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  • #261
  • May 29, 2014 1:08am May 29, 2014 1:08am
I can hear the crickets in here, they are hurting my ears! I've held a long since the late NY session. Anything could happen but this thing is due for a good bull day, so far they've been somewhat tame. I'm just twiddling my thumbs here as the market drifts sideways. Today is a bank holiday in a few countries, that could be taming the markets a bit. But heck, I say don't have a holiday in the middle of the week. You snooze you lose pals! I'm hoping for a reach into the 2.12's, I'm standing by my 2.13 figure by Friday. The important US news later today could give this thing enough umph to either really take off or spike temporarily the other way. Stops ready just in case. Have a great day everyone and many green pips to all.

P.S. Do our friend Basci a favor and buy buy buy
  • #262
  • May 29, 2014 5:50am May 29, 2014 5:50am
Quoting Scotty B
I can hear the crickets in here,...
Yeah cleaning up my mess from yesterday, was still holding longs from 2.1030 ish, hedged them on the spike down.

Same on ZAR.... grrr

Think the lows maybe be in for today, but there could be a retest of the lows before moving back up, which is still what I see happening although it may not be today imho.
  • #263
  • May 29, 2014 8:32am May 29, 2014 8:32am
Took a bit of a hit on that down spike this morning... ouch.

Price action in these two pairs has been prtty annoying lately. The Dollar has been weak broadly speaking today, hard to see when this will finally let up. Low VIX/Low Yields/All Time High Stocks cannot last for much longer. the fact that the EUR cant even rally more than a few pips is the tell for me....


EUR is funding carry trades, need a draghi disappointment to see a selloff in TRY and ZAR
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #264
  • May 29, 2014 9:05am May 29, 2014 9:05am
The US data releases did not help us out this time around. I still have skin in the game. We'll see what they want to do with it. Patience.
  • #265
  • May 29, 2014 9:22am May 29, 2014 9:22am
Today has been all about testing the levels that I have on my higher TF charts.....first the overnight low, then the ~LO high - also today's DP and later another S&R, also todays S2 where I bought and missed banking at the 50% retrace at 11:15gmt.....LOL, another technical move....so now I've banked at the S1 as its looking like the earlier low will be revisited.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #266
  • Edited 1:52pm May 29, 2014 10:16am | Edited 1:52pm
Quoting Islander
Today has been all about testing the levels that I have on my higher TF charts.....first the overnight low, then the ~LO high - also today's DP and later another S&R, also todays S2 where I bought and missed banking at the 50% retrace at 11:15gmt.....LOL, another technical move....so now I've banked at the S1 as its looking like the earlier low will be revisited.....TWT
Yes we'll see. I've all but ruled out shorting this anymore, the higher TFs are looking like they are at a threshold, the bears are trying to push this down. From all I've been reading, the interest rate cut this month was meant to discourage any more inflows into Turkey as exports are really helping maintain Turkey's balanced growth. If the Lira is to appreciate further, this balanced growth which is one of their fiscal goals will not be achieved.

I've taken the following from the data from todays Summary of The Monetary Policy Committee Meeting:

"8. Recent data show that exports continued to grow in the first quarter of 2014.
The export volume index excluding gold rose again in March and hovered
above its average in the previous quarter. With the support of the global
recovery signaled by recent survey indicators, and the pickup in international
trade, exports are envisaged to follow a favorable path in the upcoming period.
PMI and BTS export indicators also support this outlook."

"Monetary Policy and Risks

11. Owing to the significant decline in uncertainties about the Fed’s asset
purchases recently coupled with the recovery in global growth, the risk
sentiment improved across global financial markets. Along with these
developments, emerging economies saw limited amounts of portfolio inflows
after a long while. Risk indicators, which deteriorated in times of elevated
country-specific risks in Turkey, recovered due to the waning domestic and
external uncertainties. With the recent decline in uncertainties and
improvement in the risk premium indicators, market interest rates declined
across all maturities. In this regard, the Committee decided on a measured
decrease in the one-week funding rate. It is stated that, with a flat yield curve
even after this decision, the monetary policy stance will continue to be tight."

Given the above language regarding exports and the reasoning for the rate cut I would not be surprised to see further cuts next month. With this in mind, I'd be cautious of being a buyer of the Lira any further. In the past when the CBRT discouraged inflows the market saw Lira depreciation. I will be curious to see how this breakout to the downside develops. Only TWT.
  • #267
  • Edited 2:25am May 30, 2014 1:29am | Edited 2:25am
Well guys, the US data kicked my butt yesterday. I'm still in the game hoping for some upward movement today. No way we will see 2.13 to end the week as I had predicted but longer term I remain bullish. I believe the market will shrug off this US data as many believe the US on a good track, this will be a transitory blip. I do see the bear flag on the hourly, it's possible that the market will push lower but I think its the wrong direction fundamentally. Thats one thing that makes my trading different nowadays. Back just a couple years ago when it was all technical for me I'd trade either direction if the "setup" was there. Now I will not trade but one direction if at all--the story of the market has to make sense to me. This is obviously not without risk but it has been an extremely valuable evolution in my trading journey.

So given the "story" of the market today, no high impact news is slated to come out in regards to either country. There are a couple US data releases to pay attention to, hopefully they help the trade. No bank holidays, I'm hoping that we can get back up above 2.10 today. Have a great weekend when it gets here!
  • #268
  • May 30, 2014 1:53am May 30, 2014 1:53am
Quoting Scotty B
Well guys, the US data kicked my butt yesterday. I'm still in the game hoping for some upward movement today. Now way we will see 2.13 to end the week as I had predicted but longer term I remain bullish. I believe the market will shrug off this US data as many believe the US on a good track, this will be a transitory blip. I do see the bear flag on the hourly, it's possible that the market will push lower but I think its the wrong direction fundamentally. Thats one thing that makes my trading different nowadays. Back just a couple years ago when...

GM - no action in the Australasian session, with the lows on the lower TL and now price is heading for the upper hourly down TL - aka bear flag - at ~ the 2.0935 level, so I'm waiting to see what the London traders do....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #269
  • May 30, 2014 9:06am May 30, 2014 9:06am
ZAR making moves! still waiting for TRY
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #270
  • Jun 2, 2014 2:14am Jun 2, 2014 2:14am
GM - I bought the spike down to the 15m 50% retrace / today's DP / **25 level.....so far this has pulled price back into the hourly up channel that aligns with Scotty's target above the 2.2 level......TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #271
  • Edited 12:20pm Jun 2, 2014 11:55am | Edited 12:20pm
Thank you for your insights today, Islander. I took profits up at 2.1069, just below the daily 30 ATR. I thought about it this past weekend and I feel bad when folks follow me and lose trades, even though I tell them not to. So, from now on I'm going to do my best to share my stop loss levels. The daily TF is in a wedge pattern right now. I've been surprised by the lack of follow through to the upside, though we are still following the 25pip/day appreciation. Given that we are at the descending TL of this wedge I will not be surprised to see this sold back to the ascending line. What I'm really hoping to see is this thing breakout to to upside.

Depending on the PA come London, a potential buy area will be 2.1025 where there are likely stops. Otherwise, they may take this down to 2.0925, a move I will not participate in. The only selling I will do is take profits. One thing I wanted to mention is that as I'm buying I use the Ask price chart through oanda.. If you're charting where the ask has been you can know whether or not you're getting a relatively good price.
  • #272
  • Jun 2, 2014 12:01pm Jun 2, 2014 12:01pm
USDZAR doing really well, still long from 10.4450. Waiting for USDTRY 4hr triangle to breakout before adding to my current longs from 2.0942.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #273
  • Jun 2, 2014 12:33pm Jun 2, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting Scotty B
Thank you for your insights today, Islander. I took profits up at 2.1069, just below the daily 30 ATR. I thought about it this past weekend and I feel bad when folks follow me and lose trades, even though I tell them not to. So, from now on I'm going to do my best to share my stop loss levels. The daily TF is in a wedge pattern right now. I've been surprised by the lack of follow through to the upside, though we are still following the 25pip/day appreciation. Given that we are at the descending TL of this wedge I will not be surprised to see this...

You're welcome....nice exit, I see that my last one was at 2.1065 as posted elsewhere some hours ago with this chart.....like you, so far I do not yet see a convincing upside breakout as the 2.1060 / 70 area has now held three times on my 4 hrly chart......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #274
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:14am Jun 3, 2014 2:14am
Trying for a long. Stop below the most recent low bid of 2.0978. Target 2.1150. I thought we were going to see another bear day until this pin bar showed up. TWT.
  • #275
  • Edited 3:23am Jun 3, 2014 2:29am | Edited 3:23am
Quoting Scotty B
Trying for a long. Stop below the most recent low bid of 2.0978. Target 2.1150. I thought we were going to see another bear day until this pin bar showed up. TWT.
GM - I took an initial long on the spike under the BRN / 61% fib.....it was in a 1m pin and 5m / 15m high volumed hammers....

Edit: closed for a wash after price failed to break back above the DP and turned back down, falling to my next S&R area / 4hr fib ~ 2.0960 where I bought again....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #276
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:01am Jun 3, 2014 7:01am
Hi all...
Honestly I can say you Scotty you are successful trader. Congrulations. I wish all user to earn more profits.

In usd/TL there is a pressure normally it should be in 2.13 but still it is in 2.1
  • #277
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:25am Jun 3, 2014 8:25am
30 minutes ago

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  • #278
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:36am Jun 3, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Islander
{quote} GM - I took an initial long on the spike under the BRN / 61% fib.....it was in a 1m pin and 5m / 15m high volumed hammers.... Edit: closed for a wash after price failed to break back above the DP and turned back down, falling to my next S&R area / 4hr fib ~ 2.0960 where I bought again....
Took partials on the break above the BRN which now puts today's range at 155 pips.....TP on remainder ~last weeks high with SL now at +120.....OCO and I'm finished for the day.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #279
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:55am Jun 3, 2014 8:55am
I will add if we can get an hourly close above 2.11, Still holding longs from 2.0945.

holding USDZAR from 10.4450


ECB Dissapointment + NFP Beat= Massive losses for fragile 5 EM (ZAR, TRY,BRL,INR)
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #280
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:01am Jun 3, 2014 9:01am
Quoting Citiboy
I will add if we can get an hourly close above 2.11, Still holding longs from 2.0945. holding USDZAR from 10.4450 ECB Dissapointment + NFP Beat= Massive losses for fragile 5 EM (ZAR, TRY,BRL,INR)

Added at 2.1119. avg now 2.10. If we hold above the congestion zone around 2.1070 as the next 4hr candle closes, breakout of triangle should be good to go
Twitter: @TrendersGame
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