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USD/TRY

  • #241
  • May 27, 2014 3:15am May 27, 2014 3:15am
Caught nice move on USDZAR ( I re-entered ), Also added to USDTRY
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  • #242
  • May 27, 2014 3:19am May 27, 2014 3:19am
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  • #243
  • May 27, 2014 3:27am May 27, 2014 3:27am
Could see nice lil' squeeze maybe at US open, what do you guys reckon, also I don't really know what to make of Erdogan comment ...
  • #244
  • May 27, 2014 5:04am May 27, 2014 5:04am
Quoting jeffmichaels
Could see nice lil' squeeze maybe at US open, what do you guys reckon, also I don't really know what to make of Erdogan comment ...

Returned to see that price got up to the 50% on my 4 hr chart, so a 250 pip European Morning....the closed hourly high was a high volumed shooting star, so I guess European profit taking and now a high volumed doji = indecision, so I'll wait for the US traders to make their decisions.....Erdogen's comments are above my pay grade......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #245
  • May 27, 2014 8:30am May 27, 2014 8:30am
ZAR making a big move, could be a high high on daily. Have some longs on from 10.40, will scale up significantly if we close the day above 10.44 or so
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #246
  • May 27, 2014 8:42am May 27, 2014 8:42am
Quoting Citiboy
ZAR making a big move, could be a high high on daily. Have some longs on from 10.40, will scale up significantly if we close the day above 10.44 or so
Just re-entered
  • #247
  • May 27, 2014 9:26am May 27, 2014 9:26am
Quoting Citiboy
ZAR making a big move, could be a high high on daily. Have some longs on from 10.40, will scale up significantly if we close the day above 10.44 or so
What do you think 10.50 at least, possibly 1.56 ?
  • #248
  • May 27, 2014 9:35am May 27, 2014 9:35am
Good day out there! The market can't get too ahead of itself now. I believe we'll see a tempered uptrend until the CBRT signals it's time to sell again. I'm predicting an average slope of 25.8 pips per day from the latest low on the daily where this upmove started. That will put the market up around the 2.20 mark by the 2nd week in July, then 2.25 by early August. I'm not totally sold on 2.25 but I do think we'll symbolically knock out 2.2. We'll see what the tone of the market is when we get there.

As for tomorrow, I'm looking at 2.0975 for a possible market entry. More to come later.
  • #249
  • May 27, 2014 10:08am May 27, 2014 10:08am
Quoting Scotty B
Good day out there! The market can't get too ahead of itself now. I believe we'll see a tempered uptrend until the CBRT signals it's time to sell again. I'm predicting an average slope of 25.8 pips per day from the latest low on the daily where this upmove started. That will put the market up around the 2.20 mark by the 2nd week in July, then 2.25 by early August. I'm not totally sold on 2.25 but I do think we'll symbolically knock out 2.2. We'll see what the tone of the market is when we get there. As for tomorrow, I'm looking at 2.0975 for a possible...
Interested in seeing that ScottyB. Is that minus swap -7.6 pips long on my platform ?
  • #250
  • May 27, 2014 10:32am May 27, 2014 10:32am
Quoting jeffmichaels
{quote} Interested in seeing that ScottyB. Is that minus swap -7.6 pips long on my platform ?
Sounds about right. I trade through Oanda where the swap is prorated. If one can grab these large swings the swap isn't the end of the world. Just wait, we may see the swap come down real soon:

Basci Erdogan
--------------Bulls
bears
  • #251
  • May 27, 2014 2:39pm May 27, 2014 2:39pm
Looks like we are building a zone to turn high in both pairs. Idiosyncratic risks picking up as well... SA GDP and Mining strike.... Erdogan ripping the CBRT for more cuts.


US data good today, 2 year yields still suppressed. Will wait for spread to tighten up a bit then load up long both pairs in big size.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #252
  • May 27, 2014 5:31pm May 27, 2014 5:31pm
The truck has been loaded. 10.45 and 2.10 longs, stops relatively tight at avg 10.36 and 2.0850
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #253
  • May 27, 2014 10:38pm May 27, 2014 10:38pm
Alright, the spreads have tightened a couple times here in the last hour and the ask has been inching downward. I'm looking at the obvious 2.1 mark for support today. We may see a stop spike under the 2.1 level but as the market is working on turning there is high demand for liquidity and this is not allowing price to pull back much. My target today will be 2.1175. I think we'll see one more strong move tomorrow and then price will let the X axis catch up a bit and we'll flag sideways for a while and resume buying next week. Friday will be a profit taking day back to support, probably 2.12ish.

I'm in @ 2.1021, I'm waiting patiently for the ask to be generous and come down closer to 2.10 so I can add more, TWT.
  • #254
  • May 27, 2014 10:41pm May 27, 2014 10:41pm
Ha, well that happened quickly I got 2.1003. Think she'll give me 2.0975?
  • #255
  • May 27, 2014 11:14pm May 27, 2014 11:14pm
Quoting Scotty B
Ha, well that happened quickly I got 2.1003. Think she'll give me 2.0975?

GM - probably as I took off my overnight limit down there and bought at FO with you......my speads went from ~7 to ~23pips in the 6:01 bar....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #256
  • May 27, 2014 11:23pm May 27, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} GM - probably as I took off my overnight limit down there and bought at FO with you......my speads went from ~7 to ~23pips in the 6:01 bar....
Excellent work as always, sir. I'm watching the flag break as I type. We are still 40 minutes out from when this thing usually gets running, We'll see what happens.

On an off note, we know you're the yacht captain, are you cruising your own yacht by now?
  • #257
  • May 27, 2014 11:43pm May 27, 2014 11:43pm
Quoting Citiboy
The truck has been loaded. 10.45 and 2.10 longs, stops relatively tight at avg 10.36 and 2.0850

http://www.ozytive.com/wp-content/up...iger-Woods.gif
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #258
  • May 27, 2014 11:54pm May 27, 2014 11:54pm
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Excellent work as always, sir. I'm watching the flag break as I type. We are still 40 minutes out from when this thing usually gets running, We'll see what happens. On an off note, we know you're the yacht captain, are you cruising your own yacht by now?
Thanks - a strong move for Frankies Hour - I took partials above the BRN with the high so far at today's R1......a pull back to get the London traders in and I'll buy again with them.

LOL - no, I sold mine when I started being paid as a captain - the boats that I drive now are in the $3M - $5M range, so you can imagine the running costs, depreciation etc etc...OPM is best for that
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #259
  • May 28, 2014 7:56am May 28, 2014 7:56am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Thanks - a strong move for Frankies Hour - I took partials above the BRN with the high so far at today's R1......a pull back to get the London traders in and I'll buy again with them. LOL - no, I sold mine when I started being paid as a captain - the boats that I drive now are in the $3M - $5M range, so you can imagine the running costs, depreciation etc etc...OPM is best for that
That's awesome, you're a lucky man. I'm from the midwest here in the US and it's finally green and warm here after a long cold winter. One of these days I'll pack the family up and head south. BTW, I'm the captain of a land yacht, I call it the family truckster (minivan). I keep telling my wife I'm going to go all out and have it "wrapped" in wood paneling. She will not allow it.

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I pulled the plug after that oddly long spike a few pips off the high. I guess we're moderating the move a bit early. If this thing stays choppy and sideways there should be another nice spike tomorrow. I'm thinking we may very well touch the 2.0975 mark again for further buying. Tomorrow at this time our average TL price that I mentioned yesterday will be @ 2.10. I think this will be increasingly strong support before the market prepares to move further north.
  • #260
  • May 28, 2014 8:41am May 28, 2014 8:41am
One more thought here. The news coming out of Turkey is really overheated. I think we'll see one more decent spike before week's end. Adjusting as I always do, I'm eyeballing 2.13 as a high for this week. I will not be surprised if the CBRT caves to all the pressure and lowers rates some more--especially next month. Turkey is actually benefiting from a weak Lira, it will be good for their exports throughout the year if the market again touches the 2.2-2.3 range.

It's rare for me to put on positions this late in the day but prices are coming down towards 2.1 again and I don't want to miss the boat come tomorrow as the pair has tended to stay locked up above wholesale pricing through the off-hours. I'm @ 2/3 of my desired position going into tomorrow. We'll see what happens.
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