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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,081
  • Jul 19, 2014 8:22am Jul 19, 2014 8:22am
Id be looking into the middle east conflict...
  • #47,082
  • Jul 19, 2014 5:54pm Jul 19, 2014 5:54pm
No one knows where any currency is going. That being said with the last year of all upside on the yen I am staying long until I see a reverse movement below 0.90 and we are long way from that.

I was long on the yen @0.85000 and exited @.880000 and then re-entered @.91000 and exited @.98000
I just wish I still had my original position because I could quit my job.
  • #47,083
  • Jul 20, 2014 8:34pm Jul 20, 2014 8:34pm
Quoting yeniful
No one knows where any currency is going. That being said with the last year of all upside on the yen I am staying long until I see a reverse movement below 0.90 and we are long way from that. I was long on the yen @0.85000 and exited @.880000 and then re-entered @.91000 and exited @.98000 I just wish I still had my original position because I could quit my job.
ugh lol that sux dude

I can totally relate to that, that's the kind of stupid stuff I do, and have done.

But don't give up, there are still big yen moves coming...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,084
  • Jul 20, 2014 8:52pm Jul 20, 2014 8:52pm
Quoting Unfortunate
I am also agree with you. Actually it went down to 101.08-10 after my short position but couldn't take profit as I was sleeping at that time. You can tell me about TP but I thought it would break the 101.15 level. Actually that was my fault. So now I also want to close it at breakeven if possible. But if it breaks the 101.15 level then it will go more down otherwise that is true from @bluetoss
You should be doing OK now on that position if you held it until now, and perhaps even a few pips of profit!

Up to you where you want to close it now at this point. Pretty soon would be a good time imho.

I'm already long from 101.18, but I'd buy more if I could.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,085
  • Jul 20, 2014 9:37pm Jul 20, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting smash1820
I guess U/J could go a little lower from here, but the dips WILL BE BOUGHT... {image}
I don't think USD/JPY is bullish right now at all. If you look at the Monthly and Weekly charts you can see it more clearly. The only XXX/JPY pairs that are really bullish right now are, NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY.

CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY might be on their way back into bullish territory but not quite yet.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #47,086
  • Jul 20, 2014 9:42pm Jul 20, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting Fx3423454
I don't think USD/JPY is bullish right now at all. If you look at the Monthly and Weekly charts you can see it more clearly. The only XXX/JPY pairs that are really bullish right now are, NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY. CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY might be on their way back into bullish territory but not quite yet.
Perhaps, and you may be right. I don't know. I could see your point of view and understand where you're coming from, but I still don't agree with it.

My gut feeling tells me that this could be a giant, MASSIVE headfake, and a change in direction is near.

Remember that the market is built and structured, IMHO, to be bottom-up, not top-down. If you rely too much on the Weekly or Monthly charts, there is still a lot of granular activity that you may be missing. The opposite can apply as well (as is generally the case for me, lol).
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,087
  • Jul 20, 2014 9:57pm Jul 20, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Perhaps, and you may be right. I don't know. I could see your point of view and understand where you're coming from, but I still don't agree with it. My gut feeling tells me that this could be a giant, MASSIVE headfake, and a change in direction is near. Remember that the market is built and structured, IMHO, to be bottom-up, not top-down. If you rely too much on the Weekly or Monthly charts, there is still a lot of granular activity that you may be missing. The opposite can apply as well (as is generally the case for me, lol).
"My gut feeling tells me that this could be a giant, MASSIVE headfake, and a change in direction is near."

I hope you are not trading with your gut feelings. I am not trying to be rude or condescending. I remember when I traded with my feelings and it was a torturous experience my friend. I sleep a lot better now.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #47,088
  • Jul 20, 2014 10:15pm Jul 20, 2014 10:15pm
Quoting Fx3423454
I hope you are not trading with your gut feelings. I am not trying to be rude or condescending. I remember when I traded with my feelings and it was a torturous experience my friend. I sleep a lot better now.
No offense taken.

Unfortunately, and I am not proud of it, but I trade with my gut a lot more often than I'd like to admit.

It's still one of the things I'm trying to work on... I do not claim to be a genius, but I am definitely not a n00b either. And I've got passion beyond anyone else... and an extremely good system... just no f*ing discipline lol

With that said, I still don't see U/J breaking 101.00.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,089
  • Jul 20, 2014 10:34pm Jul 20, 2014 10:34pm
Also remember that I said on Friday, I believe it was (you can check my previous posts if you want to... here is the post fyi pls see this post), that U/J 4H chart is going to make a push down between Sun-Mon...

So I am not one bit surprised that U/J continues to go down...

Just stupid.

But I did call this out, a few days ago, and I do still believe that it is almost, or quite possibly even right now, the time to go long, if you are not already.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,090
  • Jul 20, 2014 10:51pm Jul 20, 2014 10:51pm
its not going below 100.800 . If it was going to it would have already. This bouncing game between 101 and 102.50 for the last couple of months has made me more confident on long for yen. I wouldn't be surprised at all if usd/jpy is @ 110 in 6 months
  • #47,091
  • Jul 20, 2014 11:28pm Jul 20, 2014 11:28pm
Quoting yeniful
its not going below 100.800 . If it was going to it would have already. This bouncing game between 101 and 102.50 for the last couple of months has made me more confident on long for yen. I wouldn't be surprised at all if usd/jpy is @ 110 in 6 months
110 in 6 months is not realistic. But I 100% absolutely agree with your quote, "This bouncing game between 101 and 102.50 for the last couple of months has made me more confident on long for yen."

Perhaps we will see 110 within a year or two, but I don't know about 6 months... and this is coming from the guy, well... let's say, you can call me the ultimate "perma bull".

Ok, let me rephrase. 110 within 6 months COULD happen, but I wouldn't count on it... Good things take time
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,092
  • Edited Jul 21, 2014 12:00am Jul 20, 2014 11:46pm | Edited Jul 21, 2014 12:00am
Honestly I'm not one who is known to read articles very much, or be on top of the news, but you've all probably heard the term "perma bull" a few times and I guess I researched it a bit and this articule does a decent job of summing up why.

Another reason (in fact, my main reason) is "because I think the technicals line up", but for all you fundamental folks (unlike myself), this article might be worth a read.

http://fortune.com/2012/05/07/perma-...-the-recovery/

I would be happy to have a healthy debate as long as it remains friendly.

Also, this article does seem, imo, to have a liberal twist, but I'm actually a big fan of Fortune magazine and I could be wrong so whatever, I am just stating an observation which I find to be true. With that said, I am not a democrat, or a republican. Libertarian, in fact. But I've got an interesting perspective on things, and I want you all to know what I mean when I say "perma bull".

PS: Not to mention the fact that the article is 2 years old, and yet... we are still experiencing a modest recovery as much as I would not like to admit, so the author is still, in fact, correct. Jobs are not great, but jobs were never what drove this stock market in the first place, or $DXY or Nikkei or whatever. I really can't speak much towards the JPY economy, but I can attest towards the USD economy, and I expect the dollar to continue to be driven lower (perhaps the JPY even lower still...), global inflation to rise, and gold to gain...

And Yes, you may also call me a gold bug.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,093
  • Jul 21, 2014 12:47am Jul 21, 2014 12:47am
Ummm.... I think it's safe to say, U/J has found support???

around .18-20, and .22ish.
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  • #47,094
  • Jul 21, 2014 1:07am Jul 21, 2014 1:07am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} 110 in 6 months is not realistic. ... Ok, let me rephrase. 110 within 6 months COULD happen, but I wouldn't count on it... Good things take time
October falls within the next 6 months. That is when Kuroda et al will address their economic issues, but that does not mean they will print......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,095
  • Jul 21, 2014 1:10am Jul 21, 2014 1:10am
Quoting Unfortunate
{quote} I am also agree with you. Actually it went down to 101.08-10 after my short position but couldn't take profit as I was sleeping at that time. You can tell me about TP but I thought it would break the 101.15 level. Actually that was my fault. So now I also want to close it at breakeven if possible. But if it breaks the 101.15 level then it will go more down otherwise that is true from @bluetoss
.....you still have not addressed your belief in which way UJ is going to move.

If you believe that you are wrong with your short position why not put a close order at BE+2 or something?
That would have engaged whilst you were asleep.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,096
  • Jul 21, 2014 6:00am Jul 21, 2014 6:00am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} You should be doing OK now on that position if you held it until now, and perhaps even a few pips of profit! Up to you where you want to close it now at this point. Pretty soon would be a good time imho. I'm already long from 101.18, but I'd buy more if I could.
Yes, I am also thinking for going to a long position around 101.10 but if it breaks this I think it may go 100.80 level.
  • #47,097
  • Jul 21, 2014 6:05am Jul 21, 2014 6:05am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} .....you still have not addressed your belief in which way UJ is going to move. If you believe that you are wrong with your short position why not put a close order at BE+2 or something? That would have engaged whilst you were asleep.....
Actually I am an intraday trader not a long time trader like you. I think if it can't break 101.45 level in the upside then it may range within the 101.15 to 101.45. on the other hand it it breaks in the below side then it may go to 100.80 level. That's why I may go for hedging for now until the break in either side.
  • #47,098
  • Jul 21, 2014 7:41am Jul 21, 2014 7:41am
Quoting Unfortunate
{quote} Actually I am an intraday trader not a long time trader like you. I think if it can't break 101.45 level in the upside then it may range within the 101.15 to 101.45. on the other hand it it breaks in the below side then it may go to 100.80 level. That's why I may go for hedging for now until the break in either side.
Good enuff.

This is a very tight range at the moment, it has to break somewhere.
Price has been compressing down to current level since January.
I have a trendline limiting the upside currently at 102.65 - which also happens to be the top of the main channel.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,099
  • Jul 21, 2014 8:17am Jul 21, 2014 8:17am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Good enuff. This is a very tight range at the moment, it has to break somewhere. Price has been compressing down to current level since January. I have a trendline limiting the upside currently at 102.65 - which also happens to be the top of the main channel.
Look at these long term charts then you can understand the downside turn. Here are two charts one is from daily and the other is monthly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly.jpg Size: 216 KB
  • #47,100
  • Jul 21, 2014 8:40am Jul 21, 2014 8:40am
Quoting Unfortunate
{quote} Look at these long term charts then you can understand the downside turn. Here are two charts one is from daily and the other is monthly. {image} {image}
That is an interesting monthly chart. It says that 96 is a real possibility if 100.75 gives way.
Here is how my daily is drawn, it is interesting to see where the SR lines fall on a monthly chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20140721_daily_USD_JPY.png Size: 40 KB
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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