EURUSD

in that case you had better watch out then because I am going to sell it down again....

I think the real EUR retracement will start now. That is EUR strength, NOT EURUSD strength. Look for ways to sell EUR broadly, but after a healthy rally over the next couple of weeks

worth a read :

Why has the ECB introduced a negative interest rate?
The European Central Bank's mandate is to ensure price stability by aiming for an inflation rate of below but close to 2% over the medium term. Like most central banks, the ECB influences inflation by setting interest rateshttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/item...rrow-10x10.png. If the central bank wants to act against too high inflation, it generally increases interest rates, making it more expensive to borrow and more attractive to save. By contrast, if it wants to counter too low inflation, it reduces interest rates.
Since euro area inflation is expected to remain considerably below 2% for a prolonged period, the ECB's Governing Council has judged that it needs to lower interest rates. The ECB has three main interest rates on which it can act: the marginal lending facility for overnight lending to banks, the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility. The main refinancing rate is the rate at which banks can regularly borrow from the ECB while the deposit rate is the rate banks receive for funds parked at the central bank. All three rates have been lowered.
To maintain a functioning money markethttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/item...rrow-10x10.png in which commercial banks lend to each other, these rates cannot be too close to each other. Since the deposit rate was already at 0% and the refinancing rate at 0.25%, a cut in the refinancing rate to 0.15 % meant the deposit rate was lowered to − 0.10 % to maintain this corridor.
The cut is part of a combination of measures designed to ensure price stability over the medium term, which is a necessary condition for sustainable growth in the euro area.
Do I now have to pay my bank to keep my savings for me? What is the effect of this negative deposit rate on my savings?
There will be no direct impact on your savings. Only banks that deposit money in certain accounts at the ECB have to pay. Commercial banks may of course choose to lower interest rates for savers. At the same timehttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/item...rrow-10x10.png, though, consumers and businesses can borrow more cheaply and this helps stimulate economic recovery.
In a market economy, the return on savings is determined by supply and demand. For example, low long-term interest rates are the result of low growth and an insufficient return on capital. The ECB's interest rate decisions will in fact benefit savers in the end because they support growth and thus create a climate in which interest rates can gradually return to higher levels.
But why punish savers and reward borrowers?
A central bank's core business is making it more or less attractive for households and businesses to save or borrow, but this is not done in the spirit of punishment or reward. By reducing interest rates and thus making it less attractive for people to save and more attractive to borrow, the central bank encourages people to spend money or invest. If, on the other handhttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/item...rrow-10x10.png, a central bank increases interest rates, the incentive shifts towards more saving and less spending in the aggregate, which can help cool an economy suffering from high inflation. This behaviour is not specific to the ECB; it applies to all central banks.
Isn't it possible for banks to avoid the negative deposit rate? For example, can't they simply decide to hold more banknotes?
If a bank holds more money than is required for the minimum reserves and if it is not willing to lend to other commercial banks, it has only two options: to hold the money on an account at the central bank or to hold it as cash. But holding cash is not cost-free either − not least since the bank needs a very safe storagehttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/item...rrow-10x10.png facility to warehouse the banknotes. So it is unlikely that any bank would choose to do this. The more likely outcome is that banks either lend money to other banks or pay the negative deposit rate.
European Central Bank
Directorate General Communications and Language Services
Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 69 1344 7455
email: [email protected] | website: http://www.ecb.europa.eu | Media contacts

30 pips to retrace to make it a doji day

so the high tested yesterdays high and the low came right off the H4-S2 level, nice and neat...

just placed a short @ 3564 looking for a bottom test, closed all my sub 3650 shorts between 3540/10 during the conf.

A 75 pip rally just like that.

The Euro may be down, but it certainly isn't out...

maybe so.
its the first time in a long time. a e central banker is bailing the water. its a fu situation for ez. since 2001 (911) energy has been subsidised to ez courtesy of a fed weakening the usd thus boosting the euro. sure some of it was a wash. it did allow the stronger euro to afford the energy rises brought on by the weakening of the usd from within. that scale is slowly rising in the other direction. the u.s. is producing more energy cheaper in n america, as the ecb is raising the energy cost in the ez. ez manufacturing is fighting a competitor with cheaper energy. (most cost is energy). so now although they are not saying it. manufactures flock to where they can manufacture cheaper. that puts a raise burden on the fed with the increased labor needed to manufacture. cheap rates + cheap energy = new manufacturing plants = jobs = higher gdp. that energy subsidy won't last forever.

the ez has high unemployment. its hard to have inflation with high unemployment. the less that are working to put pressure on prices. the less chance of inflation. at some point the scale will change when labor gets cheap enough and countries give more incentives to locate there. give it a decade or a war

interestingly Draghi excluded deflation risk. Measures were specifically designed for a prolonged time of low inflation. Based on his downward revision for future low inflation and his remark on the substantial role of high exchange rate on current low inflation, it is clear that Draghi expects a higher exchange rate going forward.

chunky option expiring at 3pm BST and 10am EST at 13550

I have no idea how you get to that conclusion.... nothing he said implied that

sorry, where exactly in your 35 postings since 2009 you did predict this move?

As ever:

lot of people bragging to have made tons of pips without showing analyses or trade recommendation beforehand, let alone life-trades

started shorting 3573,,,current level

don't you just love a news day?

I'm trying to digest your response in my own lingo. Emerging market economies are dependent on cash/capital inflows, right. So as long as the big guys (aka US, UK and Eurozone) are printing money, there is more of it to go around (ie greater supply) and hence more chance of inflows to the emerging markets (where there are often better returns to be made, but also at a greater risk). Hence the EM currency appreciates during QE times. And hence why today's news is bad for EM economies.

Correct?

Well I was close enough

trade what you see not what you think!
eurusd is reversing
probably forming pin bar on the 4h
passing 1.3585 is a confirmation
its windy again, sailing to 1.4000

What is your TP?

I thought it was clear. If you revise down EZ forecasts because of low inflation...which is mainly caused by a high exchange rate or so Draghi says...you are expecting 2 things to be persistent in the future: 1) low inflation 2) high exchange rate.

Looking good (technically). 4rh view is best.

Which target are you aiming for?