I find it amazing that USD/JPY seems to be the only currency that always has a crowd that are steadfastly long and NEVER short. I would guess that 80% of USD/JPY traders only ever buy it. My comment means nothing I guess, just an observation. Of course sometimes longs are right, I remember I paid off half my mortgage being long USD/JPY through the late 90's when it had a massive interest rate diff as well. But since then apart from the odd time, it has become known as the "Pain Trade" for good reason.
The good thing about the formation of the last six months is you don't have to call it. For me, a call level left with my broker each side of the range and I will join it, until then it's dull as and pointless.... unless you are sitting on multi month worth of carry (with close stops).....
I think this is the end of a distribution that started at 78 and is ending here. I will simply "go with" the next directional daily bar that closes outside the range. I just have a suspicion that will be to the downside but I've been wrong once before so far this year
The good thing about the formation of the last six months is you don't have to call it. For me, a call level left with my broker each side of the range and I will join it, until then it's dull as and pointless.... unless you are sitting on multi month worth of carry (with close stops).....
I think this is the end of a distribution that started at 78 and is ending here. I will simply "go with" the next directional daily bar that closes outside the range. I just have a suspicion that will be to the downside but I've been wrong once before so far this year