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  • #900,581
  • May 23, 2014 3:09pm May 23, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} maybe its me in a state with 4% unemployment, one that deals in energy
Gator. You moved to Texas?!?
  • #900,582
  • May 23, 2014 3:13pm May 23, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting Jcandle
{quote} The drop you were expecting did actually happen when the news hit the wire but also if you know anything about Elliot wave personalities you also know why the market behavior is displaying as such. I also think that Monday will show some bear pressure just to see if the bulls are really there and that will be in essence the drop you were expecting but you best be smart about entry. If the bulls are there they will make their presence known and if you hesitate you will miss the rally.
I don't see any drop at 10:00 am from my charts, actually I have a spike up...however I take what you're saying that this is actually explained by EW. Don't know exactly what you mean but I will check it over the week end
  • #900,583
  • May 23, 2014 3:16pm May 23, 2014 3:16pm
Gidday EUR/US

Kept thinking all week we would

see a bounce to 1.38 etc

So I chased down some shorts

Still got one running to 1.357

Got a few longs under water

A few days off sucking it up

an a good kick up the ass

will do wonders for your trading:nerd:
  • #900,584
  • May 23, 2014 3:19pm May 23, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I don't see any drop at 10:00 am from my charts, actually I have a spike up...however I take what you're saying that this is actually explained by EW. Don't know exactly what you mean but I will check it over the week end
The drop happened with the 4 am EST news flagged Red for high impact. Yes EW is more then just market structure pattern recognition. It also explains the personalities of the traders involved at certain waves.
Taking responsibility means believing that your outcomes are self-generated
  • #900,585
  • May 23, 2014 3:31pm May 23, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting spinozagr
{quote} So many books talking about overtrading... let me have a different opinion... Take the probabilities with you...and you can open as many positions as you want to.... in any pair/commodity/stock etc
I actually agree with you when you put it in those terms, I just meant it as a general advice, if you have enough time to look for all those high probability setups then it's fine, but you know it's not the majority of the practices we see everyday! We say no overtrading for people who think trading more equals more income.
Cheers.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #900,586
  • May 23, 2014 3:31pm May 23, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting rehorst
{quote} Ausgezeichnet! Would you mind sharing some of your method? I know you've mentioned EMAs. Thanks.
Well the EMA thing is easy, it is the EMA 200.

For the rest I use a modified spike system starting from dailies down to M5. I will not post it here because it was coded for me. ZigZags with various values also help for a quick glance to overview the situation.

Furthermore horizontal lines for EOD ( one of these was the 1.3611-14 where pa turned today).

The same horizontal lines on a different template for weeks so they are EOW. These are quite good for the bigger targets and probabilities.

Some sort of channel stuff and diagonal trendlines, sometimes good for probabilities, but then again, we all know they are overriden when you donīt expect it, so I only treat them as a "suggestion".

ATM I am checking out MTF indicators and stumbled over some significant things that have to do with time, but it is too early to say something about it.
  • #900,587
  • May 23, 2014 3:36pm May 23, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} the only way to know you are overtrading is by checking your losses....it would be nice to know why bulls defended this particular level today...a drop was very much due, what happened instead? nothing...so frustrating....It looks like we should write off the word "obvious" from our FX dictionary
80% of the moves take part in 20% of the time, that's how I got used to this type of PA
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #900,588
  • May 23, 2014 3:48pm May 23, 2014 3:48pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} 80% of the moves take part in 20% of the time, that's how I got used to this type of PA
20% is a very optimistic value.

Every time I go to the toilet I fear that I have missed the move of the week and that the train has left the station without me
  • #900,589
  • May 23, 2014 3:53pm May 23, 2014 3:53pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} 20% is a very optimistic value. Every time I go to the toilet I fear that I have missed the move of the week and that the train has left the station without me
Eat or Shit Must have your Laptop with you
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #900,590
  • Edited 4:35pm May 23, 2014 4:25pm | Edited 4:35pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Gator, if what u say will materialize - I'm afraid the U.S. Dollar will devalue even further ... you can't be an exporter, with an expensive currency while running a USSR well fare state and incredible amount of deficits. So, by all means start repatriate the American factories or what left of if back to USA ..
when you are the largest consumer, the need to export is less. products are consumed within. we had an economy second to none 40+ years ago when this was true. second, the law of price = demand may make prices lower for the u.s. to export. the energy difference price will still be built in the finished product. its not just the price, its the shipping cost also. believe it, or not, it cost to place oil on a ship to china. then it cost again to ship it back to the u.s. as a finished product. fill in any country you like. a manufactured product from a country with cheap energy only has to be shipped once to the consuming country. if the consumer is in the energy nation, it saves that much more. add in tax dollars from the unemployed brother-in-law with a job now consuming. i say energy is a 2x multiple. its actually better if employment is added. because it adds to consumption. with added employment with consumption from within = tax dollars. we have been bull-shitted from the wallmarts to think we cant build our own cheap crap.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,591
  • May 23, 2014 4:30pm May 23, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting rehorst
{quote} Gator. You moved to Texas?!?
i am in Sanity. ever been there?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,592
  • May 23, 2014 4:38pm May 23, 2014 4:38pm
later, enough shop
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,593
  • May 23, 2014 6:56pm May 23, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting milam
{quote} If I may say...... you bought when most were selling.......you need to be patient ......if you wanted to buy, wait for a break of the tl and a test of the recent low, that will be the best option.......I am just sharing.....meant to be a constructive criticism....

Bingo.....
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #900,594
  • May 23, 2014 7:08pm May 23, 2014 7:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when you are the largest consumer, the need to export is less. products are consumed within. we had an economy second to none 40+ years ago when this was true. second, the law of price = demand may make prices lower for the u.s. to export.
These two points do not really go together, as far as economics are concern. If an economy doesn't export, the trade balance will become negative - as net imports will cause capital leakage. (Outflows) This creates an imbalance demand for foreign currencies to exchange for goods and services. As you see, the last 40+ years, this has been the main driver to further weaken the U.S Dollar. So, only if you manage to grow a surplus with a positive growth ratio - then you can have both..

* I do not really see a strong Dollar, is a priority to the Feds as the equity and bonds market performance - over the short term, while medium and longer terms more concerned with price stability.
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"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #900,595
  • Edited May 24, 2014 12:55am May 23, 2014 11:55pm | Edited May 24, 2014 12:55am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} These two points do not really go together, as far as economics are concern. If an economy doesn't export, the trade balance will become negative - as net imports will cause capital leakage. {image}
it looks like US strength has been coming back last few years though, which explains all that 10 years bond buying occurring now. However, most of that is due to an artificially weak USD but they will need to keep it down if they want to grow further which is why I don't believe in a strong dollar soon. Give this pair another week and that will be it.

According to COT there was no EURUSD bull around last week...so next week another drop is high possibility. Bank holiday in UK on Monday so expect high volatility too.
  • #900,596
  • May 24, 2014 3:06am May 24, 2014 3:06am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} S&P Daily chart {image}
I have a feeling that if we take out 1803-1904 we head to 1920-1940. Most likely between 1930-1940 before correcting. This market is about as rigged as it gets.
  • #900,597
  • May 24, 2014 3:55am May 24, 2014 3:55am
Quoting Greener
{quote} it looks like US strength has been coming back last few years though, which explains all that 10 years bond buying occurring now. However, most of that is due to an artificially weak USD but they will need to keep it down if they want to grow further which is why I don't believe in a strong dollar soon. Give this pair another week and that will be it. According to COT there was no EURUSD bull around last week...so next week another drop is high possibility. Bank holiday in UK on Monday so expect high volatility too.
Above, i was talking about the purchasing power not the exchange rate. It was my mistake not to clarify the short, medium and long terms are in YEARS.

On the EURUSD thing, i think the Dollar index explain it quite insightful in that regard:

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It broke yesterday the range highs and held there, can it find buyers at 80.33? This would be on EURUSD around 1.3635-40?! If the bears managed to defend this line and force the price below - it may continue plunging ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #900,598
  • May 24, 2014 4:53am May 24, 2014 4:53am
Quoting tomspin
Sentimental shift happened on the speculative side of the market, commercials began to buy euro all we need is now serious comitment from the non comms to confirm bear market, I do not judge atm as talking down currency and taking official action is totally different thing, Again look at the balanced market between speculative side, happened only during trend shift {image}
ish, confirmed
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swing it!
  • #900,599
  • May 24, 2014 11:04am May 24, 2014 11:04am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} today my broker wrote to me to be prepared for a huge gap down at next opening of about 100 pips, and more than this for the indices. This could be due to the Eu elections and the victory in some countries of the anti Euro parties. WTF
Europe Goes to the Polls as EU Skeptics Poised to Gain
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...d-to-gain.html


also E/U closed below the 200 Daily EMA on friday...


.
  • #900,600
  • May 24, 2014 11:13am May 24, 2014 11:13am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} ish, confirmed {image}
Tom positioning already flipped, when we had a DB top. now the move will only gain traction.
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