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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #387,381
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:23pm Jul 15, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} GM, I stagger trades in areas with high probability. Not Martingale. Let us let it be. Each to his own. The fact that you post your charts with trade entries are enough for me to respect you fully. All the best
Didn't direct my comments specifically at you or anyone specific.

Any trade that is negative p&l and a new position in the same direction is added
is MARTINGALE by definition. There is no two ways about it.

Some call it Martingale others Scaling in yet others call it managing position yet others doubling down or averaging down....
whatever it's called....bottom line it's all a losing proposition.

btw this is a forum...a forum is a place for discussion not to earn respect or to be popular.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #387,382
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:23pm Jul 15, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} hi TauTrader, sorry for the late response, i was busy with dow-scalping. correct me if i´m wrong: this figure shows 13 buys with a current result of -3208. looks like averaging, not Martingale - but it´s only a little bit better technique in my eyes. not: "if in shit, double it" but "if in shit, increasing it". i prefer: "if in shit, closing it"
Sir,

thank you for your response.

Closed in profit. I do average - correct.

Regards
  • #387,383
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:26pm Jul 15, 2014 3:26pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} I mean when noobs try their hand at this is one thing, they're prolly smart enough to realize in time that - as you correctly say martingale - is a loser's game... But guys with years of trading experience doing this kinda nonsense.....
yes. probability theory shows that martingale is not a good thing when trying to make profit. expectation value is the more negative the longer it is used.
even albert einstein defined it for gambling roulette with an expectation value of zero, he never used it i think. "Gott würfelt nicht!"
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #387,384
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:27pm Jul 15, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Didn't direct my comments specifically at you or anyone specific. Any trade that is negative p&l and a new position in the same direction is added is MARTINGALE. There is no two ways about it. Some call it Martingale others Scaling in yet others call it managing position.... bottom line it's a losing proposition. btw this is a forum...a forum is place for discussion not to earn respect or to be popular.
Point made. Point taken.

Fair enough. BTW - awesome long this morning. Well done.

Regards
  • #387,385
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:34pm Jul 15, 2014 3:34pm
170.0X was so close today. hats off to the bulls.
  • #387,386
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:41pm Jul 15, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} yes. probability theory shows that martingale is not a good thing when trying to make profit. expectation value is the more negative the longer it is used. even albert einstein defined it for gambling roulette with an expectation value of zero, he never used it i think. "Gott würfelt nicht!"
in fact , whole probability theory came about because of scientists/gamblers like Pascale, Descarte, Bernoullie getting to the bottom of this nonsensical technique
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #387,387
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:48pm Jul 15, 2014 3:48pm
Good day,

GU 1hr - short scalp on the charts. High probability.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 66 KB
  • #387,388
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:51pm Jul 15, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} in fact , whole probability theory came about because of scientists/gamblers like Pascale, Descarte, Bernoullie
right you are.
if you refer to the lemma of ito, each ito-integral is a martingale.
if you refer to history of gambling-systems, the easiest way of martingale is doubling.
non the less, all of this is jouga a la martegalo
btw, nice conversation
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #387,389
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:58pm Jul 15, 2014 3:58pm
Got to love the back and forth the markets can cause
THIS IS SPARTA!
  • #387,390
  • Jul 15, 2014 4:17pm Jul 15, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} right you are. if you refer to the lemma of ito, each ito-integral is a martingale. if you refer to history of gambling-systems, the easiest way of martingale is doubling. non the less, all of this is jouga a la martegalo btw, nice conversation

Q . E . D .

Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #387,391
  • Jul 15, 2014 4:48pm Jul 15, 2014 4:48pm
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} D1 GMT+3 Buy limit triggered, buy stop left .7176. Invalidation unchanged, if price could close under ~7037... Good luck! {image}
GU D1 GMT+3

Buy stop triggered too.
Bullish enguilfing helps bulls to break ~7161 to comfirm the trend again!
Another buy limit .7113, buy stop .7182, invalidation remain.
Targetting ~7268...

Good luck!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmicrodaily.png Size: 52 KB
Anything is math!
  • #387,392
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:14pm Jul 15, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Good day sir, Not concerned about the PA response at these levels or the type of news associated with the PA response. I am concerned about granny Yellen and what she may say but I think she will begin to comment in an hawkish fashion from now till Oct) Can I teach a bit? No offense to anyone.... Why am I short? I trade Daily and Weekly charts.... from time to time I post fast and intraday charts (especially when I'm looking to enter a position trade don't follow these calls of mine I'm a position trader / EOD end of day trader and so my...
Holding short 2 positions...
Attached Image
  • #387,393
  • Edited 5:30pm Jul 15, 2014 5:15pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Didn't direct my comments specifically at you or anyone specific. Any trade that is negative p&l and a new position in the same direction is added is MARTINGALE by definition. There is no two ways about it. Some call it Martingale others Scaling in yet others call it managing position yet others doubling down or averaging down.... whatever it's called....bottom line it's all a losing proposition. btw this is a forum...a forum is a place for discussion not to earn respect or to be popular.
Hi GM
I disagree there is a huge deference scaling in then martingale.In theory Martingale is doubling up until win and you correctly stated you can get busted with huge losses.
Scaling in what I do is predetermined lot and $$ allocated for that trade hence its regular order with SL only SL is pretty wide based on $$ allocated for trade
Let me illustrate from my trading
Short GU $500 budget
Each lot .50 that equals to 1000pips
As long as $500 is not reached the order of entries or number of lots is not important.Its not important if previous orders were red as long as original fundamentals for the trade is still valid.
Its trading style different approach then commonly practiced.Most place SL 20-30pips which get taken out regularly even if you got direction right...lose 4x30pips then you got pretty big hole to get out, on the other hand I could be in profit since I did not place hard SL and price spiked up then down on my direction.
Its pretty complicated what I do but trust me its not martingale.
One of the best profitable systems Turtle trading often had DD over 30%...and that's conventional trend following.Had they taken every red order as loss over 30-50pips they would of not made any profits.
http://www.attaincapital.com/img/new...20130409_2.png
http://www.attaincapital.com/img/new...20130409_3.png

Reason I posted these graphs to show that DD is not unnatural in trading and one should not freak out on every little red order.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #387,394
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:19pm Jul 15, 2014 5:19pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi GM I disagree there is a huge deference scaling in then martingale.In theory Martingale is doubling up until win and you correctly stated you can get busted with huge losses. Scaling in what I do is predetermined lot and $$ allocated for that trade hence its regular order with SL only SL is pretty wide based on $$ allocated for trade Let me illustrate from my trading Short GU $500 budget Each lot .50 that equals to 1000pips As long as $500 is not reached the order of entries or number of lots is not important.Its not important if previous...
Fact... averaging in + increase profit
Average down = increased loss

Always add to a winning trade / never (never ever) add to a losing trade....

Martingale = account killer....

but what do I know

Trade safe...
  • #387,395
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:25pm Jul 15, 2014 5:25pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} you can really only do this after a big move,, its just scalping back to emas is what i call it , best on 4 hour chart then depended on eams that one users
Got my head shoved up my a$$

S/0 at 1300

bitch got me...

- 1% acc

Attached Image
  • #387,396
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:32pm Jul 15, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Got my head shoved up my a$$ S/0 at 1300 bitch got me... - 1% acc {image}
i know i have 3 win 2 losing at this time but not reached a balance to release the trades without total overall lose lets just say were buying to stock the cupboard lol gl jim,,,,,depends how long you can hold them ??
  • #387,397
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:34pm Jul 15, 2014 5:34pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Got my head shoved up my a$$ S/0 at 1300 bitch got me... - 1% acc {image}
i just posted in gold , i said last week 1292 was buy area did you not pp on the trade ??
  • #387,398
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:35pm Jul 15, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} i know i have 3 win 2 losing at this time but not reached a balance to release the trades without total overall lose lets just say were buying to stock the cupboard lol gl jim,,,,,depends how long you can hold them ??
I have traders grip.... I can hold long...
  • #387,399
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:36pm Jul 15, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Got my head shoved up my a$$ S/0 at 1300 bitch got me... - 1% acc {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold15.png Size: 106 KB
in at the bottom to 1400 ??? lol
  • #387,400
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:36pm Jul 15, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} i just posted in gold , i said last week 1292 was buy area did you not pp on the trade ??
Nope went in hammer and tongs... got stopped the same way
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