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  • #901,161
  • May 28, 2014 4:30am May 28, 2014 4:30am
Quoting PROredart
Do you think EURUSD going to below 1.36? EURUSD M15 I'm still holding my long, 1.3619/26/30/34/36 {image}
There's a H&S on 1h chart, but for GBP i think it has touched it's bottom and made a double bottom, don't know if on the H&S the ne will broke.
  • #901,162
  • May 28, 2014 4:30am May 28, 2014 4:30am
Quoting RomanBubenik
{quote} i meant that there was next step to push it down, but for what are buyers waiting, to cross 1.36?, where is their entrance to market?
Well the US is waking up now, lets see if they want to take it up. Any long seems premature currently, unless perhaps you're playing for 10 pips or so (even that would be easier to get today by going short).

Would like to have seen those stops taken below 1.36 though and down to 1.359 at least
  • #901,163
  • May 28, 2014 4:35am May 28, 2014 4:35am
Tomorrow or Friday should be reversal day. Icing on the cake today between today and tomorrow before reversal for markets for this week. Trying to call top or bottom will be hard though. At the moment the SPX500 and DAX are on crack, once that wears off them sell positions should pay nicely. I still reckon that the Euro will head over 1.37 by next week. Time will tell
  • #901,164
  • May 28, 2014 4:36am May 28, 2014 4:36am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} its not cable but GC shes been ranging for 18ish weeks this is 4 hr shes flirting with the bottom, I have a little dilemma because cable is falling and her monthly is not looking too bad, so prefer gbp weakness to continue, and UC is trying to gain traction with what could be a temp bottom and now GC is flirting with the bottom of her present 4hr / daily range considering usd stays flat so for CAD weakness should see GC and UC rally GBP weakness Cable& GC fall usd strength will off course accentuate any moves and weakness will dull any moves...
this is GC weekly and can see the 18 weeks of ranging little yellow box ( as above) is put into perspective, Im thinking the breakout will be more important, problem is as per chart this girl has a habit of ranging for long periods, albeit the breakouts has been generally decent moves
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GC weekly.png Size: 44 KB
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  • #901,165
  • May 28, 2014 4:41am May 28, 2014 4:41am
new long at 1.3606
SL 1.3580
TP 1.3692
(It's not an advise, use your own head..)
  • #901,166
  • May 28, 2014 4:48am May 28, 2014 4:48am
Nice buying now
  • #901,167
  • May 28, 2014 4:49am May 28, 2014 4:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the risk of anything with a unknown outcome is gambling. some take issue with their dad being called a motherfucker too. its all the same
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #901,168
  • May 28, 2014 4:53am May 28, 2014 4:53am
placed a buy stop order @ 3617, risking 18 pips
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #901,169
  • May 28, 2014 4:58am May 28, 2014 4:58am
Quoting Z3iz3i
Afternoon, Looks not much interest on markets today, tomorrow is chf, eur holiday. If want to see a bounce on EURUSD, cable must find bottom first, first estimate around 1.6740/50. After that to see if selling GBP against CHF continues. As its been lately, wonder if worth waiting.

usd/chf is clearly struggling and I won't be surprised if it drops 50 pips anytime now. since the draghi day it has rallied roughly 270 pips from the low in comparison to euro falling 390 pips. so it is not picking up the euro fall like the way it normally does. won't be suprised to see it fall around 0.9000 which is a major resistance for it.
  • #901,170
  • May 28, 2014 4:59am May 28, 2014 4:59am
Quoting pytaz
new long at 1.3606 SL 1.3580 TP 1.3692
why?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #901,171
  • May 28, 2014 5:00am May 28, 2014 5:00am
a little perspective if we please......

people keep talking about buyers for this pair.... sure at some point buyers will emerge but sure as hell they are not here yet, price has settled at this level for several days if they were here a sensible attempt would have occured by now.

Just look at the daily chart the buy attempts are ringed, you can clearly see that not only did they not get far but they then got their nuts removed... equally look at the weekly pushing a LL

Now think about what is going on..... Draghi is getting ready to take action in June that was in direct response to conversation around the euro strength and price was just below 1.40 of course his decisions will be based on gdp, cpi, etc but his actions will directly impact the euro strength in a negative way.... and as every day goes by the time risk of further downside increases up to that June date

Now think about what that means for EU if he wants a lower strength than 1.40 or lets be fair and say the recent peak zone 1.36-1.40 (see monthly) then how much is lower 1%, 5%, 10%? it has to be enough to have a material impact otherwise his actions will not alter the outcomes. 10% from 1.40 gives 1.26..... but whatever the number it will be less than now, 1.36 does not make a difference, 1.34 maybe a start, 1.30 more likely, less than 1.30 very desirable.....

So now ask yourself when and where would the big investors buy back in? they won't risk a high price for longs before June date and they won't risk 1.36 the downside risk is too large for the upside gain...... you think it can go back to 1.40 ie: +400 pips well that would discount everything draghi said to zero so it is not going to happen anytime soon....

sentiment moves like this don't just get large buyers taking large risk against the trend they will wait for the cheap seats with lower risks at the right time point....

imo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-sbDaily 2014 May 28 A.png Size: 9 KB
  • #901,172
  • May 28, 2014 5:03am May 28, 2014 5:03am
Quoting MaxDoom
a little perspective if we please...... people keep talking about buyers for this pair.... sure at some point buyers will emerge but sure as hell they are not here yet, price has settled at this level for several days if they were here a sensible attempt would have occured by now. Just look at the daily chart the buy attempts are ringed, you can clearly see that not only did they not get far but they then got their nuts removed... equally look at the weekly pushing a LL Now think about what is going on..... Draghi is getting ready to take action...
whatever you have mentioned is already priced in. may be it drops to 1.35 but usd is also traded in this pair and it is a mess
  • #901,173
  • May 28, 2014 5:04am May 28, 2014 5:04am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} this is GC weekly and can see the 18 weeks of ranging little yellow box ( as above) is put into perspective, Im thinking the breakout will be more important, problem is as per chart this girl has a habit of ranging for long periods, albeit the breakouts has been generally decent moves {image}
if I understand well your idea about UC is still bullish?
  • #901,174
  • May 28, 2014 5:12am May 28, 2014 5:12am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} whatever you have mentioned is already priced in. may be it drops to 1.35 but usd is also traded in this pair and it is a mess
Both of you made valid points.. tic toc tic toc.. time will tell
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #901,175
  • May 28, 2014 5:13am May 28, 2014 5:13am
Quoting pytaz
new long at 1.3606 SL 1.3580 TP 1.3692
IMO. SL to be slight lower, if you are able to absorb the risk. Sometimes broker's spread will spill over the support 3581.
  • #901,176
  • May 28, 2014 5:14am May 28, 2014 5:14am
Quoting MaxDoom
a little perspective if we please..... {image}
thats a point of view. can be correct.

another point of view is this. my bet is in!

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurouppp.png Size: 56 KB
fokyou forexfactory
  • #901,177
  • May 28, 2014 5:14am May 28, 2014 5:14am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} whatever you have mentioned is already priced in. may be it drops to 1.35 but usd is also traded in this pair and it is a mess
priced in and positioned in are two different things. The market has positioned itself ready for draghi action, by that I mean that some large long positions have been liquidated, and some significant short positions established to take us to where we are today, and there are limited buyers for all the reasons I previously said, but any June action has not yet been priced in, it can't be because nobody yet knows the extent of it so nobody can yet put a number on it....

anyway we shall see the outcome soon enough
  • #901,178
  • May 28, 2014 5:16am May 28, 2014 5:16am
Quoting DNTme
{quote} thats a point of view. can be correct. another point of view is this. my bet is in! cheers {image}
long time no see, good to see you here
  • #901,179
  • May 28, 2014 5:18am May 28, 2014 5:18am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} long time no see, good to see you here
im here most of time..mean at my desk trading...watching FF...but annoyed most of the time to see all mighty forex masters..thats why i rest quiet and try to learn some from those guys
fokyou forexfactory
  • #901,180
  • May 28, 2014 5:18am May 28, 2014 5:18am
Quoting MaxDoom
a little perspective if we please...... people keep talking about buyers for this pair.... sure at some point buyers will emerge but sure as hell they are not here yet, price has settled at this level for several days if they were here a sensible attempt would have occured by now. Just look at the daily chart the buy attempts are ringed, you can clearly see that not only did they not get far but they then got their nuts removed... equally look at the weekly pushing a LL Now think about what is going on..... Draghi is getting ready to take action...
Been saying similar since yesterday, any long that isn't just for a handful of pips seems premature. Can't be sure it will go down after Draghi, surprises do happen, and although I expect a sharp drop, I think it may then recover in the more medium term back up to levels we're at. If I were a big buyer, I'd be looking at just below 1.35. It's already come down a fair way, so a drop to 1.26 seems too much to me Maxdoom, even 1.3 would take some time getting to. Anyway good post.

The market is expecting big things from Draghi, and although he's likely to do something, as someone else mentioned, it may be less than expected.
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