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  • #904,781
  • Edited 8:17pm Jun 16, 2014 7:59pm | Edited 8:17pm
not to say we dont go higher, 3589 is pretty normal. i expected 3589 last week and earlier with disappointment. we are close atm, thats just normal even if its still bearish. both bears and bulls want 3589. this is just one smaller setup within some larger norms. besides this one is 373x and another at 3832. neither has retraced and neither has to be reached. in the 373x one is a near month pp and a year close. nobody knows what will happen. anyway the trend lately has been lower and has consolidated in the past week +. so for me in the 3589/3676 area i will look for bearish tendencies if i see any. the um for 3102 is 3600 so if it would be bearish. i would expect a candle to open 3601 ish and close 3502 or better -3494. even if this would happen and we made it all the way to a LL below 3510. i would not be surprised to see 3589 again, after a LL, before a nice drop. the atm high is 3587..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #904,782
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:30pm Jun 16, 2014 8:30pm
with 3589 in mind and the um ,,, chart goes with the smaller scenario,,, its has no confirmation w/o a LL.. and even with a LL its just a projection..
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #904,783
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:33pm Jun 16, 2014 8:33pm
this is eu 4hr clearly see 3585 bulls tried to defend, the nasty play (blue oval) must have really hurt buyers defending 85 but it should have shown warning of a second attempt and hopefully they sat on hands for the 2nd attempt, sadly on here many were still trying to buy her in fact many were trying to buy her all through may, most have gone now,

anyway as posted bulls are retesting it right now, last 4hr candle was a bearish candle @ resistance, so again buyers need to be careful while she stays below 3585 right up to 3600, the market is bearish both ma,s cruising at 45 degrees need the 50 to show signs of rolling up even to consider buy this trollop, it has been a bear party for 6-7 weeks now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4hr 17 6 2014.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #904,784
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:39pm Jun 16, 2014 8:39pm
Quoting MisterSpread
A very good article before FOMC, how to prepare and what to watch out for : http://economistsview.typepad.com/ti...c-preview.html Cheers and green pips !
I like Tim's FOMC analysis. However, he did not mention housing has not backed to its speed either.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I do agreed with Tim that Yellen would most likely remain muddy and somewhat dovish in statement and minimal policy changes this week.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
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  • #904,785
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:44pm Jun 16, 2014 8:44pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Nice analysis FXSayWhat. When I look at the chart and also read what you say, something always comes into my head. It's that most of it is already factored into the current price and also the future price that's speculated by the investors/traders already committed with their trades. So it's very important that as traders we keep that in mind as well.
Thanks Saver0, yeah it's all about taking what's out there to use for my own advantage / edge.

BTW nice portfolio gain this year, and i just realized you are from US too. Cheers and keep it up!
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #904,786
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:10pm Jun 16, 2014 9:10pm
Just tacking on a rather simplistic chart view from one perspective.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #904,787
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:26pm Jun 16, 2014 9:26pm
Quoting theodoros1
{quote} Agree totaly but I think upper limit is 1.3580
Thanks. Normally if is is NOT FOMC on the tap, I would agree with you on the 1.3850 level. But if it is before FOMC, i would say anything is possible. The day ECB cut the rate by 10 point, EU bounced off its 1.3500 level for 160 pips in as little as 8 hours.

Given the fact EU ATR(200) is at 62 pips, giving it a 150 to 175 pips room to move things around from Sunday to Wednesday (before the FOMC) is very reasonable. It is FOMC we talking about here, a full bounce from its 1.3500 to 1.3675 (highest on ECB decision) before the FOMC is expected or NOT competently impossible.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #904,788
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:35pm Jun 16, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Just tacking on a rather simplistic chart view from one perspective. {image}
if so 3550 may be what you need to break high. what happens with new high is what i want to see. i could play it and enter near at 3545 area as long as bottom holds, and st target 3643/44 +.. with a 3611 mid. the thing is a bear bounce may look the same from 3550. r/r wise that may be the way to go if att 3589 wasn't touched
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #904,789
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:36pm Jun 16, 2014 9:36pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} what if tomorrow you need to enter at higher price?
don't know . still flat and looking for new potential support. let market tell......
not euphoria follower
  • #904,790
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:41pm Jun 16, 2014 9:41pm
These levels are very important. It's what the big boys use.

It may not seem that way from first glance, but plot these numbers on your own charts and see how price reacts at these levels at lower timeframes.

Gator, you might want to see if these levels mean anything to you.
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  • #904,791
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:43pm Jun 16, 2014 9:43pm
I have added long position at 1.3560 and TP= 1.3599. According to my analysis, price should go upto 1.3620.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #904,792
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:47pm Jun 16, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Just tacking on a rather simplistic chart view from one perspective. {image}
There is daily bullish divergence. It is going to bounce for a few days.
I am long and booked partial. The fibs in white color are my next few targets. Will load back at fibs in blue color.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #904,793
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:50pm Jun 16, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} don't know . still flat and looking for new potential support. let market tell......
Waiting for bullish 5:0 pattern completed in m5 TF for pullback position. there is potential bullish abcd at the same level ( "there" ) but.....#stillhalfway to go

plan is in my dream still........ no blue print yet....
not euphoria follower
  • #904,794
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:54pm Jun 16, 2014 9:54pm
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} Waiting for bullish 5:0 pattern completed in m5 TF for pullback position. there is potential bullish abcd at the same level ( "there" ) but.....#stillhalfway to go plan is in my dream still........ no blue print yet....
just curious what is bullish 5:0 pattern?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #904,795
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:54pm Jun 16, 2014 9:54pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Thanks. Normally if is is NOT FOMC on the tap, I would agree with you on the 1.3850 level. But if it is before FOMC, i would say anything is possible. The day ECB cut the rate by 10 point, EU bounced off its 1.3500 level for 160 pips in as little as 8 hours. Given the fact EU ATR(200) is at 62 pips, giving it a 150 to 175 pips room to move things around from Sunday to Wednesday (before the FOMC) is very reasonable. It is FOMC we talking about here, a full bounce from its 1.3500 to 1.3675 (highest on ECB decision) before the FOMC is expected...
whats opinion about today range before fomc ? 1,3520-1,3630 ?
  • #904,796
  • Edited 10:10pm Jun 16, 2014 10:01pm | Edited 10:10pm
The reason why I felt 1.3580 isn't a solid resistant level.

So as you can see 1.3580 was EMA 20 FIRST touch after first sell off on ECB rate cut decision. Or I would call it the FIRST retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now let's jump in a little closer on the 4H

On the 4H chart, you can see on the 13th, last Friday, the last trading day of the week in London, everybody hooped on and sold EU at 1.3580 or the EMA 20 or the first retracement.
Attached Image


Here is My Problem
Everybody sold it as if they were going to miss the train. On the other hand, 1.3580 was NOT on any of the fib levels or the whole number level. I simply don't like how this level formed and do not think is it reliable due to THREE major reasons,

 

  1. Level is formed too emotional
  2. Major support at 1.3500 - 1.3510 already had a 160 pips bounce earlier which means bull force is extremely strong.
    1.3850 would be taken out easy if bulls decide to push the price back to 1.3675 before FOMC given the fact 1.3580 is only 70 pips away and EU's regular ATR (200) is already at 62-65 pips.
  3. Profit taken. The recent EU bear trend has been going more than 20 days. My experience is when there is a major news such as FOMC or NFP scheduled, there will be good amount of profit taking. Join with the bulls at 1.3500, price passing 1.3580 would NOT be difficult.

    Sign of profit taking that already happened.
    Attached Image

There is a chance 1.3580 would hold till FOMC, but i won't be surprised when its breached given the reasons above.

If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #904,797
  • Jun 16, 2014 10:02pm Jun 16, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it surely is trying. {quote} {image}
the bullish divergence is just forming as I would like it to be.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro- i7860-TDA_269.png Size: 238 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #904,798
  • Jun 16, 2014 10:04pm Jun 16, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} just curious what is bullish 5:0 pattern?
this
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not euphoria follower
  • #904,799
  • Jun 16, 2014 10:10pm Jun 16, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} this {image}
thanks.

So these patterns are fibo numbers put in order, or sequence to happen.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #904,800
  • Jun 16, 2014 10:20pm Jun 16, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting theodoros1
{quote} whats opinion about today range before fomc ? 1,3520-1,3630 ?
Current EU ATR (200) is at 65 pips, 65 x 110% = 70 pips.

If today's market deiced to give it a run in London and New York section, price opened at 1.3570, so I would say 1.3500 (1.3570 - 70) and 1.3640 - 1.3650 (1.3570 + 70) would be the ideal range.

If market decide to stay passive for another day or two till FOMC, 1.3580 would be a good level, but i am just not too committed or surprise if 1.3580 get breached.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
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