Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I'm new here, but not new to trading. With all due respect to the shorters, there is some unfinished business in the 1.6850 area, +-10 pips, thats where I will look into shorts. Its too soon to short now, but fairly safe above 1.68 with low to medium leverage...to build up shorts for 1.6350-70. After that, I don't know...either 1.73 or lower than 1.60, but its not important to know that now.

Myself have 2 mindsets now!!!! I wanted the sell to happen at 1.6767/69... 86 it needed to break for change of short term trend but for it to be really bearish it needed the sell at 1.6767/69 in my opinion......

And I just realized its end of the month which I didn't realize Friday, Although I'm bearish I will look to close my 1.6767 limit short after 1.6755 is taken out and I see reversals around 1.6714.... reason being in see potentially 1.6732/28 testing 1.6755 which is going to get shorted then 1.6714 could take us too 1.6810 area and potentially See a double top close too 170 in the making.... although there will be a lot of bears camped at 1.6870/87 area as well.

If on the other hand we break lower then I will await a pullback off 1.6686 area to enter short.

But here's a chart with potential to Double top very easily... don't get short sighted, we just finished the month end and Week end and although this is a 4 hour chart... my reasons are based solely on the monthly chart why I believe we could double top, either way i will trade price at the fractals with signals.. i see the potential on the other hand for us to be down at 1.6615 area Friday.. 80 pip pop too 1.6687 then finish the day 1.6590... although i think would like to see price higher at least up at 1.6830 area for that to happen and yet at 1.6830 area there will be sharks waiting at 1.6750 area to take it higher. So I will be honest my shorts at 1.6767.. i have had a change of mind about it getting lower lows breaking swings in the short term, still a bear on Cable but could see the double top happening quite easily, number of reasons and here's a chart showing a potential reversal too double top

Cable_My four charts’ worth_31.05.14

Monthly: Hmm, twice now, Cable has failed to close above that 76.4 FE; with the month just closed being seemingly bearish. I also see a failure for the red MAs to invert north – yes, it takes time on a monthly perspective – but I am expecting some pull back of current PA onto these MAs, before any further runs north. (If there are to be any.)


Weekly: Nice pin from four weeks back shows a little stab above the 76.4 FE, but since then, it has been south. Whether this remains to be the case – to perhaps test for support on the ascending red MAs – remains to be seen. Indeed, a few months back showed that PA was happy to oscillate along the 61.8 FE… perhaps reflecting fair market value.


Daily: Tough one to judge, as Cable has that nasty habit of breaking to the downside of a daily Guppy profile, only to push back north of it when least expected.


Pivots: PA closed on a kiss of the MP. Whether the MP wants another remains to be seen.

If I look at daily charts for the other instruments that I monitor for my Cable trading, I would say the EG is on a southerly path. Likewise, I would state the same for EU. Regarding the FXCM Dollar, it may well be that the recent southerly push is the test for support of the red MAs of the inverting Guppy profile, prior to further moves north.

EG Daily:

EU Daily:

FXCM Dollar Daily:

Sedition. It’s a lovely word, and packed full of potent punch. It’s also a dangerous concept that, left unchecked, rises quickly, and takes most by surprise.
I was in Bangkok at the beginning of this month – my little suite high above the sultriness of the streets below, aiding in my comfort of this paradise of culinary delights, and carnal debauchery. Of course, the air-conditioning within my retreat was shielding me from the heat of the sweating bodies that could be found a few hundred feet below me, and perhaps this is what made me enjoy all the more my reading of John Locke’s philosophical thoughts.

With my feet up, and the cushions upon the large sofa positioned just right, I settled down to an evening of beautiful thunder storms, a skyline resplendent with multi-coloured lights from the myriad buildings to be seen from the glass wall of my room, and a reading of a 17th-century English philosopher who, albeit perhaps the most boring of all great thinkers, is the one that has most influenced the way in which most of us in the so-called West live today.

‘Whosoever in authority exceeds the power given him by the law, and makes use of the force he has under his command to compass that upon the subject which the law allows not,’ states the, arguably, most sensible of all philosophers, ‘may be opposed as any other man, who by force invades the right of another.’

Hmm, strong stuff, is that, and a sentiment that has influenced not only contemporary liberal democracy, but also such things as the British Constitution – such as it is; the Constitution of the United States – currently being undermined, as it is; and, for a measure of how dangerous it can sometimes be to ignore the minds of practical philosophers, the French Revolution.

Cake for the minds of the masses? Perhaps. And a thought that seems to be more and more appetising, as one seems to be seeing, the world over, how the political classes have a canny knack of writing laws that the public are neither privy to before enactment, nor have the right to vote upon; this method of rule, increasingly, and more frequently, leading to the suppression of the right of the subject. (No, I am not an anarchist, and do believe that only through good governance of a state can a person achieve their full potential. The snag to this belief being that good governance is becoming more and more absent… in my opinion.)

And so, as many of us will have recently seen, the people of Thailand have had enough of the corruption, and mendacity, that is endemic to the politic classes of this society of the smiling. Indeed, I would argue that this unrest is growing truer every day, the world over, and that most of us are feeling progressively oppressed by elected regimes that do not rescind outdated means of population management. Indeed, I would accuse that we are also more regularly subjected to abuses that enjoy impunity from repercussions – both physical from state statists in uniform, and, more damagingly in the long-term, by those dressed in suits that we do not see… think poorer standards of living in order for the rulers of finance to retain their realms of riches.

Think not of what damage your country has already done to you, but of what damage you can do to the rulers of your country. That’s my little quote for the day. I hope I don’t get a knock on the door in the near future, before being ‘disappeared’.

Anyway, back to Thailand, and a possible template of what may transpire elsewhere (the results from the recent European elections being a thought that should not remain merely moot in point). The void that has been left by the dissolution of top-level government has now been filled by the army, with the, should we say slow in coming, public approval of the king… funny how the freeloaders always manage to come around to the thinking of those that hold the guns, and in the process, manage to survive almost countless insurrections. Yes, this monarch is revered, and regarded as a god by many of the public. But, well, the excuses given for his non-apparition are that he is too old and frail. Hmm, and there I was, thinking that deities were omnipotent – silly me.

That said, I feel sure that the military coup d'état had some backroom blessing to begin with; and no, I’m not referring to those bare-footed skinheads that wrap a cloth around themselves and proclaim to be peaceful monks – they all know kung foo, and so are as hard as nails. Nor, I would think – but one can never rule it out – has any consecration of this seizing of the rod of power come from the gentle hand of ‘head’ blessing; such as can be found in one those seedy little rooms that were just around the corner from my hotel. (Why do they insist on having the air conditioning on full power, and in the process, freeze the client into embarrassment?)

And so what we seem to be witnessing in Thailand is a situation in which the individual citizen has been left to feel so isolated by the failure of elected leaders, that they consider themselves powerless to, and seemingly are when, attempting to secure protection from the transition of one regime to another. Martial law is not benign to the citizen. Of course, in the case of Thailand and its military coups, this is nothing new, but it raises an interesting question for the publics around the world. And that is: with the growing disillusionment of people with modern politics, will we see such assumptions of power by the state-armed, or even public-self-armed, in the Western hemisphere?

One could argue that this is already happening in the Ukraine. How much longer will it be before such disasters befall a nation that is fully signed-up to a Europe seemingly lacking equality for all? Or, indeed, across the pond of the Atlantic Ocean, and where the increasingly heavier anvil of fascism is falling faster upon the land of the free?

I suppose we will have to wait and see, for, as John Locke stated: ‘To take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery, puts a ruler into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience, and are left to the common refuge, which God hath provided for all men against force and violence.’

In summary, the man that influenced, perhaps to the greatest extent, the Western democracies that many of us now live under, was also the man that supported revolution if these democracies failed to deliver upon their promises.

... To the entire read Condor. I shall only highlight this section as the quote will truncate it out if not, as the main thrust of what we, the world over, all face.

And so the cycle of history continues. Have we, as a species, learned anything beyond how to build ever more efficient ways of carrying out that cycle?

I'm bullish on USD but I can see it making a move lower before pushing up further which would also co exist with Cable potentially going higher and double topping

If gets to your C plan then 1.6825/31 will hold your 1.6895 short!!

I dont see that the gbp will hit the 16776 again . Close under 16760 support is good waiting now to break 16692

With GBP volatility, you don't think it will go 20 pips higher? If you traded this pair, you would know that 50 pips and and down is almost no real move, eurusd can move 5 pips at the same time. And the close below 1.6760 doesn't mean anything really, just like charts and lines, its useless. PA is all that matters...if the downtrend continues, we will go above 1.68 again...if not and it keeps falling down on monday, it only means that there is no downtrend and its only loading up for a move above 1.69 again.

yep myself after realizing we were at end of the month I now think we are going to get a double top in Cable at 169.87/95, I played the short, limit at 1.6767 but didn;t want to see it break 1.6769... 1.6786 was the overall resistance but it crept into that a little more, so after analyzing on weekend and looking at it more and more, I see the very possibility of a double top

Just a little unsure were to enter.. 1st target would be 1.6810 and I'm fine picking the spot for the retrace but where to enter off this 1.6780 pullback is the question.

Have an idea and will await confirmation there but if I am incorrect then will take the short pullback and short but really think it will double top over next 2 weeks, probably top out a week Wednesday forming the double top then it shorts right down to that level I was looking at 1.6450 in my opinion

we all need money now

my game plan

Attachment

For the recent downtren from 1.699, I prefer your 1 2 3 elliott wave count rather than the other one (A B C)

GBPUSD trades near 1.7000 level in early May only to find itself meets with the bears in at that level. With that in mind, we see GBPUSD traded 200 pips down the following week and hit 1.6691 low last seen on 16 April 2014. Currently, I would be expecting more bears to come into picture. That is, IF only GBPUSD closes below the 100SMAs in daily chart, would more or less confirm the uptrend reversal. Of course, I would be cautious that this could just be a correction in the GBPUSD if by this week it does not closehttp://cdncache-a.akamaihd.net/items...rrow-10x10.png below 1.6700 level.
In mid-term, I would short the GBP with in mind that ECB’s decision could drag the pound down too. The mosthttp://cdncache-a.akamaihd.net/items...rrow-10x10.png I would expect the GBPUSD to retest 1.6800 level before hitting down to 1.6600 level.

Here's my reasoning with technical analysis: http://alternateforexiew.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/hsbc-flash-pmi-on-tues-ecbs-decision-on-thursday-nfp-on-friday-what-to-expect/

Cheers

All the shorters make me wanna long this...until 1.6850, at least. But if that breaks(4h close above)...1.70 comes into picture again.

I don't think there were many bears below 1.7, the only reason it dropped, was the huge eur drop. If eur didn't drop, gbpusd would be way above 1.70 now. And even that...eurusd dropped 400+ pips and gbpusd has troubles to drop 250-300, while under normal circumstances, it would drop 700 pips, when eurusd drops 400. Its just not bearish yet. If eurusd spikes up, which it wants to, badly, then gbp will spike twice as fast.

GU 15 Open