Here is my view if any of the next days daily candle closes below my relidht line.
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #385,822
- Jul 7, 2014 11:08am Jul 7, 2014 11:08am
Hey guys, never posted here before, but here goes.
My very quick thoughts on the GBP... It's clearly heavily bought (3 month 25 delta risk reversals close to 0) and banks desk are noting clients are heavily long.
from BNP: GBP & POSITIONING
Our latest monitor is very insightful in that the market seems to be long GBP against most currencies but most prominently EUR, JPY and SEK. While long GBP is the correct trade, there is a significant vulnerability at any weak data .Or if the tightening schedule comes into question.
Furthemore, while technicals are not my forte, its pretty clear we are due a pullback. I do think that given the relationship with vega/vol that buying puts is better on a risk/reward. but short spot will probably work just as well.
How I look at it, short here ish... add on a break sub 1.7075, with a stop on close above 1.72.
anyway, I started my own thread so if anyone wants to talk macro side of things, feel free to come and say hi ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=493230 )
Good luck!
also enjoy citi techs piece
My very quick thoughts on the GBP... It's clearly heavily bought (3 month 25 delta risk reversals close to 0) and banks desk are noting clients are heavily long.
from BNP: GBP & POSITIONING
Our latest monitor is very insightful in that the market seems to be long GBP against most currencies but most prominently EUR, JPY and SEK. While long GBP is the correct trade, there is a significant vulnerability at any weak data .Or if the tightening schedule comes into question.
Furthemore, while technicals are not my forte, its pretty clear we are due a pullback. I do think that given the relationship with vega/vol that buying puts is better on a risk/reward. but short spot will probably work just as well.
How I look at it, short here ish... add on a break sub 1.7075, with a stop on close above 1.72.
anyway, I started my own thread so if anyone wants to talk macro side of things, feel free to come and say hi ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=493230 )
Good luck!
also enjoy citi techs piece
- #385,825
- Jul 7, 2014 11:27am Jul 7, 2014 11:27am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,480 Posts
Hey guys, never posted here before, but here goes. My very quick thoughts on the GBP... It's clearly heavily bought (3 month 25 delta risk reversals close to 0) and banks desk are noting clients are heavily long. from BNP: GBP & POSITIONING Our latest monitor is very insightful in that the market seems to be long GBP against most currencies but most prominently EUR, JPY and SEK. While long GBP is the correct trade, there is a significant vulnerability at any weak data .Or if the tightening schedule comes into question. Furthemore, while technicals...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
- #385,826
- Jul 7, 2014 11:33am Jul 7, 2014 11:33am
{quote} Nice post. No question we're still in the strong bull trend. Any shorts are CT at this point. Still seeing 6930/00 on retrace but might be worth cashing a few of mine now and waiting to see. Welcome
My rationale is based of the fact the markets are pricing in a 0.9% rate for December of this year (i.e. 0.75% in novemeber and 1% in Jan '15) as per the first chart.
But UK economic data is starting to slowly loose momentum and currently the only way UK yields can go (on the short end) is lower. so for me there is quite limited upside in GBP, and given there are no shorts in GBP left, short squeezes will be rare.
- #385,828
- Jul 7, 2014 2:05pm Jul 7, 2014 2:05pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Poor Man | 1,085 Posts
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
- #385,829
- Jul 7, 2014 3:35pm Jul 7, 2014 3:35pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Technical fundamentalist | 2,202 Posts
{quote} the small retrace is over a new round of dropping has just begun happy trading venceremos
I’m not one to criticise any other trader’s point of view – the fact is, we retailers do not know what lies around the corner. However, if I based any further direction calls for Cable upon the daily charts of FXCM Dollar, EU and EG, I would say that Cable appears to be the best placed for further gains, when viewed against Guppy profiles and digestion of current financial news. Yellen wants a drop to pay off her debt; Draghi doesn’t want to buy any more junk whilst Greece catches another cold, and the revelations begin to pour out from Erste… oh, and all of the other bits of confusion that make this market what it is today.
Cable daily:
FXCM Dollar daily:
EU daily:
EG daily:
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
- #385,831
- Jul 7, 2014 4:52pm Jul 7, 2014 4:52pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Poor Man | 1,085 Posts
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
- #385,833
- Jul 7, 2014 5:58pm Jul 7, 2014 5:58pm
- | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,581 Posts
Gbp/Usd is unpredictable at the moment.
This week will show it !!
Im short and in minus, but i dont care. It will happen or not
Its always about, MM and do your account cant stand it..
Or not.
This week will show it !!
Im short and in minus, but i dont care. It will happen or not
Its always about, MM and do your account cant stand it..
Or not.
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
- #385,835
- Jul 7, 2014 7:40pm Jul 7, 2014 7:40pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,480 Posts
Currently watch this channel. Weekly pivot at 1.7113 was tested today then we had a bounce back. On Tues we have Manufacturing PMI, NIESR GDP Est. US JOLTS job Weds FOMC Minutes Thurs BOE Minutes, US Unemployment claims Since there are important events Weds/Thurs, my guess is the data on Tues may drop cable but if we are getting a proper retracement of the recent rally then we have a better chance on Weds and Thurs. Yellen will repeat her samoshit, while Carney may once again drop his bomb against market. I am looking for another short entry around...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
- #385,836
- Jul 7, 2014 8:16pm Jul 7, 2014 8:16pm
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,237 Posts
{quote} I agree Darkforce. I cashed in my lower ones. Holding the 7157 & 7152 and will add more up here as I can. 140 is a good start.
- #385,837
- Jul 7, 2014 8:28pm Jul 7, 2014 8:28pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,480 Posts
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
- #385,838
- Jul 7, 2014 9:36pm Jul 7, 2014 9:36pm
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Always manage your risk & leverage | 7,339 Posts
not euphoria follower
- #385,839
- Jul 8, 2014 1:17am Jul 8, 2014 1:17am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 19,815 Posts
{quote} I agree Darkforce. I cashed in my lower ones. Holding the 7157 & 7152 and will add more up here as I can. 140 is a good start.
Mmorning Al. 4 hour for me we have a cross over and 3 lower highs at this time
Trade confirmation
On 07-Jul-2014 at 20:53:06 (GMT)
You sold 5 GBPUSD @ 1.71265 for value date 09-Jul-2014
Front office position id: 139944901
Account: 5589929
last nights entry
- #385,840
- Jul 8, 2014 1:20am Jul 8, 2014 1:20am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader by hobby not by profession | 7,046 Posts