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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #380,921
  • Edited 8:02am Jun 8, 2014 7:40am | Edited 8:02am
Quoting RussJ
{quote} So whats your short term view on Cable then??? my pm to Elbert was exactly correct Friday on NFP... put a few scenarios up but he one I called in the morning was correct and it suggested where Friday left off it would continue too 1.6872... However, now I think 1.6787 will take it up too 1.6823 were it will be shorted too 1.6740..... I see it there go back too 1.68 and when its shorted too 1.6730 I have a problem with it.. if it breaks gets too 1.6724 the target or finishes the day at 1.6707 2nd target I have no problem with it then going...
My view on GU from May 30th (even before then but I'm not digging back in my journal any further) has not changed Russ. I've posted the chart in this link in this thread many times since then as well. (please ignore the incorrect labeling in the chart in this link). The ABCD are wrong but the projection is not IMHO.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post7503562

This Daily chart here is new (I'm testing things here) but the projection remains the same. I'll be looking for a pullback (hopefully at least 6760/30ish) after market open to go long to at least this projection.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmdaily.PNG Size: 69 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #380,922
  • Jun 8, 2014 8:02am Jun 8, 2014 8:02am
Quoting albchr
{quote} My view on GU from May 30th (even before then but I'm not digging back in my journal any further) has not changed Russ. I've posted the chart in this link in this thread many times since then as well. (please ignore the incorrect labeling in the chart in this link). The ABCD are wrong but the projection is not IMHO. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post7503562 This Daily chart here is new (I'm testing things here) but the projection remains the same. I'll be looking for a pullback (hopefully at least 6760/30ish)...

Well 6730 makes sense as that's where I see a problem.. 24 being the target and if it goes early off 30 I see it being a problem... but time will tell... based on other decisions I'm kinda favouring short but will go with Euro as easier pips.

Thanks Chris
  • #380,923
  • Jun 8, 2014 8:19am Jun 8, 2014 8:19am
Quoting RussJ
{quote} Well 6730 makes sense as that's where I see a problem.. 24 being the target and if it goes early off 30 I see it being a problem... but time will tell... based on other decisions I'm kinda favouring short but will go with Euro as easier pips. Thanks Chris
Thank you as well Russ. I really enjoy the exchange of views here. It tests us to look at our own angle on things. Wish more folks could do so without all the "I'm right your wrong" chest pounding...LOL

EU used to be one of my main 4 pairs. Now I call it "Pee Yew"... .... and haven't really traded it in some time. That said however, after a bit more fall off I "might" be tempted to trade a retrace long. I'll have to see how it goes. I have so many other better pairs for this week, Pee Yew could run 200 pips either way I'll likely not even notice it.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #380,924
  • Jun 8, 2014 9:04am Jun 8, 2014 9:04am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Thank you as well Russ. I really enjoy the exchange of views here. It tests us to look at our own angle on things. Wish more folks could do so without all the "I'm right your wrong" chest pounding...LOL EU used to be one of my main 4 pairs. Now I call it "Pee Yew"... .... and haven't really traded it in some time. That said however, after a bit more fall off I "might" be tempted to trade a retrace long. I'll have to see how it goes. I have so many other better pairs for this week, Pee Yew could run 200 pips either way I'll likely...
I'm thniking this week upto 1.3805 then Monday fall short off target which is 1.3850 something.. hit 1.3837 so assay around 15 pip short of target and get slammed f same day for 160 pips. finishing the week (next week) lower low in the swing, so below 135 but only just below... But next swing target would be low 1.33's... 500 pip drop
  • #380,925
  • Jun 8, 2014 9:38am Jun 8, 2014 9:38am
Quoting RussJ
{quote} I'm thniking this week upto 1.3805 then Monday fall short off target which is 1.3850 something.. hit 1.3837 so assay around 15 pip short of target and get slammed f same day for 160 pips. finishing the week (next week) lower low in the swing, so below 135 but only just below... But next swing target would be low 1.33's... 500 pip drop
I have the same view for euro...my target is a bit higher, maybe even 1.3880, but thats why cable shorts worry me a little. Not sure that one can spike up without the other following, even if it was just half the move.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #380,926
  • Jun 8, 2014 9:49am Jun 8, 2014 9:49am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I have the same view for euro...my target is a bit higher, maybe even 1.3880, but thats why cable shorts worry me a little. Not sure that one can spike up without the other following, even if it was just half the move.

Yeah that's my wee concern (Glad we're on same page though) But what i also like and why i think Cable is short is it is backed up my my analysis on the Euro GBP - It Euro GBP reached the bottom, the very bottom for me and now goes up 1000 pips so on that note I think cable is going to be sold and the cross is going to take it lower, dollar will also be sold but GBP would not be bought as it will be weak so where as Euro will go up against USD, Cable will stay stagnant and then when USD turns, Euro will slowly retrace until it reaches 1.3837 then it will explode lower but on the way up in will have small incriments of retrace but Cable when USD is in strength will fall rapidly that's my opinion.

But I have a choice of shorting both and longing Euro GBP but I think I would rather use the money I would short Cable and put more on EUR USD as its much easier to see:

It is going to get funny though @ 1.3613/08 area for EUR USD.. it will retrace a little taking out some of the resistances or hitting them... then I think again we have a problem at 1.3597 again this time it will go a little higher than last retrace taking out more resistances and then finally hitting 1.3586 where it can retrace fully and start making up moves and finish the week at 1.3804

It Is Monday that will be BLACK Monday on EURO USD.. 1.3837 will get slammed, target being 1.3851.. price will short... straight down too 1.3772 then back in a blink of an eye or millisecond to 1.38 and collapse finish the day at 1.3660 my opinion
  • #380,927
  • Jun 8, 2014 10:54am Jun 8, 2014 10:54am
Quoting RussJ
{quote} Yeah that's my wee concern (Glad we're on same page though) But what i also like and why i think Cable is short is it is backed up my my analysis on the Euro GBP - It Euro GBP reached the bottom, the very bottom for me and now goes up 1000 pips so on that note I think cable is going to be sold and the cross is going to take it lower, dollar will also be sold but GBP would not be bought as it will be weak so where as Euro will go up against USD, Cable will stay stagnant and then when USD turns, Euro will slowly retrace until it reaches 1.3837...

Hi, may I ask, you expect now move up, or first retrace from now position on 1.3644 to 1.600/1.585 before move to 1.3800? I really didnt catch it from your post, thanks
  • #380,928
  • Jun 8, 2014 11:15am Jun 8, 2014 11:15am
I am looking to short Euro USD at 1.3670 down too 1.3586 then I will long it too 1.3804 off 1.3586. this is the critical area, Friday's target for the long will be 1.3804 ... Monday's target will be buy off 1.3740 too 1.3837then it will entirely collapse

Cable I will long at 1.6787 too 1.6823
I will short Cable then at 1.6823 If I have not entered Euro.. I will short cable too basically until I enter Euro.. but 1st target on Cable will be 1.67740, at 167.40 Cable could go back or should retrace too 1.68 then it will short....and it will have too targets intraday... 16724 and 1.6707, but I am weary that it might not reach 1.6724 and may go off 1.6730 long and I would not like that scenario but I think Cable will reach its short objective because the cross (Euro GBP will be bought and hence GBP sold) so ultimately Cable could go down too 1.6587 which makes sense from 1.6823 as it realizes 237 pip drop which is roughly correct for weekly drop. You will get another chance to enter short as well.. if 1.6707 gets reached then people will try and play a triple bottom but shorters will take a stand and heavy short it at 1.6769, but for me EUR USD is an easier ride so my cash is going to long Euro, 5 trades in Euro over the week can catch me 500 pips, where as Cable although I am seeing it short I still have hiccups when USD I plan on shorting and plan on longing Euro... so its easier to leave the weak currency, if anything, when USD reaches support short the weak, don't short Euro as its strong, short Cable. Hope that helps
  • #380,929
  • Jun 8, 2014 11:27am Jun 8, 2014 11:27am
Thanks RussJ ,o)
I hope for gap down today, lets see if fortuna will be on my side
  • #380,930
  • Jun 8, 2014 12:01pm Jun 8, 2014 12:01pm
Im thinking effect is unknown as eur is now cheap to borrow ?


Quoting 45Condor
Priced in or not, the rate cut last week for the Euro zone certainly caused some tears for those trapped by the whiplash. I still remain of the opinion that 0.50% with Sterling will attract money.. {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #380,931
  • Jun 8, 2014 12:14pm Jun 8, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting Nan-ook
Thanks RussJ ,o) I hope for gap down today, lets see if fortuna will be on my side

It wont gap down .. 1.6787 will be bought up scalped upto 1.6823... that's your short opportunity at 1.6823... but remember 1.6740 will come back for people who missed and then there will those people that missed 1.6823 will short at 1.68

just found 1 professional (Eliot Wave Trader) that agrees with me to the pip as well!!!! he has 1.6618/16 which I agree with.. from there it should go too 1.6686 then finish maybe Friday or Monday at 1.6589... other than that all other professionals are bullish on Cable, at least the Elliott Wave trader agrees with me
  • #380,932
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:24pm Jun 8, 2014 4:24pm
GU H4 GMT+3

Buy stop a little above MPP .6714.
Invalidation if price could close under ~6782...

Good luck!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmicroh4.png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmicrodaily.png Size: 50 KB
Anything is math!
  • #380,933
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:26pm Jun 8, 2014 4:26pm
Gbpusd is topping...I give it a few more hours before a drop. The question is how deep...its bank holiday, so EU session might be slow.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #380,934
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:32pm Jun 8, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Gbpusd is topping...I give it a few more hours before a drop. The question is how deep...its bank holiday, so EU session might be slow.
Hi OnlineAddictt,

I also expect a drop. I've the TP of my short set @ 1.6740.

Small addition: I am planning to add another short @ 1.6823.

Best regards,

Frietzak
  • #380,935
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:39pm Jun 8, 2014 4:39pm
Right or wrong, here's what I'm looking at for GU, UJ and GJ. I think we're still in the NFP shake out so a bit of confusion on the lower TF's as the big guns suck up orders and stops both ways. Still trying this little experiment. Using my tried and true "in the moment" SR+PA overlaid on Davit's nice BB system with harmonics thrown in to look out ahead a bit further. Sort of a combination of swing trading with some day trading to the swing zones thrown in. So far, it seems to work rather nicely but it's all very new yet so I'll see. I'll be setting sell limits in these boxed areas upon market open tonight. Best wishes and green pips this week folks.

Daily charts below for this week's views and plan.

GU - For this week I'm expecting a bit of a fall off early and I'll long to the completion of this pattern. Then short for the unfinished business around 6700. This "could" be a carry to the 6660ish. We'll see.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmdaily.PNG Size: 78 KB


UJ - Expect a little push back up into this zone and then short to completion around the 101 handle. Might have missed the "best" short entries but will see early on this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpymdaily.png Size: 93 KB


GJ- - If the above work out as I see it, this should give my beloved Dragon enough spunk to reach this area for a nice drop.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpymdaily.png Size: 90 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #380,936
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:46pm Jun 8, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting frietzak
{quote} Hi OnlineAddictt, I also expect a drop. I've the TP of my short set @ 1.6740. Small addition: I am planning to add another short @ 1.6823. Best regards, Frietzak

Perfect intrday short and bottom off todays support, justp perfect, will take the exact trade if Euro is not at my area.. same targets as well.

The intraday wil probably be 56 to 87 then drop to 39/40
  • #380,937
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:52pm Jun 8, 2014 4:52pm
Quoting RussJ
{quote} Perfect intrday short and bottom off todays support, justp perfect, will take the exact trade if Euro is not at my area.. same targets as well. The intraday wil probably be 56 to 87 then drop to 39/40
High five

Good luck this week & happy trading!
  • #380,938
  • Jun 8, 2014 5:03pm Jun 8, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting frietzak
{quote} High five Good luck this week & happy trading!

Frietzak.. its a perfect trade.. your risk is so small off there and its the exact area shorts will go from in my opinion and your exit is also perfect.. its the bottom where i expect it too come abck too 1.68 from there and then challenge 1.6724 and 1.6707 tomorrow
  • #380,939
  • Jun 8, 2014 5:04pm Jun 8, 2014 5:04pm
Quoting frietzak
{quote} High five Good luck this week & happy trading!

Am hopeful Cable falls back before reaching that 1.6823 as would like to scalp it upo at 1.6787 and exiting at 1.6823,,, notch my first trade of the day early be
nice
  • #380,940
  • Jun 8, 2014 5:06pm Jun 8, 2014 5:06pm
look like market won't pick up till wensday
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