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EUR/CHF

  • #11,941
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:29pm Jul 3, 2014 5:29pm
Quoting mamalujo
{quote} u think its gonna have an impact on EC?
anything risk related seems to have an impact on EC these days
  • #11,942
  • Jul 5, 2014 5:46pm Jul 5, 2014 5:46pm
Quoting enivid
Longing EUR/USD and USD/CHF at the same time is the same as longing EUR/CHF.
//---

hey enivid...... hope all is well with yall over there.....

i've been studying your post above for some time now..... even though math/algerbra is a strong suit of mine, i still in no way can make the 'same as' work out.... if you have the time could you point out what i'm missing.....

the chart below is just an ea i wrote to show the values iopen-iclose for the eurusd, usdchf, and eurchf... the total colum is the eurusd+usdchf.... the right hand columns are for adjusting the lot size, such as 1.2 chf that some mentioned......

being long the eurusd and usdchf does not appear to be the same as being long the eurchf..... there was no way i could make it so, even by varying the lot sizes.....

what am i missing...... if ya have the time, if not i understand...... yall take care over there......h

//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: enivid.png Size: 46 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #11,943
  • Jul 5, 2014 8:28pm Jul 5, 2014 8:28pm
Of course it is the same... you are left with eur long and chf short. If you have same notional eur value on eurusd and usdchf


We just cant argue with that
  • #11,944
  • Jul 6, 2014 3:59am Jul 6, 2014 3:59am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //--- hey enivid...... hope all is well with yall over there..... i've been studying your post above for some time now..... even though math/algerbra is a strong suit of mine, i still in no way can make the 'same as' work out.... if you have the time could you point out what i'm missing..... the chart below is just an ea i wrote to show the values iopen-iclose for the eurusd, usdchf, and eurchf... the total colum is the eurusd+usdchf.... the right hand columns are for adjusting the lot size, such as 1.2 chf that some mentioned...... being...
Hey H,

I think what he meant was the pips difference (or total net pip value in $ with equal lot size) from long EUR/USD and USD/CHF = long EUR/CHF assuming the spreads of each instrument is 0.

EUR/USD x USD/CHF = EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF ÷ USD/CHF = EUR/USD
EUR/USD ÷ EUR/CHF = USD/CHF

But I agree there's no point other than to hedge EUR/USD long with USD/CHF long as both are inversely correlated.
  • #11,945
  • Jul 6, 2014 8:15am Jul 6, 2014 8:15am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Hey H, I think what he meant was the pips difference (or total net pip value in $ with equal lot size) from long EUR/USD and USD/CHF = long EUR/CHF assuming the spreads of each instrument is 0. EUR/USD x USD/CHF = EUR/CHF EUR/CHF ÷ USD/CHF = EUR/USD EUR/USD ÷ EUR/CHF = USD/CHF But I agree there's no point other than to hedge EUR/USD long with USD/CHF long as both are inversely correlated.
//---

hey ken.....enivid is pretty smart when it comes these little seemingly simple but actually quite complex deals.... surely, i'm makin some small error that is having a large impact..... below is the ea with my simple math.... unless you can force a tick it will not work till market opens.....

EUR/USD x USD/CHF = EUR/CHF // yes, if we substitute in the current prices for those ratios the results are equal to within +/- 1 pip.....

but there has yet to be a way for me to get , someone being long the eurusd and long the usdchf to be equal to someone being long the eurchf.....

take any day, subtract the close from the open, iclose-iopen, and look at the pips difference..... no matter how i have manipulated the values, including lot size, it still does not come out =.......h
//---
//----

hedging is something i rarely talk about because my views differ so much than virtually everyones..... if there are any new traders that are investigating hedging in any manner for any reason, please keep in mind something ken and i have learned, correlations are finicky at best.....

it is possible for both the eur/usd and the usdchf to rise.... along with the eur/chf....

it is possible for both the eur/usd and the usd/chf to fall.... along with the eur/chf.....

it is possible for the eur/usd and usd/chf to move in opposite directions....

and the eur/chf close where it opened.....

and that's as far as i will venture out, on the subject of hedging.....h

//----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: balance of trades.png Size: 40 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 balance of trades.mq4   5 KB | 350 downloads
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #11,946
  • Jul 6, 2014 11:24am Jul 6, 2014 11:24am
Quoting hayseed
{quote if you have the time could you point out what i'm missing..... the chart below is just an ea i wrote to show the values iopen-iclose for the eurusd, usdchf, and eurchf... the total colum is the eurusd+usdchf.... the right hand columns are for adjusting the lot size, such as 1.2 chf that some mentioned......
Are you adding pips? That's incorrect. You cannot add or subtract USD pips and CHF pips - they are different.

Also, you cannot compare pips difference on those pairs to see the point. The equality is EURUSD_current * USDCHF_current = EURCHF_current, not (EURUSD_old - EURUSD_current) + (USDCHF_old - USDCHF_current) = EURCHF_old - EURCHF_current.
  • #11,947
  • Jul 6, 2014 11:41am Jul 6, 2014 11:41am
Quoting hayseed
it is possible for both the eur/usd and the usdchf to rise.... along with the eur/chf.... it is possible for both the eur/usd and the usd/chf to fall.... along with the eur/chf..... it is possible for the eur/usd and usd/chf to move in opposite directions.... and the eur/chf close where it opened....
I respect your opinion on many trading matters, but those events are possible only under some extremely volatile conditions when broker fails to update its quotes symmetrically. Even then, if trading is possible under those conditions, it is literally a gold mine or holy grail because it is not too difficult to write an EA that would exploit such behavior.
  • #11,948
  • Edited 1:17pm Jul 6, 2014 12:49pm | Edited 1:17pm
Quoting enivid
{quote} I respect your opinion on many trading matters, but those events are possible only under some extremely volatile conditions when broker fails to update its quotes symmetrically. Even then, if trading is possible under those conditions, it is literally a gold mine or holy grail because it is not too difficult to write an EA that would exploit such behavior.
Hey enivid,

Hayseed is correct since I am blind in coding so I did a little stimulation assuming no spreads of those 3 pairs on spreadsheet append herewith. Kindly let me know if I am missing something........

You can input the value in the blue cells for stimulation

Edit: I mean no spread is the difference between bid and ask price not the hedging spreading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hayseed Correlation and Value per pip in USD.PNG Size: 39 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Hayseed Correlation and Value per pip in USD.xls   22 KB | 290 downloads
  • #11,949
  • Jul 6, 2014 12:51pm Jul 6, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //--- hey ken.....enivid is pretty smart when it comes these little seemingly simple but actually quite complex deals.... surely, i'm makin some small error that is having a large impact..... below is the ea with my simple math.... unless you can force a tick it will not work till market opens..... EUR/USD x USD/CHF = EUR/CHF // yes, if we substitute in the current prices for those ratios the results are equal to within +/- 1 pip..... but there has yet to be a way for me to get , someone being long the eurusd and long the usdchf to be equal...
Gotcha.

Probably to partial hedge risk exposure long EUR/USD and USD/CHF at the same time since they are not perfectly -1 correlated?
  • #11,950
  • Jul 6, 2014 2:02pm Jul 6, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting enivid
{quote} Are you adding pips? That's incorrect. You cannot add or subtract USD pips and CHF pips - they are different. Also, you cannot compare pips difference on those pairs to see the point. The equality is EURUSD_current * USDCHF_current = EURCHF_current, not (EURUSD_old - EURUSD_current) + (USDCHF_old - USDCHF_current) = EURCHF_old - EURCHF_current.
//-----

hey enivid..... yes, actually i was adding pips.... that's the only way known to me to calculate the $ value..... and yes, I used mode_tickvalue to adjust for the different value of pips.....

i clearly see the algerbra in eur/usd * usd/chf == eur/chf ..... but still having trouble transferring that math to being long the eur/usd + long the usd/chf == long the eur/chf when we're speakin of dollar equal.....
//-----

in regards to them all 3 being positive or all 3 being negative, look back on the daily chart to bar[11]..... all 3 are positive.... a short time prior all 3 were negative....

i wrote an ea to look thru the history on 30 minute and up timeframes just to search these situations out..... did give the very real possibility of non symmetrical quotes consideration..... might should have given it more......

yes, this whole deal is the result of my writing an ea to trade such conditions........ thanks for the reply...... and take care......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #11,951
  • Jul 6, 2014 3:24pm Jul 6, 2014 3:24pm
Well, Hey guys, how can i express how wonderful the feeling is reading stupid arguments about longing both UC and EU instead of simply trading EC which is the thread main discussion.

Who are those traders that came out with this fantastic idea anyway!!!? Exposing your positions for negative rollover on both sides, waiting for what time to exit and for what great number of pips!?!?

Briefly, both pairs longing would never work except in just one case, "stops correlating rightfully" meaning at a period of time both will start going up or start going down together, but that will not be perfectly together in number of pips, one will have a much advance that will result in EC going up.

Pro traders who trade such a strategy don't long both pairs but take the advantage by longing the pair that will move in more pips number or simply Long EC.

Some arguments are worth to continue while others are just failures and waste of time from the beginning.

Back to the thread EC trading, go discuss EU and UC trading on its threads.
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #11,952
  • Jul 6, 2014 3:41pm Jul 6, 2014 3:41pm
EC dipped below 1.2140, that is a signal of a much deeper move to around 1.21, however it might had also formed a low at 1.2133
Am looking this coming week for a first sign that might signal the next move. If EC would continue to the late 1.2170s and finds tough resistance there to dip again down to the 1.2140s, that will signal a later move to around 1.21, while if it starts the week by dipping to the 1.2140s, that might mean a new opportunity to long again for a move to 1.22 first and higher for later.

On the long term, around 1.21 seems to be a great opportunity for longs, a dip below not seen to last long if occurs unless something really big happens, especially that UC and EC not seen to have a big movement over 1.40 or even test it and below 0.85 or even test it.
Looking at UJ too, finding tough support up 101, meaning 100 might be a huge support psychological level on the long term.
All by all, I believe we are trading the lows and highs on many pairs for the long term.
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #11,953
  • Jul 6, 2014 4:04pm Jul 6, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting J.Clinton
Well, Hey guys, how can i express how wonderful the feeling is reading stupid arguments about longing both UC and EU instead of simply trading EC which is the thread main discussion.
Some arguments are worth to continue while others are just failures and waste of time from the beginning. Back to the thread EC trading, go discuss EU and UC trading on its threads.
, especially that UC and EC not... Looking at UJ too, finding tough support up 101,
//-----

no one was arguing...... it is common for other pairs to be brought up, just as you did above..... especially when they relate to the eur/chf.... not sure how the u/j fits in......

in any event, please excuse my interruption and anything it might have brought about.......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #11,954
  • Jul 6, 2014 4:52pm Jul 6, 2014 4:52pm
There's nothing wrong in arguing when it's a built up one. Am not the OP of the thread to disallow you from posting, even if I was, anyone is free to give an opinion as long as its related to the thread discussion.

This thread had been getting good posts without going far of the content that is found on other threads like when you slept, ate or f***

I mentioned other pairs related to EC but didn't say that I will trade it in a way instead of EC because of a nonsense idea or strategy. Can't find any creation in longing both EU and UC!!!
UJ is related to EC when swiss franc as the yen are considered safe haven currencies and both pairs had been stopping on its levels of supports and resistance respectively in many occasions esp. for long term, like UJ 100 might equate EC 1.2070-1.21
Definitely, any pro trader must look at the bigger picture when trading any pair but that would not mean trading EU and UC in a certain way just because it might sometime equate EC trading or something!!!
The trader who can't trade EU and UC on its own, relying on its strategies but look at EC to decide must not trade at all!!
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #11,955
  • Jul 7, 2014 12:46pm Jul 7, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Hey enivid, Hayseed is correct since I am blind in coding so I did a little stimulation assuming no spreads of those 3 pairs on spreadsheet append herewith. Kindly let me know if I am missing something........ You can input the value in the blue cells for stimulation Edit: I mean no spread is the difference between bid and ask price not the hedging spreading. {image} {file}
I have fixed some errors in your calculations, the result is $648,03 on EURUSD+USDCHF vs. $648,33 on EURCHF. The difference is probably to some rounding issues, which are many here.

There were two main problems:
1. The Closing rates did not match. They looked as you just took them from your head. EURCHF rate always should be EURUSD * USDCHF.
2. The position volumes have not been adjusted correctly according to the Opening rates.

Also, the Contract Value columns did not make much sense. I have fixed them to show the dollar value of the contracts.

Please let me know, if you believe that some of my corrections are wrong or if you do not understand something.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hayseed.png Size: 13 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Hayseed Correlation and Value per pip in USD.xls   11 KB | 372 downloads
  • #11,956
  • Jul 7, 2014 12:51pm Jul 7, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- in regards to them all 3 being positive or all 3 being negative, look back on the daily chart to bar[11]..... all 3 are positive.... a short time prior all 3 were negative.... i wrote an ea to look thru the history on 30 minute and up timeframes just to search these situations out..... did give the very real possibility of non symmetrical quotes consideration..... might should have given it more...... yes, this whole deal is the result of my writing an ea to trade such conditions........ thanks for the reply...... and take care......h...
I am sorry, my bad. I did not mean to say that all three pairs cannot go up or down together during some period of time. Of course, that is possible and normal (e.g. CHF strengthening and EUR weakening with stable USD will lead to EUR/USD down, USD/CHF down and EUR/CHF down.) What I meant to say is that it cannot change so that the new values do not follow the rule (EURUSD * USDCHF = EURCHF).
  • #11,957
  • Edited 5:38pm Jul 7, 2014 4:58pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting enivid
{quote} I have fixed some errors in your calculations, the result is $648,03 on EURUSD+USDCHF vs. $648,33 on EURCHF.

The difference is probably to some rounding issues, which are many here. There were two main problems:

1. The Closing rates did not match. They looked as you just took them from your head. EURCHF rate always should be EURUSD * USDCHF.

2. The position volumes have not been adjusted correctly according to the Opening rates. Also, the Contract Value columns did not make much sense. I have fixed them to show the...
That's exactly my point that price can dynamically change in real market conditions for those 3 pairs at the same time for EUR, CHF and USD hence the stimulation. But whatever the mover is either EUR, CHF or USD or all of them at the same time can not out of the calculations output in the yellow cells.

EUR/CHF ÷ USD/CHF = EUR/USD
EUR/CHF ÷ EUR/USD = USD/CHF
EUR/USD x USD/CHF = EUR/CHF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 36 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Hayseed Correlation and Value per pip in USD.xls   23 KB | 285 downloads


You said it yourself below.

Quoting enivid
{quote} I am sorry, my bad. I did not mean to say that all three pairs cannot go up or down together during some period of time. Of course, that is possible and normal (e.g. CHF strengthening and EUR weakening with stable USD will lead to EUR/USD down, USD/CHF down and EUR/CHF down.) What I meant to say is that it cannot change so that the new values do not follow the rule (EURUSD * USDCHF = EURCHF).
Edit:

BTW, I had no intention to set you up in my previous post but just to understand what you meant by long EUR/USD and USD/CHF are equal to long EUR/CHF at the same time.

It is the same at the point of transaction is done by adjusting volume but no guarantee the value will be the same after, for the obvious reason.

Thanks
  • #11,958
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:43am Jul 8, 2014 1:43am
If you do a price overlay btw EUR/USD and USD/CHF, the correlation is short EUR/USD & long USD/CHF.
Theoretically, EUR/CHF 1.20 peg is translated in USD/CHF as 0.85 => EUR/USD around 1.41. In my opinion, if these values are reached and if USD/CHF is still going south with EUR/CHF near peg => SNB will need to intervene.

SNB wants CHF around 1.30 for EUR/CHF, USD/CHF fair value is around 1 => EUR/USD should be around 1.30. Looking at the fundamentals aspects, FED exit from QE, ECB fighting deflation threats, I will search only long opportunities in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF at actual values.
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #11,959
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:54am Jul 8, 2014 1:54am
beautiful setup for this pair

short short short

Venceremos
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NgEoGe8.png Size: 47 KB
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #11,960
  • Jul 8, 2014 2:24am Jul 8, 2014 2:24am
Quoting Lover Man
{quote} I'm short on EC. One spike up doesn't signal a reversal to me. 1.2160 area was good support recently and could become resistance. The 1.2170 area is just ahead too. It could go down from here.
Adding more short.
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