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  • #909,041
  • Jul 8, 2014 3:57am Jul 8, 2014 3:57am
Quoting math_GB
{quote} Ooowww very bearish news Morning mate... Just took a long here @1.3588, my wishful thinking TP @1.3640, the reality @1.3615
If 4H close - in 4 minutes - above 1.36021, it will be a happy day for Bulls...
  • #909,042
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:00am Jul 8, 2014 4:00am
I am out. Good luck trading this "V".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #909,043
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:11am Jul 8, 2014 4:11am
Quoting TudorJonesJR
Eur is broke resistance line & ma on 30 min and wants to move higher. {image}
Posted a bit to early (still sleepy ). 30 min bar closed below resistance, so nothing decided yet.
  • #909,044
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:15am Jul 8, 2014 4:15am
EURUSD initially fell during the session yesterday, but found enough support below the 1.36 level in order to continue going higher. This pair formed a very bullish hammer closing near the highs for the day, is expected that it will continue to move higher and head towards the 1.37 handle.

The 1.37 level has in fact been very solid resistance, and as a result EURUSD may simply bounce from there again.
Want to learn more: HTO Trading
  • #909,045
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:17am Jul 8, 2014 4:17am
Interesting EURUSD piece from UBS yesterday, worth a read I would say regardless of your opinions of banks.

(anyone want access to this stuff, just msg me and I'll put you on my mailing list)
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf UBS_EURUSD.pdf   193 KB | 390 downloads
  • #909,046
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:47am Jul 8, 2014 4:47am
Quoting Aws1962
Interesting EURUSD piece from UBS yesterday, worth a read I would say regardless of your opinions of banks. (anyone want access to this stuff, just msg me and I'll put you on my mailing list) {image}
Laughable
* If anyone talks about an appreciating US Dollar, based on growth and lower inflation - either he is a moron or playing his role pretty well ...

Quote
.....After all, countries with superior growth, increasingly positive interest differentials and the prospects for tighter monetary policies are supposed to enjoy appreciating currencies
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,047
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:51am Jul 8, 2014 4:51am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Laughable * If anyone talks about an appreciating US Dollar, based on growth and lower inflation - either he is a moron or playing his role pretty well ... {quote}
I dont get what you mean?

lower inflation boosts real yields, and combined with stronger growth, there would likely be upward pressures on domestic nominal interest rates. These are clearly bullish factors for a currency...

Do you not think that growth will come, or do you not think it will result in a stronger USD?
  • #909,048
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:01am Jul 8, 2014 5:01am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Laughable * If anyone talks about an appreciating US Dollar, based on growth and lower inflation - either he is a moron or playing his role pretty well ... {quote}
Well i dont know what currency are they mentioning there but this would hold true for CNY. Dollar is neither currency of strong growth, nor low inflation nor is appretiating against most g10 currencies, but CNY does fit in that cathegory.

Meanwhile EU h1 looks like just sealed the deal for bottom test:
http://prntscr.com/40k619

Took shorts splited across supply and one on demand:
http://prntscr.com/40k6on
  • #909,049
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:02am Jul 8, 2014 5:02am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} sold 102.20 SL 102.35 so fair chance getting there....
stop @ BE, UJ that is
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #909,050
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:06am Jul 8, 2014 5:06am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} I dont get what you mean? lower inflation boosts real yields, and combined with stronger growth, there would likely be upward pressures on domestic nominal interest rates. These are clearly bullish factors for a currency... Do you not think that growth will come, or do you not think it will result in a stronger USD?
I'm counting on US to come back growth yes, but that will weaken the dollar even more ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,051
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:10am Jul 8, 2014 5:10am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I'm counting on US to come back growth yes, but that will weaken the dollar even more ...
Care to explain?
  • #909,052
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:25am Jul 8, 2014 5:25am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} stop @ BE, UJ that is
nice...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #909,053
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:29am Jul 8, 2014 5:29am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} nice...
tx PTL, still some 70 to go, but finally getting some breathing room
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #909,054
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:35am Jul 8, 2014 5:35am
I'm short. I'm so short I can't believe how short I am.
80% of equity at 1.3602 Looking for 1.352. Stop 1.3607

I'm going to make so much money I can't believe how much money I'm going to make.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #909,055
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:37am Jul 8, 2014 5:37am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} Care to explain?
Sure,

The reason Sterling is rising is not simply because of growth, but positive real growth ( Nominal GDP - inflation = positive percentage ) This mean that the economy is growing in real terms, not printing money. So, as long as they maintain this positive percentage, Sterling should appreciate ... with the Dollars, it's far more complicated!

A) They don't have real growth, in fact USA for the last 20 years suffer from high levels of inflation. So, real growth is slightly positive or most of times near zero levels.
B) The amount of Dollars was printed since 2008 is approximately 160% of the amount of Dollars in circulation. This money is sleeping on the Federal reserve balance sheets, and they need growth and GDP to start moving - so they can inject it into the economy one more time. So, even if USA print 5% per quarter GDP, it will take them approximately 10 - 15 years to consume the QE 1, QE2 & QE3 into circulation.
C) Over the last 40 years of crisis, when you expect the world economy to be recoverying - the Dollar is actually sold, not bought.

* According to UBS, you should have been selling the Dollar during 2008 / 2009 / 2010 ( Negative growth) and buying it back 2011 / 2012 /2013 ( Positive growth) Which on the Dollar index, is a disaster because the Dollar index - blue line - topped in 2009
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD-DXY-GDP.PNG Size: 153 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,056
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:49am Jul 8, 2014 5:49am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Sure, The reason Sterling is rising is not simply because of growth, but positive real growth ( Nominal GDP - inflation = positive percentage ) This mean that the economy is growing in real terms, not printing money. So, as long as they maintain this positive percentage, Sterling should appreciate ... with the Dollars, it's far more complicated! A) They don't have real growth, in fact USA for the last 20 years suffer from high levels of inflation. So, real growth is slightly positive or most of times near zero levels. B) The amount of Dollars...
having read over that... I feel you have misinterpreted UBS' report.

A) GDP is chain weighted (so whenever we see a GDP print it is a real GDP print...), the US has had real growth over the past 20 years.

B) common misconception regarding QE / USD supply. They are not in circulation, hence are not in active supply, hence do not affect the USD meaningfully... the only impact is from speculators reacting to it...

C) This is true... when risk is on, the USD is sold as implied vols are dampened and carry is demanded. But those are nothing like what we are about to go through. It is all about differentials. comparing the 1970's to today is just silly, completely different market structures, especially in FX.

and according to UBS, they don't suggest selling USD in 08/09/10 and buying in 11/12/13. You have misinterpreted the report...

hope this clears it up somewhat
  • #909,057
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:51am Jul 8, 2014 5:51am
EURUSD trapped in a tight range after holding a key support but will it last?

See my daily forex trading outlook

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  • #909,058
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:11am Jul 8, 2014 6:11am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} having read over that... I feel you have misinterpreted UBS' report. A) GDP is chain weighted (so whenever we see a GDP print it is a real GDP print...), the US has had real growth over the past 20 years. B) common misconception regarding QE / USD supply. They are not in circulation, hence are not in active supply, hence do not affect the USD meaningfully... the only impact is from speculators reacting to it... C) This is true... when risk is on, the USD is sold as implied vols are dampened and carry is demanded. But those are nothing like...
I haven't misinterpret anything really,

A) Correct me if i'm wrong, real GDP in USA / Q1 2014 wouldn't be = -4.8% (-2.8% - 2.00%) ?! While Euro would have for the same period -0.3% ?! And UK would have a positive REAL GDP growth in positive percentage?!

B) I didn't say, USA didn't have REAL growth for the last 20 years - i said slightly positive and on average near or slightly above the zero. If you compare USA & UK 's currency and Macro economic concept between USA & UK, it would explain why the Sterling is almost 1.7 times the value of one Dollar ...

first one is USA GDP / USA inflation rate for the last 10 years,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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the second UK GDP/ UK inflation rate ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UK-GDP-CPI.PNG Size: 145 KB


C) Unless, the USA Federal reserve will hire a mythical creature to consume the money sleeping in the federal reserve, these Dollars will be introduced into circulation one day or another. Because it represent assets was bought / sold into the real economy, unless of course the Federal reserve was buying hot air, in this case, the mythical creature won't be needed ... due to the fact, thin air can evaporate easily!

D) If you read carefully, this is exactly the Dollar argument - which mean you would have sold the bottom on the Dollar index back at 2008 and bought the top in 2011
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,059
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:16am Jul 8, 2014 6:16am
Quoting Endoephemera
I'm short. I'm so short I can't believe how short I am. 80% of equity at 1.3602 Looking for 1.352. Stop 1.3607 I'm going to make so much money I can't believe how much money I'm going to make.
I want your drugs. I want your drugs so much I canīt believe how much I want them
  • #909,060
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:16am Jul 8, 2014 6:16am
Retest of resistance line, let see how long we will stay in this channel and where it breaks up or down.
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