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  • #900,221
  • May 22, 2014 6:11pm May 22, 2014 6:11pm
Quoting Goodvalley
I've started a DEMO account and will try to get into lesson one, just trying to re-learn from scratch. Need a re-thinking so I stopped what I was doing in real. Don't know if this is right, this will be my first serious attempt on it. Buy at 1.36565, S/L at 1.36440, 2 orders: one for BE at 1.36700 and 2nd targets 1.38300. It would be great to know if I'm on the right track. {image} {image}
Its impt to know that DEMO will almost (always) be a demo of your feelings.

WOuld be better if you could quote reasons for trade and reasons for SL levels.

Trains to be instinctive and intuitive.

Good Luck in honing...
Go with the flow.
  • #900,222
  • May 22, 2014 6:24pm May 22, 2014 6:24pm
Trying some 10 pips short during Asia session shouldn't be too risky given overall bearishness. tp 13646
  • #900,223
  • May 22, 2014 6:34pm May 22, 2014 6:34pm
Quoting ahteddy
{quote} Its impt to know that DEMO will almost (always) be a demo of your feelings. WOuld be better if you could quote reasons for trade and reasons for SL levels. Trains to be instinctive and intuitive. Good Luck in honing...
Yes, I know of course. Paper is paper. I'm doing something else in real, but I have the feeling this may help me on that. If it fits in what I see, I'll be more than happy. Just trying to see it this makes sense. I did have some looks at it in the past but more for curiosity than anything.

Ok, reasons: Daily, we didn't have a rebound that we get normally. This could go to around the 1.38200-30 zone, where is the 50% of the last move. Watching the mf's for reference. S/L are yesterday's low, reasonable distance for me.
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  • #900,224
  • May 22, 2014 6:58pm May 22, 2014 6:58pm
Yes Ken, I think this is what I do in both charts.

Daily is the last move from the top and 1H is last big leg. I was trying to find Gator's 1.3639 UM, so I found it there.

Your 1.36451 is 1.36448 on my charts. Yes, it did it also on May 15th and 2 pips lower on Feb 27th. Trying to put the pieces together. This is not by chance, never was. But drawing the levels is really hard, I mean knowing the Hi-Lo points. Your comments are more than welcomed.
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  • #900,225
  • May 22, 2014 7:05pm May 22, 2014 7:05pm
Oops, you changed 1.36451 for 1.36213, now I don't see it as clearly.
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  • #900,226
  • May 22, 2014 7:15pm May 22, 2014 7:15pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I edited my above post to 1.36213 as the next support. I think leave Gator alone, he is using different POR (Point Of Reference) from mine and it doesn't matter where his POR are. You just need to use a range as your POR then observe. It probably will take days or years to see it. I have been observing it for years and still amazed at the Golden Ratios.
Yes, I've read his posts for years, although never got serious with his technique. I know he doesn't want to be anybody's nanny, no problem at all. But it is nice to try to know if one is on the same page or not.

I know this kind of techniques allows you to discover some PA predictive behaviour and hidden reference levels, so that's what I'm trying to look at, but you never know if you're doing the right way.
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  • #900,227
  • May 22, 2014 7:23pm May 22, 2014 7:23pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I edited my above post to 1.36213 as the next support. I think leave Gator alone, he is using different POR (Point Of Reference) from mine and it doesn't matter where his POR are. You just need to use a range as your POR then observe. It probably will take days or years to see it. I have been observing it for years and still amazed at the Golden Ratios. For example below for A/U it hit the levels to the pip Post 899,519 Quoting...
I remember that post from the other day, but couldn't figure out the exact levels to recreate the move. I have to pick some long sequence moves and see how they have developed. Time to study a lot.
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  • #900,228
  • May 22, 2014 7:43pm May 22, 2014 7:43pm
Quoting aahmad29
According to OANDA indicator, EU market is uncertain. {image}
This information is useless because it is too subjective.
You think market is confused, I say it shows it is balanced.
For market to move it needs imbalance.
Imbalance requires market sentiment to change, or data release shift, or market movers to enter, or fundamental shift.
We are none of the above'
PA is never ever confused it knows exactly what it is doing, just because we seem confused doesn't make the market / pa confused.

We as market movers are like a flea on a elephants buttock.

All we have to make a decision is charts, and generally 1 timeframe will be screaming sell next timeframe will be screaming buy, this is where flip flop merchants go crazy.

My friendly advice is to get the hell out of the noisy, ping pong small timeframes maybe go 4 or 12 hr I think 4hr is best because it gives 2hrs before and after each market session open, many say the premium time to be trading, this should be enough time for you to gauge who or what is moving the market (imbalance) then go smaller timeframe to try hone entry then go back to 4hr for target sl calculations then switch platform off, just try this once each Brit open 1 trade - and see if trading improve

My weekly rant is over, enjoy the weekend
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #900,229
  • Edited 8:21pm May 22, 2014 8:08pm | Edited 8:21pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} This information is useless because it is too subjective. You think market is confused, I say it shows it is balanced. For market to move it needs imbalance. Imbalance requires market sentiment to change, or data release shift, or market movers to enter, or fundamental shift. ....
That is the basic thinking of market profile.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #900,230
  • May 22, 2014 8:18pm May 22, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} That is the basic think of market profile. {image}
place your swing entry and exit in the imbalanced area. Scalp in the balanced area, because the market chop there, you often have a chance to exit your trade without a loss. If you scalp in the imbalanced area where market moves large and fast, you may end up with a big loss if you bet wrong.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #900,231
  • May 22, 2014 8:26pm May 22, 2014 8:26pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} This information is useless because it is too subjective. You think market is confused, I say it shows it is balanced. For market to move it needs imbalance. Imbalance requires market sentiment to change, or data release shift, or market movers to enter, or fundamental shift. We are none of the above' PA is never ever confused it knows exactly what it is doing, just because we seem confused doesn't make the market / pa confused. We as market movers are like a flea on a elephants buttock. All we have to make a decision is charts, and generally...
Well put!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #900,232
  • May 22, 2014 8:40pm May 22, 2014 8:40pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} That is the basic thinking of market profile. {image}
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #900,233
  • May 22, 2014 9:12pm May 22, 2014 9:12pm
If you really want to trade good never lose sight of weekly chart. For example, one good level on weekly is 1.3672. See what happens there.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #900,234
  • May 22, 2014 9:34pm May 22, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} That is the basic thinking of market profile. {image}
yes and in there is US buying and selling at the wrong times

this is EU yearly candles on monthly chart is looks messy but its actually not to bad

far right red vertical line is this month May ma,s 50 &200 only of interest where they relate to this line
200 is still strong bull, but 50 is rolling over, big question is can bear roll over down through 200 which could indicate a 3year trend roll, time will tell

range is 10years HL

note - the mids of the rally and fall fib 50 or mids that was the target zone for May entries, red rectangle 1st target is 50 or mid of last years candle I have a fence at the 76 fib which thus far printed this years low already next south target is last years open then low
often if pa pulls back to and exceeds fib 76 will be a 100% retrace

so presently May is in play and the present monthly candle is looking very profitable, she didnt break the fib 50 as above (red box), if she flies north and exceeds the 50 fib (red rectangle) there are minor resistance above but the main one of interest is the 76 fib (orange rectangle) if pa exceeds there is high probability of full retrace to 10year h
for now bears are clearly in control, grinding away at the bulls 3 year rally, nice battle to watch on monthly murder on under daily
if dont understand it is ok just ignore it, to me is important for this years may trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #900,235
  • May 22, 2014 9:44pm May 22, 2014 9:44pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yes and in there is US buying and selling at the wrong times this is EU yearly candles on monthly chart is looks messy but its actually not to bad far right red vertical line is this month May ma,s 50 &200 only of interest where they relate to this line 200 is still strong bull, but 50 is rolling over, big question is can bear roll over down through 200 which could indicate a 3year trend roll, time will tell range is 10years HL note - the mids of the rally and fall fib 50 or mids that was the target zone for May entries, red...

oops wrong timeframe dailly instead of monthly, this is on monthly chart, everything stays the same except where pa is in relation to ma.s for May - red virtical line far right, and present pa is horizontal red line, can see pa is flirting wit 50sma which is confluence with fib 76 of last years candle (orange box little) also this years present low, etc etc, BBL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu yearly monthly chart.png Size: 129 KB
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  • #900,236
  • May 22, 2014 10:11pm May 22, 2014 10:11pm
It seems like the only option on the EURUSD is still to wait for it to clear the 200 Day EMA in either direction.
  • #900,237
  • May 22, 2014 10:47pm May 22, 2014 10:47pm
Good morning everybody!

Looks like it didn't move much the past 9hrs. All of my indicators are saying it should go up and I have a very high probability bias indicating that it will go up (the red zone in the heat map). I'm already long on EU. I plan to pick up some more trades if it spikes down. It's possible that it might shoot up. My TP isn't that high, its set right below 1.3686. Planning to trail up based on activity. Let's see how the market will play out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #900,238
  • May 22, 2014 10:48pm May 22, 2014 10:48pm
Quoting estrategafx
It seems like the only option on the EURUSD is still to wait for it to clear the 200 Day EMA in either direction.
Yes, I agree. If not already commited to a trade, waiting is a good strategy. It is possible for it to drop by many pips down as well. The current pattern is pretty risky I feel like. Just mho :-)
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #900,239
  • May 22, 2014 11:00pm May 22, 2014 11:00pm
So... people... need your opinion. Ruffy said that aud going down bla bla bla... so that mean its good i didnt close my longs aud?
  • #900,240
  • May 22, 2014 11:04pm May 22, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting saver0
Good morning everybody! Looks like it didn't move much the past 9hrs. All of my indicators are saying it should go up and I have a very high probability bias indicating that it will go up (the red zone in the heat map). I'm already long on EU. I plan to pick up some more trades if it spikes down. It's possible that it might shoot up. My TP isn't that high, its set right below 1.3686. Planning to trail up based on activity. Let's see how the market will play out {image}
What's your background Savor? You seem to be really good trader. Thanks for the analysis.
The Thief of Wall Street
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