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USD/TRY

  • #281
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:03am Jun 3, 2014 9:03am
Quoting Citiboy
I will add if we can get an hourly close above 2.11, Still holding longs from 2.0945. holding USDZAR from 10.4450 ECB Dissapointment + NFP Beat= Massive losses for fragile 5 EM (ZAR, TRY,BRL,INR)
had a few seconds for thta only man!, did you add?
  • #282
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:13am Jun 3, 2014 9:13am
Quoting jeffmichaels
{quote} had a few seconds for thta only man!, did you add?
yea in at 2.1119, increased position by 50%.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #283
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:15am Jun 3, 2014 9:15am
South Africa and Turkey are boned. I mentioned this in my blog post monday...

END OF GLOBAL MONEY PRINTING CYCLE IS NEAR- http://trendersgame.com/2014/06/02/t...cycle-is-near/

Axel Weber also had an oped in the FT yesterday- Prepare for the tremors as Europe and America drift apart

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bb7b2...#axzz33VYMaYkY


"In particular, the story is not over for emerging-market countries that rely on cheap dollar funding. The recovery of their stock markets and currencies in the past months does not reflect improved economic fundamentals, but a better mood among investors. These countries are still vulnerable."
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #284
  • Jun 3, 2014 12:30pm Jun 3, 2014 12:30pm
Excellent work today, fellas. I live in the midwestern United States and stay up long enough to get into a position and then head off to bed. They stopped me out today..But that's how it goes I suppose when I'm doing a large position play. Thats one of the reasons I trade this pair. The high probability hours where a high or low of the day will be made are right before my bedtime. Knowing this information helps me to set stops and put on hefty positions. Had I stayed up a bit longer and let the hour finish I'd have still been in.
  • #285
  • Edited 1:22pm Jun 3, 2014 12:48pm | Edited 1:22pm
Quoting jeffmichaels
30 minutes ago {image}
The Turkish Economy Minister is Mr. Export man. He'll say all he can to drive down the value of the Lira. This isn't news really but we haven't had any good analysis out by a major publication regarding the Lira in days (which help drive the markets). Thank you for sharing.
  • #286
  • Jun 3, 2014 1:10pm Jun 3, 2014 1:10pm
lets roll! zar!!!!
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #287
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:05am Jun 4, 2014 1:05am
I'm in long again today. I'm hoping this thing will stand up on it's hind legs and really reach. This hour's low may be the low of the day, good place for stop loss but next hour could reach below that as the odds favor next hour a bit more. My target today is an obvious one, 2.13. Once we get back up to 2.15 we'll range for a while and make a bull flag on the higher TF's. Okay, the clock just chimed in the new hour as I type. Beware of a stop sweep, look for a pin bar if the bulls are running the show.

I won't trade against the fundamentals, but for the bears, if this hour sets a bearish tone (no pin) then set your stop above last hours high unless this hour makes a new one. Many pips to all and to all a good night. Soon for me anyway.
  • #288
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:15am Jun 4, 2014 1:15am
Just to qualify what I said about no pin bar in regards to a bearish tone. We'd need to see strong selling with no pin bar, not just the absence of a pin bar. So far we are bulls but this hour can be a surprise. TWT.
  • #289
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:16am Jun 4, 2014 1:16am
Quoting Scotty B
I'm in long again today. I'm hoping this thing will stand up on it's hind legs and really reach. This hour's low may be the low of the day, good place for stop loss but next hour could reach below that as the odds favor next hour a bit more. My target today is an obvious one, 2.13. Once we get back up to 2.15 we'll range for a while and make a bull flag on the higher TF's. Okay, the clock just chimed in the new hour as I type. Beware of a stop sweep, look for a pin bar if the bulls are running the show. I won't trade against the fundamentals, but...

GM - I'm with you with an early buy, but also hoping that there will be a spike down towards the overnight lows to let the London traders in at a better price.....TWT. Sleep well....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #290
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:19am Jun 4, 2014 1:19am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Added at 2.1119. avg now 2.10. If we hold above the congestion zone around 2.1070 as the next 4hr candle closes, breakout of triangle should be good to go

Nicely done sir......I was out for the breakout and so left some on the table, but still achieved my daily quota....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #291
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:50am Jun 4, 2014 1:50am
Can't go to bed quite yet..Looks like they may take this back down today. Why do I get the sense this will be back at 2.11 when I awaken from my slumber? Okay, crawling into cave now an shutting door so bears don't eat me.
  • #292
  • Jun 4, 2014 6:34am Jun 4, 2014 6:34am
If American Nonfarm Employment change will come good usd/TL can move up 2.13
it is just my idea it can be false
  • #293
  • Jun 4, 2014 9:45am Jun 4, 2014 9:45am
Quoting Scotty B
Can't go to bed quite yet..Looks like they may take this back down today. Why do I get the sense this will be back at 2.11 when I awaken from my slumber? Okay, crawling into cave now an shutting door so bears don't eat me.
Not a bad estimate for this beastie. I closed my early longs ~ the the R1 level for good pips and after lunch = after NYO, started buying again and closed out ~ yesterday's high, so a very nice day with price holding at the bottom of my new four hour up channel....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #294
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:58pm Jun 4, 2014 1:58pm
Not too bad of a day. I think we'll see a pull back to 2.1075, look for bear flags to form on the hourly. I will look to get long from there. There will be a fella from the FED speaking on interest rates on the 5th here in the US. This could make Friday an extremely interesting day. We may well see 2.15 that day depending on what he says. Either way though, the US in on a path to increase rates while Turkey is on one to lower them. This sets the Lira up to fall. We are still tracking on our daily slope of appreciation. I'll check back in closer to London.
  • #295
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:15am Jun 5, 2014 1:15am
Quoting Scotty B
Not too bad of a day. I think we'll see a pull back to 2.1075, look for bear flags to form on the hourly. I will look to get long from there. There will be a fella from the FED speaking on interest rates on the 5th here in the US. This could make Friday an extremely interesting day. We may well see 2.15 that day depending on what he says. Either way though, the US in on a path to increase rates while Turkey is on one to lower them. This sets the Lira up to fall. We are still tracking on our daily slope of appreciation. I'll check back in closer...
Just taken an initial buy on the spike under yesterday's low to the 50% retrace on my 15m chart....the 61% is a pip from your 2.1075 level......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #296
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:27am Jun 5, 2014 1:27am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Just taken an initial buy on the spike under yesterday's low to the 50% retrace on my 15m chart....the 61% is a pip from your 2.1075 level......
I'm long also. I'm scaling in today as the market has been choppy recently. I'm hoping for a touch of 2.11 or below turned pin bar. Hopefully we will touch 2.13 today. US news could be helpful or harmful, if it pulls this back it will only open up really nice pricing to the buyers.
  • #297
  • Edited 1:55am Jun 5, 2014 1:42am | Edited 1:55am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} I'm long also. I'm scaling in today as the market has been choppy recently. I'm hoping for a touch of 2.11 or below turned pin bar. Hopefully we will touch 2.13 today. US news could be helpful or harmful, if it pulls this back it will only open up really nice pricing to the buyers.
Likewise - I added on the spike under the BRN / S1....under these conditions I also scale out......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #298
  • Jun 5, 2014 11:32am Jun 5, 2014 11:32am
Ah, one of those days. Europe surprised investors across the board. This move will cause money to flee Europe, but Turkey doesn't want the hot money. This radically increases the probability of a drastic cut from Basci this month along with the all the talk of inflation improving in June. Couple this with Erdogan's constant berating of the CBRT and you have a very interesting setup. Now that the european floodgates have opened, if Basci does not act, the lira will rapidly appreciate and their exports will end quickly. The communications out of the CBRT up to this month's rate meeting will be very important. I'm still scaling into this beast. I had a feeling that the fundamentals could get interesting today, they could get even more crazy tomorrow as the US talks rates. This could be what the Lira needs to really push it north. TWT.
  • #299
  • Jun 5, 2014 6:51pm Jun 5, 2014 6:51pm
The speech we got today out of the FED didn't necessarily help the trade but it didn't hurt it either. USDTRY has made it down to the main daily TL, I've stopped adding to my longs at 2.0980. This has been so choppy lately it's difficult to know what it will do intraday. Being that we are at the lower ascending TL I am hopeful we'll see buying Friday. If this lower TL breaks, beware, the bears might try pushing this down, I doubt strongly that this will be the case however. The fundies are still on the side of the bulls. Not even going to try to guess on a target for today but I am hopeful we get back above 2.10.
  • #300
  • Jun 6, 2014 1:14am Jun 6, 2014 1:14am
Quoting Scotty B
The speech we got today out of the FED didn't necessarily help the trade but it didn't hurt it either. USDTRY has made it down to the main daily TL, I've stopped adding to my longs at 2.0980. This has been so choppy lately it's difficult to know what it will do intraday. Being that we are at the lower ascending TL I am hopeful we'll see buying Friday. If this lower TL breaks, beware, the bears might try pushing this down, I doubt strongly that this will be the case however. The fundies are still on the side of the bulls. Not even going to...
That hit on the TL late yesterday was also the 50% retrace of the rally from mid May, so a retest and move back up during the main daily session would be a good buy signal......
Trading Levels with WRBs
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