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  • #201
  • May 22, 2014 8:46am May 22, 2014 8:46am
Quoting jeffmichaels
{quote} And out again, nice profit before USD data & ZAR later. USDTRY closed at that 2.0830 SL level Citiboy spoke off as it started to stall and with this data coming out better to pocket some profits. {image} {image}
Appearently ZAR data already out :
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  • #202
  • May 22, 2014 9:11am May 22, 2014 9:11am
Quoting jeffmichaels
{quote} And out again, nice profit before USD data & ZAR later. USDTRY closed at that 2.0830 SL level Citiboy spoke off as it started to stall and with this data coming out better to pocket some profits. {image} {image}

Nice trading.....I closed a little early as price actually went down to my next level - actually Citiboys one.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #203
  • May 22, 2014 9:26am May 22, 2014 9:26am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Nice trading.....I closed a little early as price actually went down to my next level - actually Citiboys one.....
Thanks, reentered some smaller positions as the rate decision had already been announced and that was my reason for getting out, in the green by a little. I think I'll leave these on till the close if i can put their SL to BE within an hour or so.

EDIT: looking at that 0680 level again as a first target, if we can break 0780
  • #204
  • May 22, 2014 10:16am May 22, 2014 10:16am
Inserted Video


Hopefully the video makes it onto the thread. I haven't posted one in a while and I can't remember if I embed it or just post the URL (got it). Anyways...Basci did it, lowered the one-week repo rate by half a percent. I grabbed this video for the "oh no you didn't" factor. Also, the CBRT is full of surprises like the crust of the magic pizza.

When the market gets surprised and the direction seems obvious, its never that easy the day of. Many traders enter into large positions, many of whom get squeezed out. I believe that is what we are seeing this morning. I expect that the Lira will weaken, though I could see this go the other way was well. Basci only lowered rates by half a percent. In January he increased the one-week repo to 10% from 4.5%. So this move is really quite insubstantial when viewed with that in mind. I could see investors interpreting this small move as Basci maintaining control of the policy while humoring Erdogan with such a small reduction--a disturbing scenario and an unlikely one. On the other hand, inflation is still high and for the cynical investor this really hurts the CBRT's credibility. I fall in line with those who are cynical. After the market shakes out everyone who thought this would magically and immediately weaken the Lira are shaken out (free cheap liquidity), I think we'll see a gradual weakening of the Lira. I believe that the analysts who have been calling for 2.25 by year end are correct. This whole situation could get interesting as I'm sure Turkey will defend the Lira on the open market so caution will be in order.

I've opened a small buy order down near 2.08 after the reach below the long wick we saw in the last two hours. I will back off and let the market jockey for positioning and stabilize if it goes much below 2.08. Just glanced back at my chart and we are back to 2.0850 already. We'll see if this lasts. My first target will be 2.15. Good luck everyone. This is going to be interesting to watch the next several trading days.
  • #205
  • May 22, 2014 11:45am May 22, 2014 11:45am
Wise words there from Scotty. I was originally trading this in relatively small size given that I just started being active in this pair this year. I am upping to a bit more significant position size here at 2.08, with a relatively tight stop at around 2.0740. This 2.08-2.0830 was the level I wanted to add. I was usually selling on the rallies this past week or two so I have scalped for some okay profits, but I think there may be fundamental reasoning to get long this for the move to my eventualy target of the 2.15 level.

Spreads in this pair are a bit volatile so you kind of have to eyeball the chart, nothing is precise. The green line was my interest level. If we blow thru there and continue lower I will have to get out and reevaluate.
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  • #206
  • May 22, 2014 12:54pm May 22, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting Citiboy
Wise words there from Scotty. I was originally trading this in relatively small size given that I just started being active in this pair this year.
Provided some free cheap liquidity.... just added short , dont think it will go over 2.0830, and see 2.0680 first.
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  • #207
  • May 22, 2014 3:11pm May 22, 2014 3:11pm
Yeah you might be right. The market may not care about half a percentage point, but it has reacted harshly to the unorthodox policies in the past. I'll be curious to see what London does to end the week.
  • #208
  • May 23, 2014 3:04am May 23, 2014 3:04am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah you might be right. The market may not care about half a percentage point, but it has reacted harshly to the unorthodox policies in the past. I'll be curious to see what London does to end the week.
I cut them loose for a 1.5% loss, I have to leave the house and with these pairs I rather be present. Happy trading today folks, & have a great weekend!
  • #209
  • May 23, 2014 3:15am May 23, 2014 3:15am
Quoting jeffmichaels
{quote} I cut them loose for a 1.5% loss, I have to leave the house and with these pairs I rather be present. Happy trading today folks, & have a great weekend!
Agreed, I dont like to go far with UsdTry positions open - or I take partials - as I have just done having bought ~the BRN in FH.....enjoy your W/E....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #210
  • May 23, 2014 10:17am May 23, 2014 10:17am
Bailed out of TRY and ZAR for now.

Was able to take a small partial this morning at 2.0905 but this reversal in the Dollar is annoying me. USD has traded like crap vs everything except the Euro. 2 year yields glued to 0.35%.


Until that 2y moves all these pairs will be stuck in these damned down channels.
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  • #211
  • May 23, 2014 10:52am May 23, 2014 10:52am
I had to close my long positions as well. I have been in profit whole week but Friday session burned me. Need to think about my usdtry trading strategy on the weekend.
  • #212
  • May 23, 2014 6:46pm May 23, 2014 6:46pm
Well, what an odd week, not all bad. It's very tough to discern at this point exactly how the market is going to digest this rate cut. That large bull flag on the larger time frames is trying to breakout. I get the sense that USDTRY is being manipulated. There was no knee-jerk reaction whatsoever after the surprise news. This is very odd to me and makes me wonder if there was lira dumping that was all absorbed--this is forex so we can't see volumes. The CBRT can only do so much to intervene in the markets, they did so several times as the lira was continually sold off to its historical low. They made small dents that were continually faded out. In my mind, this rate cut can't just be shrugged off. Just look at the lack of confidence we saw in the lira appreciation prior to the rate cut. The demand for this thing was and is shrinking. The local markets within Turkey got a boost from this rate cut and there could have been inflows for local investments but I think the longer term will turn this thing upwards. Monday is a holiday here in the US so I'll stay flat until Tuesday most likely. I think we'll gather the stops under the lows we made today and then hopefully see some buying. More on that later. Have a great weekend everyone.
  • #213
  • May 24, 2014 8:12am May 24, 2014 8:12am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Agreed, I dont like to go far with UsdTry positions open - or I take partials - as I have just done having bought ~the BRN in FH.....enjoy your W/E....
Thanks I am

Anyway, I ended up taking a smaller as usual position in USDZAR after popping back in from my appointments and seeing what I was missing . I took it smaller as usual as I was just popping in for 15 mins between appointments, missed my TP by 50 to 80 pips (spread at low unknown) while i was gone and closed it right when i got home, making up for that earlier loss so I am happy for the week. (TP was 10.28442, the low on my broker feed 1.28742).
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Regarding USDTRY/USDZAR strategy I'm thinking short on both. Petro Rubel / Yuan deal should see USD weakening imo, so these pairs are an ideal way to short the USD with their high yields. Short USD/RUB & USD/CNH may also be nice trades.
Attached Image


Best strategy imo would be to try and build a short position during the week and close before the weekend, and repeat this the next week. This to still take advantage of the high swap rates, and limited risk when the market is closed due to the political issues especially on USDTRY.

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  • #214
  • May 24, 2014 11:05am May 24, 2014 11:05am
I am building up a short position slowly long term, I believe this pair will continue to be down and also the rollover rates are extremely tempting. Holding it for sometime will pay for the volatility of the margin requirements etc by itself.
  • #215
  • May 25, 2014 2:17am May 25, 2014 2:17am
Quoting thevolatile
I am building up a short position slowly long term, I believe this pair will continue to be down and also the rollover rates are extremely tempting. Holding it for sometime will pay for the volatility of the margin requirements etc by itself.
Just a couple years ago I caught myself thinking along these same lines. If only it were that easy. Just remember your actual exchange rate is where a trader makes his real dough. The rate differential can be icing on the cake, but it does not predict rate movement by itself. If trading were that easy we'd all be rich. Putting all your forecasting eggs into any one basket is a bad idea, the market moves due to several dynamic factors. The more factors you have your finger on, the better off your trading will be.

Right now Turkey is gently telling us speculators what the new direction of the market should be--at least for the next 3-6 months. This is happening subtly, they will say it louder via market interventions or with further cuts next month if need be. I think we'll see 2.15-2.2 or greater by August. For the market participants who are paying attention, the prospects are exciting.
  • #216
  • May 25, 2014 7:49am May 25, 2014 7:49am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Right now Turkey is gently telling us speculators what the new direction of the market should be--at least for the next 3-6 months. This is happening subtly, they will say it louder via market interventions or with further cuts next month if need be. I think we'll see 2.15-2.2 or greater by August. For the market participants who are paying attention, the prospects are exciting.
I agree with the higher exchange rate by then (August 10 presidential election), but i do believe that it will go down some more to 2 or maybe even 1.95 and possible see some ranging around the 2 level until the election campaigns really start to take off. I imagine the Erdogan oppsotion is sitting on a pile of dirt half the size of turkey itself. I mean that scandal went out like a candle, although it should have been a raging fire, a 93 billion fraud and all the cash he had stashed away. His opponents must have thought to wait untill this election.

On USDZAR I would like to share this excerpt from the rate statement from last tuesday:
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  • #217
  • May 25, 2014 10:07am May 25, 2014 10:07am
Quoting jeffmichaels
{quote} I agree with the higher exchange rate by then (August 10 presidential election), but i do believe that it will go down some more to 2 or maybe even 1.95 and possible see some ranging around the 2 level until the election campaigns really start to take off.
Jeff, it's almost June, my friend. The next couple of months are going to fly by. We are talking about 40 trading days and some change. Fundamentally, this thing is done. You never know though, there may be some real demand that pushes this a little further south. The Japanese investors and their bond buying surprised me earlier in the month. If there are further issues in Russia we may see more of that money, but otherwise I expect speculative flow to become bullish. We'll see though, time will tell.

**Edit, just wanted to add that I believe we'll see price paint a double bottom on the daily chart. Watch for 2.075, or 2.07 to be strong support.**
  • #218
  • May 26, 2014 10:22am May 26, 2014 10:22am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Jeff, it's almost June, my friend. The next couple of months are going to fly by. We are talking about 40 trading days and some change. Fundamentally, this thing is done. You never know though, there may be some real demand that pushes this a little further south. The Japanese investors and their bond buying surprised me earlier in the month. If there are further issues in Russia we may see more of that money, but otherwise I expect speculative flow to become bullish. We'll see though, time will tell. **Edit, just wanted to add that I believe...
Yes and thansk for pointing that out in my head it appeared longer!

Did build some shorts today in USDZAR & USDTRY trying to follow the strategy I outlinned earlier, looking at the weekly chart I think it has some more room to the downside.
Both under water now, USDZAR more so than USDTRY.
  • #219
  • May 26, 2014 10:28am May 26, 2014 10:28am
Booo USDZAR with the stealth rally right after I got stopped at 10.30...


Going to wait for a daily higher high to really put on size longs for USDTRY and USDZAR. Hope you guys are having a good long wknd.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #220
  • May 26, 2014 10:55am May 26, 2014 10:55am
For me USDTRY is always a short and I am holding them longer and longer, they are really attractive if you hold them long enough, just by looking at the accumulated rollover
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