remain on the sideline till it either breaks below 101.00 or decisively clears 102.00 important resistance.
Attached Image
  • #47,129
  • Jul 22, 2014 8:19am Jul 22, 2014 8:19am
Yahoooo....!

Guess who didn't close his long when it was 10-pips green just after the CPI figures!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,130
  • Jul 22, 2014 9:11am Jul 22, 2014 9:11am
Back above 101.5
  • #47,131
  • Jul 22, 2014 4:59pm Jul 22, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting Exodus
Yahoooo....! Guess who didn't close his long when it was 10-pips green just after the CPI figures!
Let's see. I'm gonna guess..... you?!?

Actually I really can't tell from your tone if that is a good thing or a bad thing, lol... But I am still long too.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,132
  • Jul 22, 2014 6:19pm Jul 22, 2014 6:19pm
out of any position, UJ doesn't looks healthy at all and US10y yields < 2.5% is not a good environment for bulls. although a long term bull, I wouldn't be surprised if we see <100 levels. let's not forget that in any risk off situation there will be a carry unwind which will hurt this pair. right now it's still above the support at 101.20 which was tested many times this year but I'm not seeing very convincing bounce from there.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #47,133
  • Jul 22, 2014 8:56pm Jul 22, 2014 8:56pm
usdjpy has been ranging since February...
running out of patience...
i guess it's perfect for range traders.
  • #47,134
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:07pm Jul 22, 2014 10:07pm
hold long...long time...

Quoting wtfigo
usdjpy has been ranging since February... running out of patience... i guess it's perfect for range traders.
  • #47,135
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:48pm Jul 22, 2014 10:48pm
Range... yes... but sometimes the range trading of the short term crowd cramps the range up too tight to be worth it, then you have to look at the positioning of the multi month macro traders / funds. They are all looking at the door thinking, yup I can make it out in time... my momma always told me to leave the party at it's height.... I am bearish the USD/JPY but only for the next 400 points or so (!)... have expressed it in short EUR/JPY because I think the crosses will get hit the hardest... as always, we'll see.
  • #47,136
  • Jul 23, 2014 1:13am Jul 23, 2014 1:13am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Let's see. I'm gonna guess..... you?!? Actually I really can't tell from your tone if that is a good thing or a bad thing, lol... But I am still long too.
Yes, me. I am long ....

Quoting bikov
out of any position, UJ doesn't looks healthy at all and US10y yields < 2.5% is not a good environment for bulls. although a long term bull, I wouldn't be surprised if we see <100 levels. let's not forget that in any risk off situation there will be a carry unwind which will hurt this pair. right now it's still above the support at 101.20 which was tested many times this year but I'm not seeing very convincing bounce from there.
There is a lot of strangeness in the pairs I watch. Seems as though there is no conviction in what is happening in the world.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,137
  • Jul 23, 2014 1:20am Jul 23, 2014 1:20am
BOJ's Nakaso Says Recovery in Exports 'Sluggish'

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bojs-n...20140722-01409
  • #47,138
  • Jul 23, 2014 2:29am Jul 23, 2014 2:29am
I am still holding my short position. But it is still ranging.
  • #47,139
  • Jul 23, 2014 4:24am Jul 23, 2014 4:24am
Quoting spinozagr
nice bearish pattern sl 101,6 Venceremos {image}
Hey spino have you ever tryed to change the codes on ZUP to see some more patterns?
  • #47,140
  • Jul 23, 2014 4:27am Jul 23, 2014 4:27am
Shorting UJ because of the daily pin and the 50% pullback of pin.
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