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  • #900,601
  • May 24, 2014 11:56am May 24, 2014 11:56am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} ish, confirmed {image}
Tom, which category below as Non Commercial and Commercial?

Dealer/Intermediary
Asset Manager/Institutional
Leveraged Funds

Is non Commercial having more impacts on spots price or the total of changes under each column from long to short and vice versa?

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  • #900,602
  • May 24, 2014 1:07pm May 24, 2014 1:07pm
So... Could this be the begging of a strong downtrend for the euro? 1.30 possible in the coming months?
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #900,603
  • May 24, 2014 1:14pm May 24, 2014 1:14pm
Let's do some research, see where it leads us...

Took some pics with Daily, Weekly and Monthly levels (same lines in every TF), historic levels from October 1994 to May 2014. I've uploaded the weekly ones, which may be the best view. Don't mind the dotted lines or the color, this has become kind of a mess.

No matter the TF, levels keep on showing up even 10, 15+ years later. Amazing. With the exception of the 2008-2010 caothic period with capitulation, earthquakes and massive interventions, one thing seems to be somehow constant: whenever a candle crosses one or more levels entirely (meaning the full body), the price will keep on going the same direction. There may be a meaningless PA retrace, but it continues further. On the other side, whenever a candle crosses one or more levels BUT not with its entire body (leaving a wick), price will come back to the other side of that level / levels. This retrace often follows the same rule: if the entire body crosses, it may retrace but continues in the same new direction.

Haven't seen this in all detail, but seems to work for decades, even years before the actual release of the euro. Not big deal with the candle crossing thing, I know, but the pair having massive memory is remarkable.

(If you see s/r levels wthout a line in any pic, it's because those levels seem not to have continuation in the other pics from more recent times, or the opposite)

These are the pics with historic levels:
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  • #900,604
  • May 24, 2014 1:32pm May 24, 2014 1:32pm
Its weekend guys
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Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #900,605
  • May 24, 2014 1:48pm May 24, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting aahmad29
Its weekend guys {image}
So THAT'S why my charts aren't moving. And here I've been smacking my computer all day yelling WAKE UP!! ...

Great picture!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #900,606
  • Edited 2:26pm May 24, 2014 2:05pm | Edited 2:26pm
[quote=Lacunoide;7490178]So... Could this be the begging of a strong downtrend for the euro? 1.30 possible in the coming months?[/quot

13400 is quite possible next week. 1300 is also possible in a few weeks.

Mr Draghi is due to speak on Sunday 6:30pm BST.
  • #900,607
  • May 24, 2014 2:14pm May 24, 2014 2:14pm
hi just wanna ask where i can find eur/usd historical data for 1 hour and 4h like 7 or even more years back,or wchih platform has it .i will be thankfull for information...
  • #900,608
  • May 24, 2014 2:41pm May 24, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting lolipop
hi just wanna ask where i can find eur/usd historical data for 1 hour and 4h like 7 or even more years back,or wchih platform has it .i will be thankfull for information...
MT4 or MT5, register a demo account - with Meta quotes ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #900,609
  • May 24, 2014 5:39pm May 24, 2014 5:39pm
The way i see next week:

http://orcaforex.com/may-started-buy...-1-362-eurusd/
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #900,610
  • May 24, 2014 6:43pm May 24, 2014 6:43pm
Oh, he was right all the time...

I knew it, I just didn't see it.

I think I'm seeing it now. You really ought to look carefully into the past.

You start to "see things".

I found mine looking at year 2000 charts, Daily and 4H. It's easier in times with high volatility, that made the trick for me. Then I went straight from 2000 to 2014, much different environment. You only have to adapt to it. But I did needed a close look into the past, also needed to draw the lines for repeating levels. They also tell something.

And I also see why one may see different things than the next guy.

Some spots are clear as sunlight. Some, you choose them 'cause you see 'em. The next guy sees others.

Different ways to play the same game.

Maybe, just maybe... Lesson 1 learned.

1+1=2... always and anywhere.

And your ass starts to pull out numbers 'till it hurts...

...working numbers. They allow you to target, to BE and to be wrong a few times, but to be wrong losing the least amount.

I just wish I had 4H and 1H charts from the 90's, I would like to see story repeating itself and currencies' mammoth memory
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  • #900,611
  • May 24, 2014 7:57pm May 24, 2014 7:57pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} These two points do not really go together, as far as economics are concern. If an economy doesn't export, the trade balance will become negative - as net imports will cause capital leakage. (Outflows) This creates an imbalance demand for foreign currencies to exchange for goods and services. As you see, the last 40+ years, this has been the main driver to further weaken the U.S Dollar. So, only if you manage to grow a surplus with a positive growth ratio - then you can have both.. * I do not really see a strong Dollar, is a priority to...
they go hand in hand, both affect the usd, and thats the subject in hand. to your point, if the usd remains weak. the ez will be tethered to compete in manufacturing even further. regardless how you float it, cheaper energy has the greatest affect. so the ecb will have to figure out a way to make products competitive. large companies dont care where they set up shop as far as the bottom line is concerned.

i am talking about energy intensive ones. those using cheaper energy will be able to undercut the competition with higher energy cost. they will have more margin to work with. those working for these companies will have more leverage for higher wages. those with higher energy cost will have the opposite for the company and worker. so those will be tethered on standard of living overall.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,612
  • May 24, 2014 8:12pm May 24, 2014 8:12pm
GBPJPY could be targeting 167.971, then 166.141

AUDUSD could be targeting 0.90719, then 0.89424

GBPUSD could be targeting 1.65989, then 1.64665

EURAUD could be targeting 1.45615, then 1.41383 Also have short term targets upwards, they could be 1.49892 and 1.51055

USDCAD could be targeting 1.06975, then 1.05810

EURUSD, retracement still needed. Very short term, could be 1.36555, then possibly 1.36690

Off, my ass hurts...
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  • #900,613
  • May 24, 2014 8:25pm May 24, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting Goodvalley
AUDUSD could be targeting 0.90719, then 0.89424

EURAUD could be targeting 1.45615, then 1.41383 Also have short term targets upwards, they could be 1.49892
and 1.51055

EURUSD, retracement still needed. Very short term, could be 1.36555, then possibly 1.36690
Close enough but those three don't rhyme
  • #900,614
  • May 24, 2014 8:43pm May 24, 2014 8:43pm
I know, but this is Lesson 2!!!




Saw the mystifying "1.3102 before 1.4146" thing, in my broker numbers this is 1.31027 before 1.41478.

Then, I saw the "miss by one pip", in my case that's 1.31040, so 1.3 pip.

Do we really need that precission? I mean... wow!
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  • #900,615
  • May 24, 2014 8:58pm May 24, 2014 8:58pm
Quoting Goodvalley
I know, but this is Lesson 2!!! Saw the mystifying "1.3102 before 1.4146" thing, in my broker numbers this is 1.31027 before 1.41478. Then, I saw the "miss by one pip", in my case that's 1.31040, so 1.3 pip. Do we really need that precission? I mean... wow!
i assume your talking to me. i missed that entry by that much.. sometimes it is just that precise.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,616
  • May 24, 2014 9:41pm May 24, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i assume your talking to me. i missed that entry by that much.. sometimes it is just that precise.
Yes Gator, I just saw you while I posted those numbers from different pairs.

So you still think we need to go there, not voided by any means if going to 1.414xx?
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  • #900,617
  • May 24, 2014 9:52pm May 24, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting Goodvalley
{quote} Yes Gator, I just saw you while I posted those numbers from different pairs. So you still think we need to go there, not voided by any means if going to 1.414xx?
i dont think anything. i will just say, it will do that very often
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,618
  • Edited 11:43pm May 24, 2014 11:29pm | Edited 11:43pm
Quoting Goodvalley
I know, but this is Lesson 2!!! Saw the mystifying "1.3102 before 1.4146" thing, in my broker numbers this is 1.31027 before 1.41478. Then, I saw the "miss by one pip", in my case that's 1.31040, so 1.3 pip. Do we really need that precission? I mean... wow!
Little strange, but we do need such precision. I have exprerienced it many times. Every time it breaks any such level by one or two pips, I would think maybe this time it was just an overshoot..........and guess what? It keeps on going further beyond that level, sometimes after a couple of bounces. Figures should be little different with different brokers, also, many times it violates a level few times before either finally breaking or bouncing from it, but these level work to precision. Logic of why it happens this way is very simple. Pending orders with brokers. They have millions of pending orders from their clients most on certain price levels and usually to be placed right after market opens. These price levels are not too many. Pending orders trigger at these few defined levels and again more such orders when price comes back near these levels. Several borkers execute millions of orders exactly at same levels in a matter of an hour or two .
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #900,619
  • May 25, 2014 12:01am May 25, 2014 12:01am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Little strange, but we do need such precision. I have exprerienced it many times. Every time it breaks any such level by one or two pips, I would think maybe this time it was just an overshoot..........and guess what? It keeps on going further beyond that level, sometimes after a couple of bounces. Figures should be little different with different brokers, also, many times it violates a level few times before either finally breaking or bouncing from it, but these level work to precision. Logic of why it happens this way is very simple. Pending...
Those who have any reservations may try the following for just one week. This little experiment may place them from amateur to professional category.

1. Mark certain key levels near current pa. These levels could be historical support/resistance, weekly or daily high, low, open, close, etc. If not sure, use Gator's posted levels.

2. Wait for a) London Open, b) Asia Close, and c) NY Open

3. At a), b) and c), above, watch the market. Try to see what buyers and sellers are trying to do at these levels in that moment. Watch the market as it is acting now. The best way to look at what market is doing now is to move to a smaller timeframe 5m or so.

4. Based on what you watch in present moment, try to figure out what is about to happen.

5. Don't trade, just make your guesses and later see if you were right

6. Practice this until you understand how market works.

7. Once you get an understanding of the market behaviour, start putting small trades.

8. In few months you will be a trader who understands the market and benefits from this knowledge and not the one who just gambles away his/her money predicting the unpredictable.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #900,620
  • Edited 12:50am May 25, 2014 12:34am | Edited 12:50am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Those who have any reservations may try the following for just one week. This little experiment may place them from amateur to professional category. 1. Mark certain key levels near current pa. These levels could be historical support/resistance, weekly or daily high, low, open, close, etc. If not sure, use Gator's posted levels. 2. Wait for a) London Open, b) Asia Close, and c) NY Open 3. At a), b) and c), above, watch the market. Try to see what buyers and sellers are trying to do at these levels in that moment. Watch the market as it...
London and NY are closed on Monday but some news from EU on Sunday. What do you think? How this market will behave until Tuesday London Open or Tuesday NY Open? Should we trade during this period of time? If we decide to trade, what should we trade and what should be our strategy?

I closed all my positions except one longer term before Friday NY open................. They are going to grind many like wheat in a flour mill.
Later many trader may say, see! we told you! These precise levels are just a myth they get violated very often.
The Thief of Wall Street
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