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  • #909,061
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:30am Jul 8, 2014 6:30am
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} I want your drugs. I want your drugs so much I canīt believe how much I want them



Post of the day...
  • #909,062
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:32am Jul 8, 2014 6:32am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I haven't misinterpret anything really, A) Correct me if i'm wrong, real GDP in USA / Q1 2014 wouldn't be = -4.8% (-2.8% - 2.00%) ?! While Euro would have for the same period -0.3% ?! And UK would have a positive REAL GDP growth in positive percentage?! B) I didn't say, USA didn't have REAL growth for the last 20 years - i said slightly positive and on average near or slightly above the zero. If you compare USA & UK 's currency and Macro economic concept between USA & UK, it would explain why the Sterling is almost 1.7 times the value of...
A) the -2.8% is real gdp, so its not -4.8% because the way its calculated is chain weighted.

B) I don't want to appear rude in anyway, but that is plain wrong. Those relative GDPs mean nothing with regard to the 1.7x ratio between $ and Ģ

What those charts basically show is the interest rate differential, which yes, is very important. and a major reason as to why the GBP is ~1.7.

C) seriously this is not how QE / money "printing" works... I suppose you think QE leads to hyperinflation... it doesn't.



I would like to elaborate on the original point however, you stated that if/when the US economy recovers the USD will drop

"I'm counting on US to come back growth yes, but that will weaken the dollar even more ..."

What this chart shows is basically the relative performance of the UK and US (as that is apparently our main example here, which is fine)

As the UK economy outperforms the US, the purple line rises, and guess what... the GBPUSD rises too!

Now imagine the US economy recovers and starts to outperform the UK (doesnt matter if UK or Canada or Austrailia or europe or anywhere, same idea)

The purple line goes down... And so will the GBPUSD (if the GBPUSD drops, that means the USD rises btw)

Pretty much back to the main point. If the US economy grows, with low inflation, the USD WILL rise. There is no-one in the world apart from you that thinks otherwise...

The thing is, the US hasn't grown, and inflation is rising. hence the USD remains weak. simple.

EDIT* trust me I don't want to sound rude, and you come up with nice ideas. I have to explain stuff like this to clients all the time, so no hard feelings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP vs interest.png Size: 190 KB
  • #909,063
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:40am Jul 8, 2014 6:40am
AU D1

dollar dump pushing Aussie into sell-zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud1.PNG Size: 40 KB
  • #909,064
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:46am Jul 8, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} the interest rate differential
I understand,

So, If Europe start hiking rates first - your entire scenario collapses?!

Quoting Aws1962
{quote} EDIT* trust me I don't want to sound rude, and you come up with nice ideas. I have to explain stuff like this to clients all the time, so no hard feelings {image}
No hard feelings, and i don't think u come off rude - but i have been reading about the interest rate differential since early 2014 ... i'm aware of the argument, but i honestly think easier said than done!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,065
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:48am Jul 8, 2014 6:48am
Quoting chazzle
AU D1 dollar dump pushing Aussie into sell-zone {image}
I'm short them here bro at 9397, risking 10...

edit...been short for three hours..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #909,066
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:53am Jul 8, 2014 6:53am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I'm short them here bro at 9397, risking 10...
I've got a spot trade 9400 sl 9411 and a binary paying out sub 9400 expiring tomorrow at LO - gl to us, eh? China CPI as a possible catalyst, hopium the drug of choice
  • #909,067
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:56am Jul 8, 2014 6:56am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} I've got a spot trade 9400 sl 9411 and a binary paying out sub 9400 expiring tomorrow at LO - gl to us, eh? China CPI as a possible catalyst, hopium the drug of choice
indeed, gl to us...

edit, nice spinner last hour....lets see if it turns into something...

editx2, need to take out 9378 me thinks to turn into anything meaningful...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #909,068
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:58am Jul 8, 2014 6:58am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I understand, So, If Europe start hiking rates first - your entire scenario collapses?! {quote} No hard feelings, and i don't think u come off rude - but i have been reading about the interest rate differential since early 2014 ... i'm aware of the argument, but i honestly think easier said than done!
yes, if the ECB were to hike rates then I'd be completely wrong. But I don't think it is very likely.

Chart shows the 1y interest rates 1y forward from now... EUR rates (green) heading lower each day as the ECB eases. GBP higher as economy outperforms and the USD rates in the middle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1y1y.png Size: 204 KB
  • #909,069
  • Jul 8, 2014 7:00am Jul 8, 2014 7:00am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} tx PTL, still some 70 to go, but finally getting some breathing room
I have some support at 101.58/64, where I was going to try some longs, but I think I'll pass now...I prefer shorts against 102.00/03 mostly...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #909,070
  • Jul 8, 2014 7:06am Jul 8, 2014 7:06am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} indeed, gl to us... edit, nice spinner last hour....lets see if it turns into something... editx2, need to take out 9378 me thinks to turn into anything meaningful...
moved my sl to 418 - above my marked zone - now walking away , catch you later bud
  • #909,071
  • Jul 8, 2014 7:10am Jul 8, 2014 7:10am
Morning all ........USA looks to have started selling..........5 min PA is looking like it will push down again.
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #909,072
  • Jul 8, 2014 7:14am Jul 8, 2014 7:14am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} yes, if the ECB were to hike rates then I'd be completely wrong. But I don't think it is very likely.
Well, if you plan to stay alive in the next 12 months - we will see what happens?! ... its crazy times anyway, and crazy things do happen
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,073
  • Jul 8, 2014 7:22am Jul 8, 2014 7:22am
It looks like a nice buy here, i'm giving it a try ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,074
  • Jul 8, 2014 7:24am Jul 8, 2014 7:24am
dollar ready for some pullback higher looks like
http://prntscr.com/40l45p

GU might test bottom?
http://prntscr.com/40l60v
  • #909,075
  • Edited 8:32am Jul 8, 2014 8:22am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i have a 9499 target on the aud.. it should weaken after, the problem is, how long after? there is a norm for 1.01xxx ... i just dont see it.. anyway whenever is drops a .82xx or .83xxxx target is valid.. i am too lazy to figure it out again atm
i was away from charts for a while. au finally hit the target last week... the attraction to .83 is one to watch for. the roo/kiwi may be a good one if one thinks kiwi will go higher. kiwi is more agricultural based. 9415/16 should have some R. in the st day.. another shot at 9499 and fail may trigger another way to 9115.. the candle for 83 was already lit. in it 1.01 is still possible.. it hasn't had much retrace since drop. 9499 may have been a good place to look..

gu 7331/39 is where i want to short if it makes it. i will look for a reason.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,076
  • Jul 8, 2014 8:31am Jul 8, 2014 8:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i was away from charts for a while. au finally hit the target last week... the attraction to .83 is one to watch for. the roo/kiwi may be a good one if one thinks kiwi will go higher. kiwi is more agricultural based. 9415/16 should have some R. in the st day.. another shot at 9499 and fail may trigger another way to 9115.. the candle for 83 was already lit. in it 1.01 is still possible.. it hasn't had much retrace since drop. 9499 may have been a good place to look..
what's ROO Gator?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #909,077
  • Jul 8, 2014 8:32am Jul 8, 2014 8:32am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} what's ROO Gator?
AUD/USD

Opps sorry. AUD/NZD

AUD.....
  • #909,078
  • Jul 8, 2014 8:36am Jul 8, 2014 8:36am
Quoting neil324
{quote} AUD/USD Opps sorry. AUD/NZD
tx neil what does ROO stand for?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #909,079
  • Jul 8, 2014 8:36am Jul 8, 2014 8:36am
Quoting neil324
{quote} AUD/USD Opps sorry. AUD/NZD


That really tickled me for no reason.

Roo = Kangaroo for those uninitiated in antipodean speak.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #909,080
  • Jul 8, 2014 8:40am Jul 8, 2014 8:40am
uj finally dropping some today
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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