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  • #901,181
  • May 28, 2014 7:20am May 28, 2014 7:20am
Quoting MaxDoom
then how much is lower 1%, 5%, 10%? it has to be enough to have a material impact otherwise his actions will not alter the outcomes. 10% from 1.40 gives 1.26..... but whatever the number it will be less than now, 1.36 does not make a difference, 1.34 maybe a start, 1.30 more likely, less than 1.30 very desirable..... So now ask yourself when and where would the big investors buy back in?
Let's say this scenario materialize, tomorrow morning the Euro is trading at $1.26 - can u keep it pinned down for at least 3 to 6 months to filler into the economy?! Haven't we been two times below $1.27 and $1.30 - only for the rate to bounce towards a new yearly high?! So, if you were a policy maker - without direct intervention into the exchange rate, markets can buy it back again for a third time. In one way or another, most goods and services being bought on an exchange rate basis, are more or less like option contracts. These contracts may update weekly, monthly or quarterly.

The truth is, Max, the Euro has been suffering a biased market sentiment. You get people shorting the Euro on uptrend / downtrend, whether the ECB introduces a program or not, short is the way to go , what ever happens they continue to short .. sometimes, it simply goes out of hand!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #901,182
  • May 28, 2014 7:23am May 28, 2014 7:23am
I, ask only one question: What if June meeting comes, and he delivers nothing?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #901,183
  • May 28, 2014 7:29am May 28, 2014 7:29am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Let's say this scenario materialize, tomorrow morning the Euro is trading at $1.26 - can u keep it pinned down for at least 3 to 6 months to filler into the economy?! Haven't we been two times below $1.27 and $1.30 - only for the rate to bounce towards a new yearly high?! So, if you were a policy maker - without direct intervention into the exchange rate, markets can buy it back again for a third time. In one way or another, most goods and services being bought on an exchange rate basis, are more or less like option contracts. These...
sure this is a very good point and I hope not to do it on my own the reality of that is that we should of course expect a new price zone for EU and we will have to wait and see what that will be but it is likely to be 300-400 pips as it always is
  • #901,184
  • May 28, 2014 7:31am May 28, 2014 7:31am
Quoting milam
{quote} why?
was last wave of bear, + all timeframes from h4 till m1 have nice divergences
(It's not an advise, use your own head..)
  • #901,185
  • May 28, 2014 7:33am May 28, 2014 7:33am
Quoting Vachus
I, ask only one question: What if June meeting comes, and he delivers nothing?!
chaos

and his credibility shot down
  • #901,186
  • May 28, 2014 7:33am May 28, 2014 7:33am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} IMO. SL to be slight lower, if you are able to absorb the risk. Sometimes broker's spread will spill over the support 3581.
new SL 1.3575
(It's not an advise, use your own head..)
  • #901,187
  • May 28, 2014 7:35am May 28, 2014 7:35am
Quoting saqoli
{quote} if I understand well your idea about UC is still bullish?
UC is very tricky depends on what timeframe you looking at, shes presently trading east aka ping pong yesterdays daily candle is probably the best marker it broke the ll lh scenario with a HH also printed a dogi at support 0849ish, so for now just watching that candle, is today she stays above firstly yesterdays open/close and secondly 0849 I will stay bullish it still touch and go tho,
GC is what confusing things, shes at support gbp strength or Cad weakness could see her rally problem is knowing which, if its cad weakness UC should go bullish USD needs to stay flat to bullish to emphasize any move I have 4 usd prs to gauge what usd is doing, and GC & UC for what cad is doing, and GC Cable and Geppy to see what gbp is doing, and right now they all are starting to squeeze and its a little confusing I am prefering to hold off until they start showing thier intent
having said all that 2 days left for week and May, and I am so so happy with this month I could piss whiskey
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #901,188
  • May 28, 2014 7:38am May 28, 2014 7:38am
Quoting pytaz
{quote} was last wave of bear, + all timeframes from h4 till m1 have nice divergences
Thanks for sharing, I am trying to get in @3617 (3612 was the previous low), if it does not triggered in 30 minutes I will cancel my order.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #901,189
  • May 28, 2014 7:39am May 28, 2014 7:39am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} sure this is a very good point and I hope not to do it on my own the reality of that is that we should of course expect a new price zone for EU and we will have to wait and see what that will be but it is likely to be 300-400 pips as it always is
So, not only the Euro can't be kept below $1.26 ( The 10% theory) - but it can move up 300 / 400 pips?! I think you are down on numbers, the range will be 700 to 800 pips (Approximately 5%) This policy maker who thinks the exchange rate is a problem, is going to be through all of this to the keep rate ranging at $1.30 ( historical average) The end result will be what, less than 15 basis point upticks to inflation rate?!

The numbers don't add up

Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} chaos and his credibility shot down
Okay, quote his promises since we are talking about the future of his credibility ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #901,190
  • May 28, 2014 7:39am May 28, 2014 7:39am
Quoting Vachus
I, ask only one question: What if June meeting comes, and he delivers nothing?!
Then we go up to 1.4100. But he'll deliver something, but not everything that he could.
  • #901,191
  • May 28, 2014 7:44am May 28, 2014 7:44am
Quoting DNTme
{quote} thats a point of view. can be correct. another point of view is this. my bet is in! cheers {image}
i think this post can be a continuation of this earlier post i made, back in january-february:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post7252003

at that time everyone , or almost said euro will go down to 1.31xx - 1.30xx
fokyou forexfactory
  • #901,192
  • May 28, 2014 7:44am May 28, 2014 7:44am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Then we go up to 1.4100. But he'll deliver something, but not everything that he could.
Where do you get this certainty from? He might deliver, he may, perhaps - it remains a possibility ... but are you truly sure he will deliver, based on the available evidence?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #901,193
  • May 28, 2014 7:45am May 28, 2014 7:45am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} So, not only the Euro can't be kept below $1.26 ( The 10% theory) - but it can move up 300 / 400 pips?! I think you are down on numbers, the range will be 700 to 800 pips (Approximately 5%) This policy maker who thinks the exchange rate is a problem, is going to be through all of this to the keep rate ranging at $1.30 ( historical average) The end result will be what, less than 15 basis point upticks to inflation rate?! The numbers don't add up {quote} Okay,quote his promises since we are talking about the future of his credibility...
don't start that crap with me....
  • #901,194
  • May 28, 2014 7:46am May 28, 2014 7:46am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Where do you get this certainty from? He might deliver, he may, perhaps - it remains a possibility ... but are you truly sure he will deliver, based on the available evidence?!
I tend to trust the market. The market is saying down. That's evidence. That may change in the coming days, but currently it's still saying down. If we see significan tbuying before the announcement, then I'll consider that he may not deliver. In short, I believe the market knows best.
  • #901,195
  • May 28, 2014 7:50am May 28, 2014 7:50am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} don't start that crap with me....
I'm not starting anything, enjoy your party ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #901,196
  • May 28, 2014 7:53am May 28, 2014 7:53am
1.7 PIPs from 1.3600 it will come back for it?
  • #901,197
  • May 28, 2014 7:57am May 28, 2014 7:57am
EURUSD 25days ADR is 59pips, current days 36pips that means still their is half move left.

Now all my long entries with EU, GU and AU being really crazy but am breathing more fresh air , NO HOPE, it's all about the patience.
PROredart is not PRO trader
  • #901,198
  • May 28, 2014 7:57am May 28, 2014 7:57am
Quoting lakhan
Currently short 366 ​
Tp hit. Out for +49.
  • #901,199
  • May 28, 2014 7:58am May 28, 2014 7:58am
Quoting lakhan
{quote} Tp hit. Out for +49.
Good trade Lakhan
  • #901,200
  • May 28, 2014 8:00am May 28, 2014 8:00am
moments away from lift off...

tic toc
fokyou forexfactory
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