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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #379,001
  • May 24, 2014 12:00am May 24, 2014 12:00am
got my long EUUS signal that failed.

as old people used to say, failed signal is strongest signal in opposite direction.

Based on that, I have to turn my bias for EU & GB to strong bearish.
  • #379,002
  • May 24, 2014 12:12am May 24, 2014 12:12am
may is not over.

from my stats of failed signals, I actually expect rapid fall.
  • #379,003
  • May 24, 2014 2:59am May 24, 2014 2:59am
Quoting artocarpus
Huge gap down is coming on monday, watch greece votes and draghi speaks, my shorts from 1,689x will stay open If next week break 1,67 to 1,66 there is no return, my target below 1,60 until september vote for scotland independence


why there will be a gap down at monday in your opinion???????
  • #379,004
  • Edited 4:31am May 24, 2014 3:09am | Edited 4:31am
A month ago many trader talking about 1.74 area, and now starting dreaming 1.600, believe me, when it back above 1. 6950, 1.74 will come back live again....
be consistent With your plan...... adaptation with Price action is important but don't easy get trapped with some movement
  • #379,005
  • May 24, 2014 4:47am May 24, 2014 4:47am
Quoting Red Alert
A month ago many trader talking about 1.74 area, and now starting dreaming 1.600, believe me, when it back above 1. 6950, 1.74 will come back live again.... be consistent With your plan...... adaptation with Price action is important but don't easy get trapped with some movement
Hello Red,

Failing to recognise a trend reversal is an account killer, the risk is now to the downside, caution for GU Bulls

This pattern is bearish in nature and signals daily reversal, weekly reversal is beginning to confirm.

The Quantitative Annalists will also tell you that as price has failed to close 1.7 on a daily basis they are net short GU looking for 1.6 -> the swaps are negative so this doesn't meet criteria for a Carry trade however the position trade to 1.6 is valid -> remember bulls go up the stairs and bears go out the window, so the return to 1.6 might be quicker than anticipated but 9 months would be the view, Davit can speak to the fundamentals. All I can tell you is the dollar is showing signs of reversal. The EU top is in and the Euro has reversed, no doubt there. GU is much stronger than EU but the older technician will tell you, when cable tanks it doesn't even take a parachute. The early warning signs of correction are present, not to say you can't make bullish trades, just to say that downside risks must be considered and opportunities to go short for the long haul might be worth thinking about, I would sell bullish reversals when appropriate and be cautious holding longs for more than a few days,

Good luck sir, trade safe

GU Weekly

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  • #379,006
  • May 24, 2014 4:49am May 24, 2014 4:49am
Quoting artocarpus
Huge gap down is coming on monday, watch greece votes and draghi speaks, my shorts from 1,689x will stay open If next week break 1,67 to 1,66 there is no return, my target below 1,60 until september vote for scotland independence
Rubbish, toss substantiated allegations and calls around, add a chart and we'll listen to your case but really try to control your fingers punching nonsense out
  • #379,007
  • May 24, 2014 6:02am May 24, 2014 6:02am
GBP USD COT index topped out and Comms were maxed out @ 100 and reversing now. Notice, blue line turned above 0. Reversal is in place on GBP USD.
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  • #379,008
  • May 24, 2014 6:32am May 24, 2014 6:32am
well I guess he could have been right ,what I found frustrating was no chart with outlook ,whilst it did not work this time
I hope we can see this sucker pattern


Quoting ffleo
{quote} {quote} you won definitely.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #379,009
  • May 24, 2014 6:47am May 24, 2014 6:47am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks! Just be careful that this is not trend reversal but completion of harmonic pattern. Bulls are not done.I am not greedy banking 80% of the swing is good enough for me. Regards
in my view this is a pullback that has much higher probability to become reversal than to push to another high. and i traded it as such.of course anything can happen but i see south as much more probable for number of reasons.
big numbers are our friends...
  • #379,010
  • May 24, 2014 6:49am May 24, 2014 6:49am
Quoting ruffryders
massive bear shark pattern with 127 ratio on GBP USD Weekly. GU is topped out and reversing. the targets will not be met in a snap. However, 6400-6500 is a definite option within 2-3 weeks. {image}
Ultimately, GBP USD will have to test year pivot in 2014, which is 5980. So lot's of room on downside, and upside capped currently @ 7000.
Didn't see that pattern, before I started looking at HTF charts.
  • #379,011
  • Edited May 25, 2014 4:59am May 24, 2014 7:01am | Edited May 25, 2014 4:59am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Hello Red, Failing to recognise a trend reversal is an account killer, the risk is now to the downside, caution for GU Bulls This pattern is bearish in nature and signals daily reversal, weekly reversal is beginning to confirm. The Quantitative Annalists will also tell you that as price has failed to close 1.7 on a daily basis they are net short GU looking for 1.6 -> the swaps are negative so this doesn't meet criteria for a Carry trade however the position trade to 1.6 is valid -> remember bulls go up the stairs and bears go out the window,...
Hi jimmy,
actually I am short also on cable for small lot but we have been shown so many time fail reversal pattern, looks like it will crash thousand pips but suddenly continuing up, as long as the price above daily kumo, for long term bullish trend still valid..
Technically, it is very bearish, daily candle engulfing, ts under ks on Ichi (daily TF and lower confirmed already), some fundamental....yes very reasonable for shorting cable.
Daily RSi is 50.xxx potential pullback area, let see how PA next will be
1.67 - 1.66 is daily kumo, will be strong resistance for The bear...

Thank you very much sir, i will be careful for this reversal sign
Have a nice trade

Regards
R.A
  • #379,012
  • May 24, 2014 9:23am May 24, 2014 9:23am
Quoting Bones
ready to tune in ? {quote}
1-0 to you
  • #379,013
  • May 24, 2014 2:23pm May 24, 2014 2:23pm
A lot of chatter over the airwaves concerning trends, shifts in trends, and where instrument PAs may be heading for the summer.

When I look at the monthly for Cable, I see a top-out on the 76.4 FE, and a possible need for a correction south – in order to produce a 1, 2, 3 play upon the ascending Guppy profile, and its associated inversion north (there always seems to be a pull back when PA pushes through a set of MAs).
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For the monthly FXCM Dollar, this month has seen support on the first red MA/161.8 FE push PA back up. Of course, it remains to be seen if there will be a continuation of this move.
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EU monthly is hard to call, but I’m not surprised, as the elections have troubled a lot of people, and so money is staying out until the dust clears and the new jackboots are seen by the public. I also note that Draghi will be delivering his usual dross on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, so who knows what spanner he may throw into the works.
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EG monthly is interesting to me, owing to the merging of the MAs of the Guppy profile, and the slow, yet steady drop south that has been in progress. I would expect PA to hit the 76.4 FE before any change in direction will be seen.
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My opinion – based on the monthly prints that are coming to a close - is that Cable will fall a little, the FXCM Dollar will move north, and that there will not be much movement upon the positions of the Euro until the end of the month – next week – and which is when the path that Europe looks set to follow, will be established... post-elections. And of course, we will probably see the end of month PA swings as books are balanced. (Which this month, will just so happen to fall on Friday).
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #379,014
  • May 24, 2014 2:34pm May 24, 2014 2:34pm
The weekly and daily charts for the four instruments that I am watching present a slightly different picture for the shorter term potential for trend changes.

For Cable, it would seem that the weekly Guppy profile still holds the potential to provide support on the red MAs. Cable’s daily chart would suggest the same.
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For the FXCM Dollar, the weekly could still provide resistance, but the daily has been breached to the north.
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EU weekly may now find some support upon the red MAs of the Guppy profile, but the daily has been breached south.
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For EG, both the weekly and the daily have been breached south, with some space to fall before hitting any fibs.
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Based upon the current PA of these instruments, when set against their respective Guppy profiles, it could be argued that Cable and EG have the greatest potential to continue within their current trends.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #379,015
  • Edited 7:16pm May 24, 2014 7:00pm | Edited 7:16pm
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  • #379,016
  • May 25, 2014 1:06am May 25, 2014 1:06am
Quoting Red Alert
{quote} Hi jimmy, actually I am short also on cable for small lot but we has been shown so many time fail reversal pattern, looks like it will crash thousand pips but suddenly continuing up, as long as the price above daily kumo, for long term bullish trend still valid.. Technically, it is very bearish, daily candle engulfing, ts under ks on Ichi (daily TF and lower confirmed already), some fundamental....yes very reasonable for shorting cable. Daily RSi is 50.xxx potential pullback area, let see how PA next will be 1.67 - 1.66 is daily kumo, will...
IF we do make a new high Red, I might look at 7260 as a target.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #379,017
  • Edited 4:51am May 25, 2014 4:30am | Edited 4:51am
As of monthly though really not play at this time frame usually, 7042 and 8126 are real limits for bull gu before before the great real 9337. anyways, even the first stop fail held 7042,some other imaginary levels 7120 & 7348 can do as stop for further great down if market really want a stop ( as after huge staggering since 90's to get real direction >down rather only for more staggering activities & so bull go Up & UP in the correction & at the same time usdx also should be in bull mode big, not seeing the chart long time though ) .
lower tf will check later .
thanks
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #379,018
  • May 25, 2014 5:07am May 25, 2014 5:07am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} IF we do make a new high Red, I might look at 7260 as a target.
Yes, the Possibility remain open Sir, but how PA at key resistance will be interesting ......
I will consider buy when daily RSI show reasonable value.... or price hit key resistance (daily kumo)

My method is simple using fibo to know key level, ichimoku to predict next trend also target and RSI for confirmation

Both buy or sell must find their moment with reasonable reason

Good luck IBB
have a nice day for you...

Regards
R.A
  • #379,019
  • Edited 8:44am May 25, 2014 8:29am | Edited 8:44am
Anyone think it´s major top around here?
  • #379,020
  • May 25, 2014 8:58am May 25, 2014 8:58am
Quoting johs
Anyone think it´s major top around here?
Depends what t/f you looking at.

With Draghi speaking later, Euro elections, UK and US both have bank holidays tomorrow I'd sit back and wait a while on cable. I think it will probably go down dragged by the euro but what do I know. As a day trader it doesn't matter too much. Good luck.
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